Using TA to time entries and exits

[Hoop]

The gift that keeps on giving. Although I'm a slow learner with this at times esp with the selling..

.
Simple basic KISS strategy as KW's above is effective, why people don't make money is because they think they are smart and know more than MR Market...How many times have we heard on ST the sayings "Insto's caused this downturn once they stop it will rise back up" (suggesting the insto's are stupid) same goes for blaming smaller sellers with insulting names..Strangely enough most of this type of behaviour occurs during an established downtrend.
TA are visual aids and indicators to help one clarify the state of a Stock and simple rules such as KW's above help keep us investors away from potential trouble..and try to prevent optimistic blind investors (denial state) losing more of their money by jumping out of the frying pan into the fire (averaging down in TA broken stocks**)..** Not to be confused with buying/accumulation in dips. Averaging down is a good/lesser risk strategy when TA is not broken e.g Rising primary tide (Cyclic Bull Market Cycle)

I have a printed A4 sheet hanging on my investor workplace room at home.. I refer to it often so to make sure my thinking doesn't run off on a tangent.
My sheet is too tacky to photocopy but a better list is below which has the minor anxioms in order..
CAUTION:..be careful when researching Zurich Anxioms ..over the years people have butchered it with their own bias comments included and these butchered versions have become mainstream..
For many the Zurich Axioms seem to have less relevance today as investment strategies have improved ...hence the temption for them to butcher...What must be remembered is the Zurich Anxioms are an overall generalisation of Rules...and should be considered as a better than nothing alternative than an investor operating without any Strategy and subsequent discipline at all..

The "On Patterns" reference (Axiom) to Chartist illusions is again a broad generalisation which over alll is correct. As a Chartist I has always said the TA (chart patterns included) can not predict the future..In life nothing can predict the future...but as with the FA discipline, TA can be used as a probability (better guess) tool to favour a certain scenario outcome..
Unfortunately people misinterpret the Anxiom generalised meaning and their added personal biases can be seen in the comments...
See the Anxioms thread on ST HERE. the "On Pattern" Axiom shows that piece of butchering..obviously not a TA fan,,eh...and the bias commentator (not Lou) added the most reliant of all chart patterns (85% probability) as a 'squiggly line" as the "bad" example..hilarious...What I believe is mean't, is as it says Chart illusion...simple....Illusion in charts are very real as peoples visual perceptions of pictures differ and bias plays a big role..An expert chartist usually has a "trained eye" and they often criticse articles with false illusion which forces readers to only see that illusion.....Picture illusions can be great fun.."can you see Marilyn Munroe or like most of us see only a pretty version of Albert Einstein" ..The illusion works well and if the writer didn't mention Marlyn Munroe, would the readers see Marylin straight away with a cursory glance I would say not...With published charts in biased articles a quick glance from an expert chartist with a "trained eye" would most of the time pick that up......This is why "On Patterns" includes Chart illusions yes they can be dangerous..........

Repeated history patterns are rubbish?....Hmmm I would still take the cautious approach.
Not sure about the take profits to soon as TA discipline says let your profits run...but the generalisation is correct as the anxiom assumes you have a set strategy with accompanying discipline and set targets (e.g Target price trading)..failing to stick to your plan is of course a sign of emotion (greed).

As you read below..some of these sayings are familiar...they get mentioned a lot by TA commentators..eh

The Zurich Axioms:

Black type...Major Anxioms
Blue type...Minor Anxioms

On Risk:
– Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health – if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
– Always play for meaningful stakes – if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either.
– Resist the allure of diversification.

On Greed:
– Always take your profit too soon.
– Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

On Hope:
– When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
– Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

On Forecasts:
– Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

On Patterns:
– Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly.
– Beware the historian’s trap – it is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.
– Beware the chartist’s illusion – it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
– Beware the gambler’s fallacy – there’s no such thing as “Today’s my lucky day” or “I’m hot tonight”.

On Mobility:
– Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
– Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
– Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.

On Intuition:
– A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
– Never confuse a hunch with a hope.

On the Occult:
– If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
– A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.

On Optimism & Pessimism:
– Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence mean knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.

On Consensus:
– Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.
– Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.

On Stubbornness:
– If it doesn’t pay off the first time, forget it.
– Never try to save a bad investment by “averaging down”.

On Planning:
– Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans or other people’s seriously.

[Added Comment?]..In essence these axioms point to the benefit of having an investment strategy and sticking to it, regardless of what other investors say or do. If you don’t have an investment strategy, you could do worse than adopt these principles. However, don’t be afraid to add or subtract ones according to what works for you.

[kiora]

.
Simple basic KISS strategy as KW's above is effective, why people don't make money is because they think they are smart and know more than MR Market...How many times have we heard on ST the sayings "Insto's caused this downturn once they stop it will rise back up" (suggesting the insto's are stupid) same goes for blaming smaller sellers with insulting names..Strangely enough most of this type of behaviour occurs during an established downtrend.
TA are visual aids and indicators to help one clarify the state of a Stock and simple rules such as KW's above help keep us investors away from potential trouble..and try to prevent optimistic blind investors (denial state) losing more of their money by jumping out of the frying pan into the fire (averaging down in TA broken stocks**)..** Not to be confused with buying/accumulation in dips. Averaging down is a good/lesser risk strategy when TA is not broken e.g Rising primary tide (Cyclic Bull Market Cycle)

I have a printed A4 sheet hanging on my investor workplace room at home.. I refer to it often so to make sure my thinking doesn't run off on a tangent.
My sheet is too tacky to photocopy but a better list is below which has the minor anxioms in order..
CAUTION:..be careful when researching Zurich Anxioms ..over the years people have butchered it with their own bias comments included and these butchered versions have become mainstream..
For many the Zurich Axioms seem to have less relevance today as investment strategies have improved ...hence the temption for them to butcher...What must be remembered is the Zurich Anxioms are an overall generalisation of Rules...and should be considered as a better than nothing alternative than an investor operating without any Strategy and subsequent discipline at all..

The "On Patterns" reference (Axiom) to Chartist illusions is again a broad generalisation which over alll is correct. As a Chartist I has always said the TA (chart patterns included) can not predict the future..In life nothing can predict the future...but as with the FA discipline, TA can be used as a probability (better guess) tool to favour a certain scenario outcome..
Unfortunately people misinterpret the Anxiom generalised meaning and their added personal biases can be seen in the comments...
See the Anxioms thread on ST HERE. the "On Pattern" Axiom shows that piece of butchering..obviously not a TA fan,,eh...and the bias commentator (not Lou) added the most reliant of all chart patterns (85% probability) as a 'squiggly line" as the "bad" example..hilarious...What I believe is mean't, is as it says Chart illusion...simple....Illusion in charts are very real as peoples visual perceptions of pictures differ and bias plays a big role..An expert chartist usually has a "trained eye" and they often criticse articles with false illusion which forces readers to only see that illusion.....Picture illusions can be great fun.."can you see Marilyn Munroe or like most of us see only a pretty version of Albert Einstein" ..The illusion works well and if the writer didn't mention Marlyn Munroe, would the readers see Marylin straight away with a cursory glance I would say not...With published charts in biased articles a quick glance from an expert chartist with a "trained eye" would most of the time pick that up......This is why "On Patterns" includes Chart illusions yes they can be dangerous..........

Repeated history patterns are rubbish?....Hmmm I would still take the cautious approach.
Not sure about the take profits to soon as TA discipline says let your profits run...but the generalisation is correct as the anxiom assumes you have a set strategy with accompanying discipline and set targets (e.g Target price trading)..failing to stick to your plan is of course a sign of emotion (greed).

As you read below..some of these sayings are familiar...they get mentioned a lot by TA commentators..eh

The Zurich Axioms:

Black type...Major Anxioms
Blue type...Minor Anxioms

On Risk:
– Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health – if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
– Always play for meaningful stakes – if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either.
– Resist the allure of diversification.

On Greed:
– Always take your profit too soon.
– Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

On Hope:
– When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
– Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

On Forecasts:
– Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

On Patterns:
– Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly.
– Beware the historian’s trap – it is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.
– Beware the chartist’s illusion – it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
– Beware the gambler’s fallacy – there’s no such thing as “Today’s my lucky day” or “I’m hot tonight”.

On Mobility:
– Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
– Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
– Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.

On Intuition:
– A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
– Never confuse a hunch with a hope.

On the Occult:
– If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
– A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.

On Optimism & Pessimism:
– Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence mean knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.

On Consensus:
– Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.
– Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.

On Stubbornness:
– If it doesn’t pay off the first time, forget it.
– Never try to save a bad investment by “averaging down”.

On Planning:
– Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans or other people’s seriously.

[Added Comment?]..In essence these axioms point to the benefit of having an investment strategy and sticking to it, regardless of what other investors say or do. If you don’t have an investment strategy, you could do worse than adopt these principles. However, don’t be afraid to add or subtract ones according to what works for you.

Thanks Hoop
Al good reminders

[Joshuatree]

Yes very good thanks Hoop esp for moi who has been oversupplied with spontaneity traits.

[Hoop]

We are all guilty of disobeying the golden rules and breaking our disciplines and often its happens with success during a Bull market..That's the problem, during Bull market cycles we all get taught bad habits as often they pay off..

For the newer folk (investing for 7 years or less) who have yet to experience a tough market, they would think their bad habits would be not serious enough to hurt them..eh.

Sticking to discipline using TA to time entries and exits prevents most bad habits forming..

[Hoop]

Im out. So long AIR. Its been a turbulent ride. Bought first round at $3.015 then a few times on the way down to around $2.05 at the lowest and then the last lot at $2.27 before the div was announced. Too big a gap to kake up and i dont have the time to wait. Unfortunate but im new to this and have learned a lot. I have a reasonably small amount of capital so have put it all in FNZ, MDZ, and DIV. Will continue to learn and build. Thanks to all for your comments, help and discussion on AIR over the last 4 months.

All thise still in, enjoy the ride and i wish you luck.

Im green at this game. How do you know when your not in a down trend? Are there indicators that the bottom has likely been reached?

I will probably buy back in if it goes to the $1.80 mark.

Hmmm...I wonder how many other less experienced investors have had there fingers burn't on this downtrending stock by getting sucked in with all the hype from certain members...Some are reputable members too and this annoys me...as I have to give advice saying "never trust anyone on ST not even high reputation members and because of my statement I have to include myself now ...so sad how the some ST threads can destroy all of our reputations..and fail to protect the newer less experienced investors..It use to be PEB but now the AIR thread can take the honours as being a portfolio dangerous place on ST


Enough on that subject as my feelings run hot and if I rant on I might get banned.

So..to adjust or not adjust?

The major consensus is yes..adjust

Adjust because most TAers use simple defaulted indicators and if you are in this category then adjust...Usually dividends are small and don't effect too much but occasionally you get the special dividends which can be sizeable (e.g AIR) and will play havoc on most indicators and result in firing false sell signals.

Sounds easy ..eh?..Actually the answer is maybe maybe not.....The problem is relying on the accuracy of the free data we acquire..Yahoo as far as I'm aware adjusts for dividends as a default but not for splits nor special dividends..so..over time yahoo data concerning large dividend yielding stocks could be viewed as a pile of crap rendering charts as junk..unfortunately Incredible Charts uses Yahoo for NZ stocks and NZ stocks are Globally well known as high yeilding stocks...so ..

Luckily for us wanting freebies, Big Charts doesn't use Yahoo data so we can double check our program charts with Big Charts..

Of course all those problems disappear (mostly) If you use paid chart programs and buy raw data .g Metastock.....but as 90% of us are TA dabblers why pay out all this expense, when overall the free stuff although not accurate its is generally OK..

The disadvantages of adjustments are the true historic prices are no longer accurate,,e,g the chart shows highest (top) price was $3.84 5 years ago ..then someone writes on the forum saying that the chart is BS because I remember selling out at $4.05...so an argument develops over who's right and who's wrong...The answer is, both are right, but to a layman a newbie or a TA hater they will not except that answer as in their reality there can be only one right answer and so TA usually gets relegated to the "don't believe the squiggly lines stupidness" basket..

So...why use adjusted prices if they are not real...TA is based on trader behaviour and therefore TA indicators must not be warped by a ex dividend price or any other theoretical adjustment...Reasoning... the sudden drop is not due to investor behaviour its due to a theoretical price adjustment..

Can we use non adjusted data for charting?...Yes...I do this a lot when not relying on TA indicators... I am a Chartist and often work with chart patterns (see chart example below) that under certain circumstances is more useful using unadjusted than adjusted...Also theoretically adjusting the price downward before ex date (red dotted lines) can help to see invisible support and resistance line come into play...My chart example with AIR below relates to the question, "Will the market except the very big special dividend as positive news"..You don't look at the AIR thread to find market sentiment instead you DYO analysis and drawing a chart can help...e.g you see that the original opening price from on the day of the fantastic best ever result announcement (26th August) actually fell from $2.24 to $2.15 and looked to have broken support..But did it?...most TA'ers don't believe in pre-adjustments but I do find them useful under certain circumstances, this time I found that the $2.15 - $0.35 = $1.80 ex div happened to be the major support..once the price reached that 2.15 it slowly rose indicating a rare buy signal on my personal pre-adjusted chart....

I drew the chart on announcement day with the beginning of the red dotted lines added being the morning of the 26th August and the 2.15 pre-adjusted to 1.80 after the 0.35c div announcement result...

My continuing red line was a possible outcome line...reasoning,why I should be predicting a possible future when I say TA can't predict futures?....A H&S pattern is the most common of patterns and also happen the be the most reliable...so with AIR announcing less profit next year logic says possible a bear pattern scenario should be studied..if AIR deviates away from the pattern who cares no harm done and also it could indicate AIR is moving in a bullish way...

Anyway the chart is below with its possible un-adjusted scenario...un-adjusted because I pre-adjusted it before ex div..

Also another reason to leave the share price with special dividends + dividends un-adjusted is when we are using the chart for capital information (remember adjust to find market (behaviour) information)..The reasoning here is that AIR has taken a $400M financial hit..the chart viewpoint with un-adjusted price data is unbiased analysis..it does matter if the money when to shareholders, tax penalties, asset write down or lost by fraud..it is viewed as AIR being suddenly $400M poorer...

Un-adjusted charts can have all sorts of patterns, some show caution which can be masked on adjusted charts.

So do you adjust charts for dividends etc?.....answer, yes, no,.... maybe

Chart below was drawn on the 26th August and sent to 3 ST members who PMed me confirming if my charts like theirs were triggering a sell signal..my reply was my chart below is saying the announcement drop is probably a short term buy opportunity and the opportunity window is starting to close with DYO analyses disclosure

[Baa_Baa]

Good post Hoop. We strayed into this very topic on AIR when I posted a monthly price chart. OldGuy reckons it is "flawed" and "misleading" because it does not include dividends, and therefore it is bogus TA. I disagreed.

Attachment 8322

I think that where the difference in opinion comes about is that a price chart is true to the 'market price' of the shares, which is useful or some might say essential, for choosing buy or sell points. The market price is what we pay or get, it is the price now and the chart shows that historically. We can only buy or sell the market price which is what TA charts.

Including dividends is a 'value' view, the gross value, similar to an Index, which may be of interest to an investor, assuming they add the dividend to the share price. It is a portfolio view, like ShareSight for example includes value charts over time. I don't see the relevance to TA.

[Hoop]

There are all sorts of TA ways, not just the well known conventional types ...

Most investors rely on FA with a passing curious interest with TA, they may use the common variety TA to support their view to buy a stock..if TA doesn't support their view many still buy that stock anyway ..in other words when it comes to buying and selling, push or shove, they trust their own decisions, emotions and all, over that of TA ..

Most investors only see the Universal "best fit" chart default indicators... they have a quick look and if the indicators don't conform with their stocks they disregard the entire TA discipline as nothing more than squiggly lines..To other investors that treat TA more seriously or sympathetically the acid test is to ask yourself "Could you buy a stock/company that you have absolutely no idea what it does based solely on a mass of sudden triggered TA buy signals?".

Back to indicators with default values....As every investor knows..there's no such thing as a normal value..life couldn't be any further away from a perfect world... so theories are guidelines...same for FA..same for TA ...charting programs contain indicators with default values that are set with the medium term in mind together with a "universal best fit" back test result ...therefore they too are considered the guidelines...

For many stocks a "universal best fit" default is not good enough...and many of us TAer's act as detectives and tinker with the indicator values to " individually best suit" our stock that we are interested in..Some Free charting programs allow indicator values to be changed. Incredible Charts is one..All one needs to do is understand how the indicator formulae works and how to change the settings the correct way..See Incredible chart website e.g click on Accumulation Distribution (indicator), then scroll down that new opened page to setup and Edit indicator settings...

All investors should remember that Price on a chart is also a chart indicator and most investors are used to the price being altered to allow for dividends etc,,,so why not other indicators...eh?

Altering indicator values to suit is fun...All TA investors should at least try it..some TAer's have made a lot of money out of custom fitting their stocks investments....Some TAer's with sophisticated chart programs (Metastock) formulate many indicators together to form one super indicator..the realms of possibilities are endless...

A few years ago a ST member (I think it was Trackers) used 2 moving averages together I think one was MA165 not sure of the other MA?? (30?) ..anyway the crossovers were the signals and he found it was very successful with certain stocks....Most of us know about the MA200/MA50 crossovers the Golden and Death Crosses which most TAer's find the signals fire too late to be useful (the stable door is open and the horses have already bolted )..It is used as a longer term indicator but it's not uncommon to see a Death Cross (bearish) replaced by a Golden Cross (bullish) a few weeks later because the price went up not down...

So BaaBaa..we should be allowed to fiddle around with the chart price to suit us best, and if back testing says its a very successful unconventional indicator, then it's very hard for the Purists and the lesser informed folk to say our methods are wrong....eh?

Maybe.. in the future, us TAer's may get to use the BaaBaa indicator ............I jest not... as it has been done before on ST.... TA Guru Phaedrus developed a very good super indicator, arguably the world's best MSI (Market Strength Indicator) to use with the Metastock Chart program..He used to publish MSI charts (mostly NZX50 AORDS indexes) on this Forum..sadly most of his charts have since expired and can't be viewed anymore...

[Hoop]

Here you go, a Monthy chart. Sometimes it helps to step back and look at the long term, this is the monthly chart. It's not really all that encouraging is it? To me it looks like 1.80 - 1.75 is pretty good support but who knows what will happen below that. Probably nothing to do with AIR fundamentals, more about SP risk reward at this stage.

Attachment 8321

I'm sorry, but this chart (and your interpretation of it) is totally flawed/misleading because it isn't adjusted for the massive dividend just received by all holders. I really hope people don't make TA decisions by putting silly lines on unadjusted charts like this. I mean, really!

So, how do you interpret the 35c drop caused by the dividend, which shows as a massive negative red candle? The chart gives the impression of a very bad turn of events, which is clearly misleading. But yeah, you keep doing what you do. TA can certainly be useful when done properly, which your chart is not (IMHO).

Hmmm ..I hope I don't regret posting this...The last thing I want is to devalue KW's thread..and don't want to be seen as disrepectful of Old Guy's opinions of TA..Everyone has differing interpretations, opinions and viewpoints...

First things first.... this is my viewpoint....BaaBaa has presented a AIR chart that has Yahoo data. Yahoo data I'm told has price adjustments for dividends, but not for Special Dividends, nor splits/consolidations there doesn't appear to be any adjustment tool available on IC using Yahoo data...but this is not necessarily a bad thing...as the chart is constructed as a "near capital" price chart..I'm personally fond of Pure Capital price charts (rare on free web charting programs)..as they show the historic real shareprice, the same price you see on your portfolio..the price you paid to buy the share, the price you received for selling the share....not some fancy calculated by equation adjusted price...
Capital price Chart should line up with the bought/sold prices in your Stock Portfolio and show the historic rise and fall (trends) of the real price...An investor can look back in history and relate chart price with portfolio price and do appropriate analysis....My portfolio has extended windows to show dividends and specials and other types of cash flow and its all totaled up...so no need for adjustment of chart prices

Old Guy quote: "...The chart gives the impression of a very bad turn of events, which is clearly misleading..."
Hmmm...depends on which side of the fence you are on....On a Capital price chart I disagree..it is not misleading..Air as a company did suffer a bad event, it lost $392 Million and about $22 Million more in staff bonuses and miscellaneous bits and pieces..The market takes a rational viewpoint, it saw AIR ~$410M poorer as of 8th September and the market price corrected accordingly....The market doesn't care if that money went to IRD, Justice Department as a fine, got stolen, or given away to shareholders..There is no argument AIR is ~$410M poorer..it happened......Many use an assumption argument that AIR will gain that amount back in 2017...maybe it will...maybe it won't...As it hasn't happened yet it can not be 100% factored in...The market will anticipate something as markets are forward looking..maybe the AGM will give the market a 2017 disclosure and the market capital price will factor that disclosure in...but until the market re-rates on upcoming news, the AIR share price will continue to reflect that $410M financial hit..

The unadjusted share price re: dividend can trigger sell signals...Often they don't...In AIRs case the special dividend was very large and it did triggered the sensitive indicators the stoch's the DMI..The momentum was hit after ex date more likely due to lack of dividend hunters..The money flow indicators did not react much..so overall the very large special dividend did not trigger sell signals on masse...
Also, something to watch for is a company over-extending its payout to it's shareholders ..if the payout is too large and the market perceives that action will hurt future growth performance of the company it will show up much clearer on an unadjusted price chart....

So yeah Capital Price charts are an useful tool in all sorts of ways ....A Chartist can be a detective and dig into deep history decades ago in finding out of how much a certain person spent on a certain share buy ups/sell downs...something which can't be done with adjusted price data charts..When it comes to history a chart is worth more than a 1000 words.

There's always pluses and minuses...The other side of the coin is adjusted charts...They are important so the TA price factor indicators don't become unreliable and trigger false sell signals.. A TAer will need to adjust the price chart so not to make a wrong TA decision.....One flaw with adjusting price charts over a long period of time is a chartist doesn't know the real price of tops bottoms, gaps or any trigger price in between..so S&R lines can be a causality...
The biggest flaw is human error to interpret its correct uses, most people use adjusted charts as Capital charts with the assumption that all dividends, special dividends,etc are reinvested back into the company by the shareholder.....This we all know doesn't happen as most investors use dividends as disposable income...therefore adjusted price charts creates an undetectable capital bias...

Then (apologies to Old Guy) we get investors arguing about which TA price method to use..most are due to self - interest, especially intense arguments when the investor sees their investment tracking the downtrend and the un-adjustment makes it seem worse..but really it you wanted a very large special dividend then you should be prepared for a large price correction on ex div day...wouldn't you think??..yeah yeah we all know the price went down but you got compensated, us TA investors aren't stupid..

Non-Adjustment makes a shareholder investment seem worse....Yes true... the dividend may make up for the capital loss..but it's only entirely true if and only if that dividend (capital converted to cash) is re-invested (converted back to Capital)..For an investor who holds that stock it makes them feel better to see an adjusted price chart...eh?

So who's right in this AIR thread argument BaaBaa or Old Guy?.....Answer both!!..

How useful is their argument regarding AIR on the AIR thread?....Answer About as useful as tits on a bull.

Which method is better adjusted or unadjusted ?? ..Answer... both have their uses.

Which method would a TAer prefer?....."ummmm..let me flip a coin....If a TAer is mostly reliant on TA indicators then adjusted price is better. Most investors use simple TA with basic default indicators so I would take an educated guess and say 85% of investors would vote for adjusted price charts as being better......A Chartist like me, would vote unadjusted price charts as better option.. again it is self interest as I use chart pattern analysis.. a lot of S&R lines analysis and look for gaps.eg Common gaps, breakaway gaps, exhaustion gaps, runaway gaps, dividend gaps...(ahh..hahh dividend price gaps!!! ..yep now you got the picture..eh )

Addition: Here is the AIR thread link to Paper Tiger's Adjusted Non -adjusted AIR chart comparisions.. since that post the adjusted price chart has broken its medium term up trend.

[Jay]

Thanks Hoop - good post, appreciate all the effort you go to

[dobby41]

I think that is about the sum of it Hoop - nice summary.