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  1. #301
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    Default Low Volume

    Is the low volume on this recovery typical ?

  2. #302
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    Is the low volume on this recovery typical ?
    Only when its not convincing

  3. #303
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Only when its not convincing
    And is it ?

  4. #304
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    The low volume tends to indicate that its not convincing
    https://marketrealist.com/2014/12/in...ical-analysis/
    Last edited by kiora; 17-04-2020 at 08:30 PM.

  5. #305
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    Default

    Thanks, that's my understanding also but is it a true reflection of a weak recovery ?

  6. #306
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    Thanks, that's my understanding also but is it a true reflection of a weak recovery ?
    Share values yes,economy maybe

  7. #307
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    Refreshing KW's excellent basic T/A for dummies(including me


    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

    1. When to BUY
    I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

    Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
    Attachment 4517


    2. When to TOP UP
    Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

    MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

    Attachment 4518

    Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
    Attachment 4519

    3. When to SELL
    The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

    ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
    Attachment 4520

    I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.

  8. #308
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    An excellent post by the true legend KW who is sadly missed on here.
    I use 30 day, (put on or take off a half sized position) and 100 day, (put on or take off the other half) moving averages as indicators to support my fundamental analysis.
    If FA and TA both look good then far more often than not there is serious money to be made. On the other hand if FA is in question and TA looks terrible that's one's clue to stay out !
    Buying stocks in a confirmed downtrend (see 6 month chart I posted for ATM this morning as one example), is an absolute mug's game especially when FA is so uncertain.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-02-2021 at 08:54 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    An excellent post by the true legend KW who is sadly missed on here.
    I use 30 day, (put on or take off a half sized position) and 100 day, (put on or take off the other half) moving averages as indicators to support my fundamental analysis.
    If FA and TA both look good then far more often than not there is serious money to be made. On the other hand if FA is in question and TA looks terrible that's one's clue to stay out !
    Buying stocks in a confirmed downtrend (see 6 month chart I posted for ATM this morning as one example), is an absolute mug's game especially when FA is so uncertain.
    Do you use only a 6 months period? I have had the chance to ask KW and she uses 1 year. So I would like to read your comments.

  10. #310
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    She has her way of doing things and does very well and is a lovely person too and anyone who is still in contact with her is blessed. I am always pleased to hear from her.

    I follow my own nose for GARP stocks, (growth at a reasonable price) primarily following my own unique formula for finding growth and paying very little for it. No growth PE of 11 + 1 extra PE for each percent of growth I think a company can sustainable grow at in the next 7-10 years). My favorite hunting ground is to try and find free growth stocks or nearly free, (who doesn't like a free feed), like HLG where by my estimate they are trading on a forward PE of just 11-12 and you get the growth for free.

    At my heart I'm a fundamental analysis person, (whereas I think KW is mainly a momentum investor). I tend to overlay TA on top of my FA rather than the other way round and use TA as either confirmation of my FA or a warning that something isn't. I find the 30 day and 100 day indicators most useful for me, doing the half size full size position thing as each indicator signals a change but others take a longer view with their TA and do just as well, like KW. She likes Chi Wawa's, I like Beagles and Terriers, both dog lovers but each to their own variety lol.

    Whatever works for you mate, keep doing it
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-02-2021 at 01:46 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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