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Thread: ZEL - Z Energy.

  1. #1451
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    Total all industry fuel volumes down 4.78% on pcp and Z group total fuel volumes down 5.62% so we are talking < 1% market loss all inclusive. Which is largely due to Caltex petrol dropping 19.28%. Z diesel is actually up 2.63% on pcp... while again caltex diesel dropping by 7.32%. So really Caltex is the let down at the moment.

    Looking at retail (typically higher margin than fuel), there is a 7.41% increase in store only transactions. This is also reflected in average weekly store sales which are up 7.88% (6.99% like for like), which across 202 stations accounts to over $600k per week increase in spending just in the shop. Seems people are still looking for service and fuel, not just unmanned stations.

    I'll believe peak oil consumption in NZ when I see the evidence, one contraction does not a trend make.

  2. #1452
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Antipodean View Post

    Total all industry fuel volumes down 4.78% on pcp and Z group total fuel volumes down 5.62% so we are talking < 1% market loss all inclusive. ............
    Antipodean - Gull volumes not in industry volumes now ...so share loss greater than you state

    from announcement, after allowing for Gull - Z estimates that total industry volumes declined by -1.8% year over year.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #1453
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    why is one player not included in industry statistics.
    defeats the purpose doesnt it?
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  4. #1454
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    why is one player not included in industry statistics.
    defeats the purpose doesnt it?
    Ask Caltex Australia who own Gull.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #1455
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Ask Caltex Australia who own Gull.
    all the majors (and the distributors and dealers they supply) get their fuel from the shared storage and NZ refining. the majors shared this data between themselves. so the majors have a real good handle on their respective shares by region, terminal, etc. but Gull is wholly separate - they import their own into Mt Mauganui and distribute to their stations and a few other clients they supply. the majors know less accurately what Gull has imported and sold. From the majors' perspective, in many counts, the whole system worked better before Gull got involved.

  6. #1456
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Is this Z pleading poverty and ‘looking’ for support

    All that discounting and market share still trending down ....hmmm

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119...nmanned-effect
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #1457
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Is this Z pleading poverty and ‘looking’ for support

    All that discounting and market share still trending down ....hmmm

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119...nmanned-effect
    but it also supports the view that they were ripping off the market earlier when there was less competition. so Jacinda was right about fleecing.
    And it also shows that the free market will attend to destroying super profits (over time)
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  8. #1458
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Is this Z pleading poverty and ‘looking’ for support

    All that discounting and market share still trending down ....hmmm

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119...nmanned-effect
    Prognosis is grim. When the loyalty scheme changed from August ? 2019 Z for the first time allowed the "stacking" of discounts and I predicted this would lead to a significant impact on their margins and sure enough its happened. There's been a massive move up from about 8 cents per liter average discount to roughly double that level now.
    Its simple enough to sign up to their email reminder system and they let you know when they have their 10 cent off days. Buy just $40 of petrol and stack your 10 cent discount each time and effectively you get $5 off (10 cents a liter stacked for future purchase of 50 liters) that $40 or effectively a 12.5% discount off each $40 purchase. 12.5% off is effectively as much as 28 cents per liter (at $2.259 per liter) when you use all that stacked discount later, although it is somewhat ameliorated because to claim the discount you need to buy 50 liters and at that time you only get 10 cents per liter off.

    I only drive modest mileage and find its typically quite easy to get $1 per liter off when you use your stacked discounts to purchase 50 liters every second month.
    I think their discount will get slightly worse from here through this stacking thing as people get more used to taking maximum advantage of it, and more discounting from having to compete with unmanned stations and they are probably shooting themselves in the foot a bit with this new sharetank as well.

    Despite this stacking thing the way Caltex in particular has lost market share with its petrol sales is really quite confronting.
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-01-2020 at 09:34 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #1459
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Beagle - bit of a worry when a CEO says ‘Rather than abandon the 'nice coffee-clean toilets-forecourt service' model Z was founded on, Bennetts says the company is trying to introduce a range of discount products for its more price-conscious customers. ’

    So nice coffee and clean toilets AND A DECENT DISCOUNT.

    It all seems rather confusing from a making money perspective
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #1460
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    Looks like we're past "peak fuel" too and with a wide range of new and hopefully more affordable electric vehicles coming onto the market over the next few years along with the N.Z. Govt incentive for EV's of as much as $8,000 each, and with more and more unmanned stations coming on stream its more difficult to see the investment case as being worthwhile.

    Suppose they could find another electricity minnow to throw a quick $50m at and that might be the panacea of all their problems

    If I was running ZEL I think the best way to confront the EV thing is to install fast chargers at ALL ZEL stations thereby leveraging significant amounts of coffee, snacks and ice-cream sales while EV owners charge their cars up. There's going to be a chronic shortage of EV fast charging stations in the years ahead, mark my words.
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-01-2020 at 10:06 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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