ZEL - Z Energy.

[peat]

And the weekly report figures from 24th are not showing any further material improvement in volume in any of the classes - the current levels would appear to me to be about 90% of pre covid and stagnant at best
Except for jet fuel which is climbing slowly but still only at 30%

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12342949 Paywalled article - Very challenging.

[tango]

I'm wishing I had sold some shares at the recent high

I will be hoping the most recent week's volume trade is up.

[trader_jackson]

and the raising is to be kicked off at $2.75? I wouldn't pay $2 for the shape Z Energy is in... income uncertain and in recovery mode for the next few years, no dividend now till (crossing fingers) FY22 and dividends unlikely to be as big as they were for a very long time, 6 cent NTA topped off by a terrible balance sheet post capital raising (putting it lightly)

Just thought I'd check in to see how this SPP had gone and just over 2 months later, it hasn't gone well... while most SPP's are trading at a health premium, ZEL is trading at a decent discount to the $2.90 the raising was done at. No surprise really, but interesting to check up on.

[Paradox]

Just thought I'd check in to see how this SPP had gone and just over 2 months later, it hasn't gone well... while most SPP's are trading at a health premium, ZEL is trading at a decent discount to the $2.90 the raising was done at. No surprise really, but interesting to check up on.

If one looks at a recovery in 3-4 years, then ZEL is trading at a big discount to fair value. If you can look past the lack of dividend, then patience will be rewarded.

My strategy is to go long on their shares and short the derivatives.

[King1212]

One always said go long....but when the market lost 1/3 of the value as what people predict this end of the year....what would u do when u see your capital under water for 3 to 4 years?

[Paradox]

One always said go long....but when the market lost 1/3 of the value as what people predict this end of the year....what would u do when u see your capital under water for 3 to 4 years?

yes, if your $$ can get a better return elsewhere in the meantime, then it is a no-brainer to sell out and return in a year.

From what I could see, the balance sheet is looking better now, management is turning things around, gross margin increasing (?)...

Just need the tourism back. Waiting game....

Disc: have a small holding

[BlackPeter]

Just thought I'd check in to see how this SPP had gone and just over 2 months later, it hasn't gone well... while most SPP's are trading at a health premium, ZEL is trading at a decent discount to the $2.90 the raising was done at. No surprise really, but interesting to check up on.

My thoughts as well. Pretty shocking SP trend. Looks like a textbook example for a downtrend and Covid was just the icing on the cake.

SP still a year ago above $7, SPP 2 months ago at $2.90 and further slip to $2.74 now.

Attachment 11792

Question is where are they going from here? Unlikely the newly build discount petrol stations going away anytime soon. Here go the margins. Unlikely traffic through tourism recovers anytime soon (and unlikely ever to the previous 100%). Here goes the volume. Unless National takes over unlikely as well we see a significant investment into roads vs rail and boat, but instead into greener methods of transport. Another nail into ZEL's coffin.

While they might allow for some trading gains at some stage in the future, in my view unlikely they can sustainably recover. Decided to move the ticker from my "maybe at some stage again" watch list to my "just for curiosity" watch list. Last station before they disappear into the share ticker nirvana.

[Beagle]

These guys are growing very fast https://www.npd.co.nz/npd-announces-...pansion-plans/

I have called ZEL a SELL for a very long time now and have been right. I have increasingly taken a dim view of their management capability and overhead cost structure.
I see it going lower and testing all time $2.50 lows in due course. Without a dividend until at earliest October 2021 in my view there's highly likely to be more bad news about market share and margin erosion before then and any dividends the company may be able to pay in the future are likely to be a pale shadow of what they were previously.

Jet fuel demand recovery is highly likely to excruciatingly slow and unlikely to ever recover to previous level's.

The company still has massive debt and shareholders appear to be on a journey with this one that ostensibly amounts to a hiding to nothing.
As BP has noted above the chart looks absolutely terrible.

[Leftfield]

I'm with Beagle and Black Peter on Z. To me Z is a classic dividend yield trap where holders cling to their holding in the face of a declining SP justifying it by the possibility of a dividend.

If holders lift their eyes, they will see lots of headwinds for Z which the company is not facing up to. Frankly your investment in what was once seen as a 'safe and secure' investment is no longer either.

(Disc - never held Z. )