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Thread: ZEL - Z Energy.

  1. #751
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Welcome aboard mate. Based on mid point of divvy forecast of 42.5 cps and the interim one paid of 12.5 cps the next divvy looks like a whopper at 30 cps !
    Dividends effectively providing free fuel for the Iceman clan going forward I presume
    As you know, the majority of our fuel comes of the solar panels but yes the divies will cover the little bit of petrol we use :-)

  2. #752
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    yes, it bodes well for the higher target in time. ($6.85)
    still boding like a serious boding thing
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #753
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    As you know, the majority of our fuel comes of the solar panels but yes the divies will cover the little bit of petrol we use :-)
    You're as cunning as a wily fox. I am sure Mrs Iceman will have no trouble dreaming up new idea's to spend the rest of your divvies
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #754
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    You're as cunning as a wily fox. I am sure Mrs Iceman will have no trouble dreaming up new idea's to spend the rest of your divvies
    You pretty cunning as well ....pleased with your 15% return so far with ZEL
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #755
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    This is an interesting read .......On the Ebb and Flow of Luck

    https://ofdollarsanddata.com/fickle-fortune/
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #756
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    at this point of time it looks like timely exit yesterday that 6 dollar mark brought out the sellers. maybe because they didnt grab back a huge chunk of the downgrade profits mentioned in nov and the 15m gained back can just as easliy reverse again
    one step ahead of the herd

  7. #757
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    guess the div will attract plenty of punters so maybe it will go higher in the immediate future to reflect this even if it still a long term decline so still keep a few
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #758
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    Event analysis

    Oil Price Relief for No-Moat Z Energy with Earnings Guidance Increased. FVE Upgraded to NZD 8.30.
    Z Energy has upwardly revised fiscal 2019 earnings guidance by around 5% to NZD 420-450 million in replacement cost, or RC, EBITDA, accounting for a decline in the crude price and reversal of the price lag. In a falling crude market, Z Energy enjoys better retail and commercial trading conditions as fuel becomes cheaper for customers, and reduced their price-sensitivity shifts consumption towards full-service offerings. Prior to crude's retreat, Z Energy had been experiencing the most challenging operating environment in its eight-year history. But Brent fell 40% to December, from a high of USD 86 to USD 51 per barrel, providing some relief. We recently reiterated earnings detractors were short term in nature only. Recovery is now underway, though not soon enough to completely recover fiscal 2019 earnings. Z Energy previously made two earnings guidance cuts from an original RC EBITDA guidance estimate of NZD 450-485 million. Latest guidance is still around 7% below that original midpoint.

    Z says crude markets remain volatile with Brent already having risen back above USD 60. Upgraded guidance assumes crude remains within a range of USD 60-70 per barrel for the remainder of the fiscal year to March. DPS guidance is also increased to NZD 0.38-0.47, inclusive of the interim NZD 0.125 paid in December. Z had previously downgraded DPS to an unspecified range, from an original target of NZD 0.50-0.55. Our DPS forecast had overoptimistically remained at the high end of expectations.

    Our new fiscal 2019 RC EBITDA and dividend forecasts are set at guidance midrange levels of NZD 435 million and NZD 0.425; changes of plus 14% and minus 5%, respectively. We had been expecting a higher dividend payout ratio of 110% versus 83% now. Our fiscal 2019 EPS forecasts increases 25% to NZD 0.51. Fiscal 2020 is little changed at NZD 0.60. Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share, largely equivalent to time value of money.

    Morningstar 23/1/19
    Last edited by BlackCross; 24-01-2019 at 11:45 AM.

  9. #759
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    From BP's post - Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share,

    Love the talk of $8.30 ...even though its been up close to that before
    Last edited by winner69; 24-01-2019 at 11:55 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #760
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    From BP's post - Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share,

    Love the talk of $8.30 ...even though its been up close to that before
    BlackCross not BlackPeter!

    another up day today.... yesterday was the first red candle on my chart for a long time - inevitable that there was one sooner or later

    Attachment 10278

    we may need the overbought factor visible in the indicators to ease off before next targets of 161% extension and further are achievable.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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