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Thread: ZEL - Z Energy.

  1. #1091
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Happy to continue to take a prudent approach to risk management mate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_frontier

    I really think Morningstar are miles off beam. Average valuation was $6.91 and it will be interesting to see where this ends up in a week or so when the analysts have all had a chance to crunch the numbers and revise their forecasts. https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...098/consensus/
    Hmmm risk management, yeah I reckon we have a different approach both on and off the skifield aye.

  2. #1092
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Hmmm risk management, yeah I reckon we have a different approach both on and off the skifield aye.
    Couts - a worry that beagle is reading up efficient frontiers and all those clever things
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #1093
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    savage selling on the close to finish on the lows. wonder how many were buying into that afternoon fake bounce?
    one step ahead of the herd

  4. #1094
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Hmmm risk management, yeah I reckon we have a different approach both on and off the skifield aye.
    LOL, true that, I'm a pretty conservative dog that is keen to come back with all four paws intact and a waggly tail...don't forget what happened to Michael Schumacher on the ski field

    Anyway back to ZEL. They were the dearest in Queenstown too. Can't say I was surprised in the slightest. Remember their marketing punch line "Z is for New Zealand"...bit disingenuous to leave the word "shareholders" off the end of that punch line isn't it ! One guess who is paying for their feel good "Good in the hood community project funding program" Clue, it isn't the company.

    I wasn't aware that they are alleged to have been manipulating their fuel discount loyalty program by raising the prices just before 10 cent pumped days as I don't fuel up at Z. Must admit even though I am quite cynical by nature, if this is true it surprises me they would stoop that low...
    Last edited by Beagle; 13-09-2019 at 04:12 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #1095
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Couts - a worry that beagle is reading up efficient frontiers and all those clever things
    Wow blast from the past. That brings back memories of MOFI 201 or was it MOFI 310. Markowitz or something along those lines. That is some serious mathematical wizardry going on there.

    But Beagle if you are going to follow this theory... pretty much you put your money into the whole market. (Ie index) No more picking stocks for you :P

  6. #1096
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    Wow. 20 million dollars worth of shares exchanged hands today. I hope new holders not gonna sell for some time.

  7. #1097
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    $21m+ Usually a bad sign when it falls so much on very high volume.
    Last time I bought at $5.20 late last year it was on a forecast gross yield of 15% and there was no known risk from exiting from the loyalty scheme and Jacinda wasn't on a rampage regarding fuel company margins, (enquiry was live but Jascinda wasn't in full attack calling the fuel companies as "fleecing" N.Z. Motorists).
    At present the forecast gross forecast yield at $5.53 and assuming the mid point of dividends 49 cents fully imputed = 49 / 0.72 = 68.05 / 553 = 12.3%.
    I just don't know how long the excessive discounting will last, nobody does but I do know consumers are very resistant to change, (basic human psychology), so my central theme is heavier discounting for longer.

    Then there's Jacinda who will be absolutely desperate to make political capital out of the fuel companies after effectively wiping out vast amounts of her political capital this week. Even though interest rates are a lot lower this year than last I think I'd need to see very close to that 15% again to get me tempted to buy back in given the extra risks this time. 68.05 / 0.15 suggests $4.54 as an apparently attractive point where all currently known risks are well and truly fully factored into the share price.

    I remain of the view that last year's low of $5.18 is going to be tested in due course and it wouldn't surprise me if it charts a new lower low from there.
    Keeping my powder dry at this stage.
    Last edited by Beagle; 13-09-2019 at 05:31 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #1098
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    $21m+ Usually a bad sign when it falls so much on very high volume.
    Last time I bought at $5.20 late last year it was on a forecast gross yield of 15% and there was no known risk from exiting from the loyalty scheme and Jacinda wasn't on a rampage regarding fuel company margins, (enquiry was live but Jascinda wasn't in full attack calling the fuel companies as "fleecing" N.Z. Motorists).
    At present the forecast gross forecast yield at $5.53 and assuming the mid point of dividends 49 cents fully imputed = 49 / 0.72 = 68.05 / 553 = 12.3%.
    I just don't know how long the excessive discounting will last, nobody does but I do know consumers are very resistant to change, (basic human psychology), so my central theme is heavier discounting for longer.

    Then there's Jacinda who will be absolutely desperate to make political capital out of the fuel companies after effectively wiping out vast amounts of her political capital this week. Even though interest rates are a lot lower this year than last I think I'd need to see very close to that 15% again to get me tempted to buy back in given the extra risks this time. 68.05 / 0.15 suggests $4.54 as an apparently attractive point where all currently known risks are well and truly fully factored into the share price.

    I remain of the view that last year's low of $5.18 is going to be tested in due course and it wouldn't surprise me if it charts a new lower low from there.
    Keeping my powder dry at this stage.
    IMO, going as low as 5.18 is usually a good incentive to test the 5. ...as for myself, will buy another 1253 below 5, say around 4.93...maybe an outlier, but usually, they have a good chance to be in the money. As long as panic persists, this may have a good chance of success

    Oh hold on you talk about 4.54 well let's do it.

    IMO, if price really goes below 5, then further price direction will depend on how price will try to trade above 5 again. A weak recovery above 5 will indicate failure and the most likely outcome will be 4.75 or 4.50.
    Last edited by ananda77; 13-09-2019 at 06:25 PM.

  9. #1099
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    "...........

    I wasn't aware that they are alleged to have been manipulating their fuel discount loyalty program by raising the prices just before 10 cent pumped days as I don't fuel up at Z. Must admit even though I am quite cynical by nature, if this is true it surprises me they would stoop that low...
    Suppose you believe in the tooth fairy as well or is it as the stuff article says just coincidence

    Was $2.36 at Z in Wellington last night ....that’ll put a rein on overall consumer spending
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    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #1100
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Suppose you believe in the tooth fairy as well or is it as the stuff article says just coincidence

    Was $2.36 at Z in Wellington last night ....that’ll put a rein on overall consumer spending
    And $2.12 just 30k up the road at Z Upper Hutt. Lol

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