ZEL - Z Energy.

[ananda77]

so far, around 5 for a permanent risk premium in crude should be it, considering the current oil glut. To cover global risk and with global debt in default, long bonds seems to be a better option to cover risk. Euroschatz Cash trading at the 200 MA on the daily time frame...and net long gold taking profit on the short side at 1379.7

[boysy]

Think that’s being a bit optimistic the market still believes what SA is saying that they will have the facility back up and running in the short term - not sure if you have seen the videos but it looks a lot worse damage than SA are reporting public ally anyway ....

[Jay]

[QUOTE=peat;771570]Pak N Save uses fuel supplied by Z (in case you didn't realise)[/QUOTE
I knew they changed from BP to Mobil or other way around, did not realise has changed again, not used them for a little while, as local Caltex was the cheapest around most of the time (before discounts). Z still a couple of cents dearer most days than the Pak n Save which is more or less next to them.


Cameron Bagrie economist reputedly saying could go to $3 - bit OTT I think, other sources saying 10cents if it is longer term.
Will be interesting to see how fast they put it up - good excuse too!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12267969

Oil up 19pc last I saw - these things tend to overshoot though, does not help us in the short term (price wise)

Disc: Not holding at present

[BlackPeter]

Pak N Save uses fuel supplied by Z (in case you didn't realise)

Who cares who supplies the fuel? Most of it is anyway coming out of the the same tap in Marsden point ...

Only difference is the price ...

[winner69]

And the nzd collapsing won’t help pump prices

[winner69]

A high oil price is good for Z — isn’t it?

AA says we need to brace for petrol hikes next week

High oil price must be good for Z

Share price on way back up again

[Beagle]

Think there's some sweet spot range, from memory $50-60 USD per barrel.

[ananda77]

With yields collapsing, that would be beneficial for Z, if they could refinance cheaper? Problem would be, with a continous slow debt default, would be good to lock in yields at a point where they have bottomed out...like maybe at negative 25%?

Maybe someone can answer this question re: the profit downgrade of 60m. Could the real reason for the downgrade be that Z has to pay now relatively more for its existing debt?

[Beagle]

With yields collapsing, that would be beneficial for Z, if they could refinance cheaper? Problem would be, with a continous slow debt default, would be good to lock in yields at a point where they have bottomed out...like maybe at negative 25%?

Maybe someone can answer this question re: the profit downgrade of 60m. Could the real reason for the downgrade be that Z has to pay now relatively more for its existing debt?

No - clearly stated, retail margin pressure = ~ $50m downgrade effect and refinery margin pressure ~ $10m impact.
Z have come out swinging in terms of their position regarding the draft fuel report. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...992/307703.pdf
A very brief skim read, (sorry don't have any more time today than that) would tend to indicate Z have conceded some change in key area's is needed including wholesale fuel arrangements.

As stated last week, I suspect there is more to come from retail margin pressure and Govt regulatory pressure than what has already been provided for in the $60m downgrade. Further, the commercial effect of any ground that ZEL may have conceded in their submission is yet to make itself apparent in lower profits going forward.

More here http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2...uel-reporthtml

[winner69]

That statement re CC Report is almost an invitation to the other players to ‘get together’ and make pricing simpler .....hmm .....code for?