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Thread: Z Energy IPO

  1. #16
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    Confusion reigns ...

    CJ. " Having said that, they have turned a $700m investment into an estimated $1.5B so will effectively hold their 40-50% at zero cost. "

    CJ " Did Shell really sell that cheap as I dont see the changes that have been made justify a doubling in value. "

    percy " You may have hit a "bullseye" with that comment "

    peat " they have completely rebranded. and increased market share. They've definitely added value. "

    winner69 " The CEO did tell him that share is back to where it was when they took over from shell ".

  2. #17
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    Essentially a private equity sell down ....and after they paid themselves a decent divie as well

    How often have these sort of IPOs ended up in tears?

    At least they don't seem to be using the 'iconic' story to lure the moms and dads into parting with their money
    Last edited by winner69; 25-07-2013 at 09:01 PM.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    they would need to do coffees etc like bp to get anywhere near that
    You saying z coffee crap ....or being nice not so good

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    winner69 " The CEO did tell him that share is back to where it was when they took over from shell ".
    yes this is correct they have slipped back from 32.5 in FY 11 and 12 to 30.4 in FY13
    as per page 118
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    yes this is correct they have slipped back from 32.5 in FY 11 and 12 to 30.4 in FY13
    as per page 118
    Here's what was said. See bennetts on to the ipo bit ...share ain't anything if it costs shareholders. A large, chunk of z sales are 'commercial' but some of that info is commercial sensitive stuff.

    Excerpt from shoeshine

    Market share of all products has been declining since about mid 2011 and at about 28% is back where it was when the company rebranded.

    However, Mr Bennetts is not concerned about that because the company concentrates on being within a certain band and as long as it has economies of scale it makes money.

    “We believe that we are comfortably in that band right now. If we wanted to increase market share we could do that. But we think it would have an economic consequence that would destroy shareholder value.”
    Last edited by winner69; 26-07-2013 at 07:54 AM.

  6. #21
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    Sort of says no growth aspirations from fuel except what the market delivers

    So it's all about more coffee and muffins and chocolate bars

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    How have they managed to lose that much market share when they are virtually the only player building new service stations while others close them down?? There is more here than we are being told.

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    Yes good points. Is their present management team capable of selling more coffees, chocolate bars and muffins? Based on performance since the acquisition, I would say no...

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Sort of says no growth aspirations from fuel except what the market delivers

    So it's all about more coffee and muffins and chocolate bars
    Exactly.With smaller cars using less petrol,there is no growth in the fuel market.
    Just another retailer fighting in a tough market.
    I must admit to finding it rather a waste of time when I go to the counter to pay for my petrol, to be asked if I want a coffee or overpriced chocolate bars.
    No.!
    Last edited by percy; 26-07-2013 at 08:32 AM.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaa View Post
    How have they managed to lose that much market share when they are virtually the only player building new service stations while others close them down?? There is more here than we are being told.
    BP's 6c discount through the AA card wouldn't have helped Z compete at the retail end, despite their refurbished stations/service. Interesting though that BP appear to have come into line by reducing their discount recently to 4c.

    Z is certainly not a growth stock, whichever way anyone tries to spin it. But at a prospective gross yield of 8%+ it warrants consideration for the income side of portfolios. Should be plenty of takers in today's environment.
    Last edited by macduffy; 26-07-2013 at 08:52 AM.

  11. #26
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    Interestingly, the CEO Mr Bennett, has written to all bondholders in Z Energy. He thanks them for having faith and investing in the business before it had established its credentials. However he stops short of offering bondholders a firm allocation of shares. He does say bondholders can apply to a "NZX firm" for an allocation then lists some selected brokers.
    It is disappointing that the company has not set aside some shares as a pool for its existing bondholders. Mr Bennett must be confident he can unload all the shares without the bondholders help.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Z is certainly not a growth stock, whichever way anyone tries to spin it. But at a prospective gross yield of 8%+ it warrants consideration for the income side of portfolios. Should be plenty of takers in today's environment.
    Agree. Will be reading the prospectus over the weekend.
    Free delivery worldwide with Book Depository http://www.bookdepository.co.uk

  13. #28
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    Fuel sales declining across industry so shop sales only growth part of business but even that under pressure.
    I think BP would be the clear leader in shop sales because of their cafe an coffee offering , mobil tried it and have backed away except for the coffee which is comparable to bp offering , shell and caltex dont have the same offerings as far as coffee an cafe type offerings.
    So maybe shell have room to grow coffee sales but they would need to invest in better coffee machines over say 100 high margin stores at 20k a coffee machine thats a 2mil investment so not cheap.
    And with the fast food chains offering cheap under $5 deals how many people buy pies now? super markets opening in every subburb competition is fierce for the retail dollar
    I go with previous posters it a income story only and if the market stays as a cosy 4 some income should be steady ( as ceo say going for market share would never work in this market as all players have deep pockets)
    bull

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Exactly.With smaller cars using less petrol,there is no growth in the fuel market.
    Just another retailer fighting in a tough market.
    I must admit to finding it rather a waste of time when I go to the counter to pay for my petrol, to be asked if I want a coffee or overpriced chocolate bars.
    No.!
    And the big volume commercial markets look pretty cut throat and low margin.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post

    Z is certainly not a growth stock, whichever way anyone tries to spin it. But at a prospective gross yield of 8%+ it warrants consideration for the income side of portfolios. Should be plenty of takers in today's environment.
    Yes. I think you are right on the money.

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