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Thread: ZEL - Z Energy.

  1. #681
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    In a bearish time TA nearly always sucks but it's hard to pan for gold in a strong current, a drought is a better time to find those nuggets.
    Bollinger bonds telling us anything?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #682
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Bollinger bonds telling us anything?
    That's it's going below $5.20, looks like the drought is going to get worse.

  3. #683
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    That's it's going below $5.20, looks like the drought is going to get worse.

    maybe no nuggets .....just other not so good stuff like turds


    shareprice was in a downtrend before the shock earnings downgrade and the downtrend looks like it is going to continue .....nothing has changed to reverse the downtrend eh

    long way down from nearly 8 bucks
    Last edited by winner69; 04-01-2019 at 03:27 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #684
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    I can't argue the fact that TA looks bad, no debate about that. The question is do we look at what started the bad downtrend, the shocking first half result caused by a number of one off factors and look through that to see the sustainable dividend yield going forward. Brokers forecasting an average of 51 cps fully imputed dividends for FY20 rising to 56 cps for FY21 (56 / 0.72) = 77.78 cps gross giving a gross yield of 14.5%. $5.19 gives a gross forecast yield of 15%.
    Remember this is a consumer staple. When oil went to $147 a barrel in the latter part of last decade fuel volumes declined by a "whopping" 2 %. That gives you the picture of how incredibly inelastic demand is.
    That said I do believe that like me a lot of people are now buying more fuel efficient cars but on the other side of the equation we still have considerable net migrants coming here each year most of whom buy cars so this probably balances itself out. Holding for yield and the natural hedge of the dividends more than supplying the Beagle clan's fuel requirements...kind of like free fuel.
    Last edited by Beagle; 04-01-2019 at 03:48 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #685
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    a bullish gartley has formed but needs confirmation


    Attachment 10231

    I guess to make my post clearer I should attempt to define what confirmation might be.
    It could be any bullish candle formation on this daily time frame, so maybe a spinning top , or a hammer and then a big greeny. Conservatively to rise and then fall back and find support at 5.50 would indicate a stronger longer bullish possibility. Of course all bets are off below 5.15 for this particular pattern.
    Last edited by peat; 04-01-2019 at 04:15 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #686
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Remember this is a consumer staple. When oil went to $147 a barrel in the latter part of last decade fuel volumes declined by a "whopping" 2 %. That gives you the picture of how incredibly inelastic demand is.
    That said I do believe that like me a lot of people are now buying more fuel efficient cars but on the other side of the equation we still have considerable net migrants coming here each year most of whom buy cars so this probably balances itself out. Holding for yield and the natural hedge of the dividends more than supplying the Beagle clan's fuel requirements...kind of like free fuel.
    I guess most of these people who will be buying more fuel efficient cars,especially the migrants, will be buying them from NZ biggest used vehicle seller?..lol.

    Sorry I do not buy Z as I get 15cents a litre off from Challenge and NPD,and the Pak'nSave Sticky Club 30cents off was a Christmas bonus I really enjoyed.[even filled up the motor mower petrol can].
    Last edited by percy; 04-01-2019 at 06:21 PM.

  7. #687
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    a bullish gartley has formed but needs confirmation


    Attachment 10231

    I guess to make my post clearer I should attempt to define what confirmation might be.
    It could be any bullish candle formation on this daily time frame, so maybe a spinning top , or a hammer and then a big greeny. Conservatively to rise and then fall back and find support at 5.50 would indicate a stronger longer bullish possibility. Of course all bets are off below 5.15 for this particular pattern.
    Could be. Then again im seeing a zingy steerish herd gathering within 2 moons on a spring tide. Bullishly a thrusting horn could open up a teepee smoke hole with possible scalping or at least a number one. Naturally its black or white or red and odds are even or even off depending on exactly how much it costs to fill your next tank of fuel be it 91.95.98 or a tight ar@se piston 105 friction short shot.

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    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    As long as an abandoned baby pattern doesnt form

    Always feel sad and shed a tear when I see those
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #689
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Could be. Then again im seeing a zingy steerish herd gathering within 2 moons on a spring tide. Bullishly a thrusting horn could open up a teepee smoke hole with possible scalping or at least a number one. Naturally its black or white or red and odds are even or even off depending on exactly how much it costs to fill your next tank of fuel be it 91.95.98 or a tight ar@se piston 105 friction short shot.

    There is no hocus pocus , the gartley is nothing more than a tool to identify a nascent change of momentum. We've had a large fall in ZEL its possible that 5.17 is the low. With the price moving back up to 6.00 was that the first sign of a permanent turn? Since that $6 point we have seen two corrective patterns played out. neither of which has so far taken out the low.

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    As long as an abandoned baby pattern doesnt form

    Always feel sad and shed a tear when I see those
    There is no chance of an abandoned baby right now as we have a Labour govt and Jacinda is always thinking of the children.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #690
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    There is no hocus pocus , the gartley is nothing more than a tool to identify a nascent change of momentum. We've had a large fall in ZEL its possible that 5.17 is the low. With the price moving back up to 6.00 was that the first sign of a permanent turn? Since that $6 point we have seen two corrective patterns played out. neither of which has so far taken out the low.



    There is no chance of an abandoned baby right now as we have a Labour govt and Jacinda is always thinking of the children.
    A case of , the more you know the less you know ehh

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