http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f...scounting.html
My bad, new discount fuel scheme change was in fact 1 August 2019 not 1 July. So one full month into the new discount scheme and we get a $50m downgrade due to unprecedented discounting but this in the companies view is accounted for with this downgrade for the full year. Words to the effect that half the provisioning is historical and half projected in the NZX release but seeing as we've only had one full month of the new discount scheme this financial year and there's 7 more to go its an "interesting call" to only provision another $25m included with this $50m downgrade. (Effectively my read is they're provisioning $25m historical reduction in margin for the first 5 months trading, notwithstanding only one month is with the new scheme discounting and saying the next seven months, all of which will be with the new loyalty / discounting scheme, will result in the same quantum of profit reduction as for the first five months). They're also making no provision for any possible further pressure on margins due to regulatory inetrvention (Hope that makes sense to you guys...but provisioning looks a bit inadequate to me. I think the potential for another downgrade is quite clear).
My inclination is to steer well clear of this one for a fair while and assess the lie of the land in due course.
Last edited by Beagle; 12-09-2019 at 06:22 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f...scounting.html
My bad, new discount fuel scheme change was in fact 1 August 2019 not 1 July. So one full month into the new discount scheme and we get a $50m downgrade due to unprecedented discounting but this in the companies view is accounted for with this downgrade for the full year. Words to the effect that half the provisioning is historical and half projected in the NZX release but seeing as we've only had one full month of the new discount scheme this financial year and there's 7 more to go its an "interesting call" to only provision another $25m included with this $50m downgrade. (Effectively my read is they're provisioning $25m historical reduction in margin for the first 5 months trading, notwithstanding only one month is with the new scheme discounting and saying the next seven months, all of which will be with the new loyalty / discounting scheme, will result in the same quantum of profit reduction as for the first five months. They're also making no provision for any possible further pressure on margins due to regulatory inetrvention (Hope that makes sense to you guys...but it looks a bit inadequate to me. I think the potential for another downgrade is quite clear).
Whether intentional or not Z narrative and accounts are often rather confusing and can be interpreted different ways.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
Whether intentional or not Z narrative and accounts are often rather confusing and can be interpreted different ways.
I don't have any difficulty with their replacement cost reporting which is the norm for the industry and its certainly not in the almost deliberate obfuscation category of one of the companies in the retirement sector. That said I am sure Jascinda and her team will take their own view on profitability and return on invested capital and quite frankly who needs the political pressure when margins are so fine already ! Investing here feels like its analogous to swimming against an outgoing tide.
I don't think they'll even make $400m EBITDAF this year. Discounting stronger for longer is my read on it. Time to buy a V8 powered car again lol
Last edited by Beagle; 12-09-2019 at 06:31 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I don't have any difficulty with their replacement cost reporting which is the norm for the industry and its certainly not in the almost deliberate obfuscation category of one of the companies in the retirement sector. That said I am sure Jascinda and her team will take their own view on profitability and return on invested capital and quite frankly who needs the political pressure when margins are so fine already ! Investing here feels like its analogous to swimming against an outgoing tide.
I don't think they'll even make $400m EBITDAF this year. Discounting stronger for longer is my read on it. Time to buy a V8 powered car again lol
Im OK with their replacement cost reporting
Just that often they explain something that looks good but tend to gloss over bits that arent that good....or so it in a way that doesnt sound so bad.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
Must have glossed over some, at least early indicative signs, that all was not well at their very recent (1 August 2019) investor day briefing.
From memory they were confident that the roll out of the Z pumped loyalty scheme to Caltex stations, (replacing Caltex's previous scheme) wouldn't cause any hiccups.
Funny thing is people don't like changes and probably prefer to stick with whatever loyalty scheme they currently have so volumes are down at Caltex. Basic human psychology that people don't like change but that seems to be something Z management were completely unaware of as recently as 1 August.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by Beagle
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