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21-10-2019, 02:33 PM
#1211
Originally Posted by Antipodean
It is a maximum potential, rather than expected average, discount for the scheme. There is also the possibility of store purchases in those 48 visits every two months.
That being said, thinking of it as being up to 22cpl discount means it (total discounting) will be something to closely watch even for a believer like me.
Store sales up 10% year on year before this stacking business came into play so yes, I would definitely concede more frequent visiting to take maximum advantage of stacking could well have benefits to the company in that way. Watching this one very closely as the yield is tempting. Plenty of margin in fuel at the moment as its still hasn't returned to pre Saudi infrastructure attack level's despite Brent being below the point before the attack and the $Kiwi now being above the level.
Govt have a point. Prices rise like a rocket on the slightest hint of trouble and fall at the pace of a snail. Replacement cost fuel pricing when oil goes up and historical cost pricing when it comes down. Seems extremely "contrived" for the fuel companies benifet…
With the recent poll result shock, Labour will be exceptionally keen to make political capital out of the fuel study report leading into an election year. Their response could be quite interesting.
P.S. Devon selling down http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...962/310188.pdf
Last edited by Beagle; 21-10-2019 at 04:30 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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21-10-2019, 04:51 PM
#1212
Originally Posted by macduffy
Put another way, would Z be justified in thinking that stacking hasn't adversely affected BP's profits over the years?
You would think a listed company like Z would have an analytics team that would've modelled their discount programmes and their overall impact on profitability and expected growth. Not that hard these days with all smart tools that we've and data to work with.
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21-10-2019, 05:02 PM
#1213
Member
Devon selling from 5.01% to 4.95% of the company, or a net 250,000 shares is fairly minor in the scheme of things.
Agreed that price rises faster than it falls - though I wouldn't be surprised if this was true across many industries. Just easier to identify with fuel data access and more of a hot topic at present.
I think Labour will need to choose their battles very carefully next year. The final report is likely to be less govt friendly - even the AA is advising the tax portions are underestimated.
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22-10-2019, 09:08 AM
#1214
Originally Posted by sb9
You would think a listed company like Z would have an analytics team that would've modelled their discount programmes and their overall impact on profitability and expected growth. Not that hard these days with all smart tools that we've and data to work with.
Maybe they should use this cool company, not sure how Snoopy and I missed this recent listing in the US https://www.datadoghq.com/
Originally Posted by Antipodean
Devon selling from 5.01% to 4.95% of the company, or a net 250,000 shares is fairly minor in the scheme of things.
Agreed that price rises faster than it falls - though I wouldn't be surprised if this was true across many industries. Just easier to identify with fuel data access and more of a hot topic at present.
I think Labour will need to choose their battles very carefully next year. The final report is likely to be less govt friendly - even the AA is advising the tax portions are underestimated.
Just that they can keep selling with complete anonymity...
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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22-10-2019, 09:14 AM
#1215
Z know what they doing around these schemes - robust modelling been done - trust me
When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself
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22-10-2019, 09:54 AM
#1216
Well my friend Peter keeps buying ice-creams there so maybe he's not the only one
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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22-10-2019, 06:39 PM
#1217
Closed at $5.42, another multi week low. One could be forgiven for thinking the market is expecting another downgrade with the interim announcement on 31 October.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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23-10-2019, 10:59 AM
#1218
Originally Posted by Beagle
Closed at $5.42, another multi week low. One could be forgiven for thinking the market is expecting another downgrade with the interim announcement on 31 October.
Although my initial buy was way too high, in the meantime, am starting to like the idea of accumulating a long term investment in ZEnergy. Next step, in case their result disappoints again, accumulate a second lot closer to 5 or lower. Committing to the final buy around 455.
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23-10-2019, 11:05 AM
#1219
I think its safer to wait until we hear what they have to say on 31 October. I'm interested in the mid $4 range too but am keeping my powder dry in the meantime.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
-
23-10-2019, 11:09 AM
#1220
Originally Posted by ananda77
Although my initial buy was way too high, in the meantime, am starting to like the idea of accumulating a long term investment in ZEnergy. Next step, in case their result disappoints again, accumulate a second lot closer to 5 or lower. Committing to the final buy around 455.
Just try not to overcommit. At the end of the day is this just another retailer in a sunset industry without realistic growth expectations. Nothing clever or cutting edge about what they are doing ... and with the increase of the discounters they will need to compete more and more on price for a product which is absolutely identical to the fuel most other suppliers are delivering. Sure - all these confusing discount schemes might slow down the margin melt for another couple of years, but while you can confuse most consumers for some time, you can't confuse all consumers for ever - and neither have ZEL a monopoly on confusing customers with stupid loyalty schemes.
One day their current customers will wake up and realize that the emperor of complicated discount schemes offers no tangible benefits to their customers over the competition.
Last edited by BlackPeter; 23-10-2019 at 11:11 AM.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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