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30-10-2019, 05:17 PM
#1231
Significant move down of 44 cents (nearly 8%), just in the last 2 weeks on quite large volume. Not a good omen for tomorrow's half year result announcement.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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30-10-2019, 06:16 PM
#1232
 Originally Posted by Beagle
Significant move down of 44 cents (nearly 8%), just in the last 2 weeks on quite large volume. Not a good omen for tomorrow's half year result announcement.
Sell the rumour and buy on the facts — or something like that
No worries.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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30-10-2019, 06:23 PM
#1233
Perhaps...except the rumour doesn't finish until the Govt announces their response to the fuel study program sometime in December.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-10-2019, 08:38 AM
#1234
Nothing new in half year announcement
Pretty boring really except this bit — Z obviously don’t think fuel is a ‘consumer staple’ and sheltered from cyclical stuff .....or else they just say this sort of stuff to give the impression they are up to date with latest buzz words etc
“Z’s earnings are correlated to the overall level of economic activity in New Zealand and we see headwinds in the near term around business confidence, growth and the willingness of businesses and consumers to commit to investment or large expenditure. Despite the nature of our business we are not immune to this loss of confidence in economic activity.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...471/310875.pdf
Last edited by winner69; 31-10-2019 at 08:40 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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31-10-2019, 08:54 AM
#1235
Operating Cash Flow negative $31m v pcp of positive $111m
And losing market share by looks of it
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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31-10-2019, 08:58 AM
#1236
Originally Posted by winner69
Operating Cash Flow negative $31m v pcp of positive $111m
And losing market share by looks of it
I guess the fuel discounters (Gull, NPD, MGL, ...) need to eat into somebody's market share. Shows how consumers really value complicated loyalty systems which only waste everybody's time and money.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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31-10-2019, 09:29 AM
#1237
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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31-10-2019, 09:31 AM
#1238
Originally Posted by winner69
Operating Cash Flow negative $31m v pcp of positive $111m
And losing market share by looks of it
Very intense competitive environment isn't going to get any less intense going forward, probably even more intense as unmanned minnow stations with low overheads continue to eat into their market share and intensify retail margins even further. Loss of market share is quite significant.
Headwinds from:-
Possible regulatory response to fuel market study
Increasing competition from low cost operators
The gradual uptake of electric vehicles.
Half year results was less than half the EBITDAF forecast for the year. I remain of the view there is downside risk to their very low FY20 forecast.
Full year dividend forecast of 48-50 cps but they are only paying out 16.5 cps as an interim dividend is an interesting call and not one that would inspire me with confidence if I was a shareholder.
I would not be surprised in the slightest to see this test the $5 mark in the next few months especially if Cindy gets on her soapbox and tries to make political capital out of the fuel study due for final release (from memory), in very early December.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-10-2019, 09:36 AM
#1239
Originally Posted by winner69
FY20 very low ERBITDAF forecast of $390-430m probably materially lower again in FY21 is how I see it. Dividend level under threat this year and could be materially lowered next year. Stock looks like an obvious value and dividend trap and unless they can stem the tide of rapidly losing market share the future looks quite challenging to me.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-10-2019, 10:21 AM
#1240
market pretty positive it seems with the share price up over 2%, I'm a bit confused why, these results look shocking to say the least
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