ZEL - Z Energy.

[ananda77]

Sharetank (max 1,000 liters) will be a very good idea after fuel prices drop right down to reflect the current price of crude. That probably won't happen for 6-8 weeks.
As usual, retail fuel prices go up like a rocket and fall down like a feather.

sounds good, but timing is a bitch

[ananda77]

Interesting that Morningstar issued a new recommendation today for Z and they keep the valuation at 8.30 and a BUY recommendation.???

[stoploss]

sounds good, but timing is a bitch

If you get the timing wrong , just continue to pay as you go . Then when the price goes back up ( if it ever does ) use up your sharetank ...
Bit like a couple of spec stocks that have become long term in my portfolio

[Beagle]

Interesting that Morningstar issued a new recommendation today for Z and they keep the valuation at 8.30 and a BUY recommendation.???

You need to stop listening to them. Very good point stoploss about keeping sharetank liters until the price goes back up, if it ever does. Only risk is ZEL collapsing and while I am not suggesting they will, they certainly have a LOT of debt.

[ananda77]

If you get the timing wrong , just continue to pay as you go . Then when the price goes back up ( if it ever does ) use up your sharetank ...
Bit like a couple of spec stocks that have become long term in my portfolio

Yes you right. So tonight I filled up the sharetank at 198 (95) and have a price cap now in place. In the meantime I will continue to choose the cheapest option, e.g in my situation, collect the 10c discount on 40 dollars of 91 for the run around car, and then use the discount when filling up 50ltr. of 95 for the 95 cars. In that way the 10c discount increases by up to 3 dollars per fill.

[BlackPeter]

According to the analysts is this share currently a bargain: Consensus SP is $5.27 and Buy recommendation is - well - BUY! (9.2/10). But before we get too excited - how good have the analysts been in the past in the art of predicting the future?

In February 2019 the ZEL share price peaked at $6.14. At that stage the combined mental power of 6 share market analysts forecasted that over the 12 months to February 2020 the ZEL shareprice will rise by 14% to $7.01 (consensus).

ZEL actually peaked in February 2020 at $4.65, i.e. the actual share price was 34% below the consensus and SP moved into the opposite direction from the forecast (drop instead of rise) - i.e. analyst forecast is a clear FAIL.

Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in February 2019 a pretty straight "BUY" as well (9.2/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will well outperform the NZX. NZX 50 went up by 21% and ZEL went down by 24%. Analysts got it spectacularly wrong. FAIL.

I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts

19 stock forecasts checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus share price forecasts correct: 4/19; analysts hitrate: 21.1%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 6/19; analysts hitrate: 31.6%

Based on this performance it might be better not to trust the 'experts' with the current Buy recommendation - shall we?

[King1212]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-b...ectid=12318391

I reconk...zel will make a killing as oil price down more than 50persen. ....all those years..they kept mourning high oil price low margin....now the tide has change....

[Gonzo]

What is the gist in this which is behind paywall https://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-b...ectid=12318391

[dreamcatcher]

Stuart Williams, head of equities at Nikko Asset Management. Williams said Z Energy's sell-off was “perplexing”, although he noted fuel consumption does fall during a recession.
“If you look across however deep this valley that we are in is, then that is a Great Company with an enduring proposition that presents GOOD VALUE.” he said.

Disc Hold

[Beagle]

What is the gist in this which is behind paywall https://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-b...ectid=12318391

There's a lot of good stuff in there. Well worth the trial price of $2.50 per week, especially with the way the world is at this point !
ZEL faces very challenging times. Just one of those challenges is 23% of volume is Jet fuel. With no international airlines flying here shortly and AIR providing only skeleton international services for freight and 70% demand reduction domestically already, and much deeper cuts to come after todays announcement by the PM...jet fuel demand is set to fall off the face of a cliff. How much fuel will people use if we end up going into lockdown ?