ZEL - Z Energy.

[Paradox]

I'm with Beagle and Black Peter on Z. To me Z is a classic dividend yield trap where holders cling to their holding in the face of a declining SP justifying it by the possibility of a dividend.

If holders lift their eyes, they will see lots of headwinds for Z which the company is not facing up to. Frankly your investment in what was once seen as a 'safe and secure' investment is no longer either.

(Disc - never held Z. )

Market viewed today’s operational update very positively. 5% gain. There’s still a lot of upside next year.

[Cyclical]

As BP has noted above the chart looks absolutely terrible.

When BP says there are issues in the petroleum sector, we really need to sit up and listen :-)

[Paradox]

When BP says there are issues in the petroleum sector, we really need to sit up and listen :-)

Huge volume going through the last two days and a further gain today. Instos buying ...

[sb9]

Huge volume going through the last two days and a further gain today. Instos buying ...

Absolutely, one or two big boys building up a decent stake here...

[tango]

This article on switching more vehicles to electricity is interesting. I think a lot of people believe you can just wave a magic wand and change the fleet vehicle but this article goes into it in some depth and shows that it will take decades. Of course, that could all change of a green government came in but as it stands… A 10% uptake by the end of 2030. Those are the same figures that Z energy is working on

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/will-auck...rs-go-electric

[BlackPeter]

This article on switching more vehicles to electricity is interesting. I think a lot of people believe you can just wave a magic wand and change the fleet vehicle but this article goes into it in some depth and shows that it will take decades. Of course, that could all change of a green government came in but as it stands… A 10% uptake by the end of 2030. Those are the same figures that Z energy is working on

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/will-auck...rs-go-electric

It took New York in the first decade of the last century about 6 years to change traffic from 90% horse carts to 90% vehicles with combustion engine. Sure - for the whole of the US this process took 23 years (as per Dr. Google).

So yes, we are not the US, and our current old bangers are not horse carts ... but I think the main issue is how much cheaper (and better) the alternative will be. Currently it is something like 25 to 80 cents per km to drive a car. If we assume that the cost for driving electric cars will stay in that same order of magnitude, then the models are probably right.

However - the cost for batteries (the most expensive part of an electric car) are dropping by more than 10% per year (*). Given that apart from the battery costs electric cars are so much cheaper to both manufacture and maintain (ways less parts, less maintenance and cheaper fuel cost than cars with combustion engine) it won't be long that the whole of life costs of an electric vehicle are considerable cheaper than for a conventional car. If it would be just say 12 to 40 cents a km to drive an electric vehicle (likely in 10 years based on current development of battery prices), how long do you need to make the change?

This is the time when NZ will get rid of its fleet of old bangers, because many won't be able anymore to afford driving a car with combustion engine.

(*) from https://www.greencarreports.com/news...0-kwh-in-2023:

From 2010 to 2019, lithium-ion battery prices (when looking at the battery pack as a whole) have fallen from $1,100 per kilowatt-hour to $156/kwh—an 87% cut. From 2018 to 2019 alone, that represents a cut of 13%.

Actually - I think the current increase of old vehicles in our fleet is a good indication that consumers expect this change to happen soon. Nobody wants to buy anymore a new car with combustion engine, because in 10 years they won't have any material resale value anymore.

[tango]

It took New York in the first decade of the last century about 6 years to change traffic from 90% horse carts to 90% vehicles with combustion engine. Sure - for the whole of the US this process took 23 years (as per Dr. Google).

So yes, we are not the US, and our current old bangers are not horse carts ... but I think the main issue is how much cheaper (and better) the alternative will be. Currently it is something like 25 to 80 cents per km to drive a car. If we assume that the cost for driving electric cars will stay in that same order of magnitude, then the models are probably right.

However - the cost for batteries (the most expensive part of an electric car) are dropping by more than 10% per year (*). Given that apart from the battery costs electric cars are so much cheaper to both manufacture and maintain (ways less parts, less maintenance and cheaper fuel cost than cars with combustion engine) it won't be long that the whole of life costs of an electric vehicle are considerable cheaper than for a conventional car. If it would be just say 12 to 40 cents a km to drive an electric vehicle (likely in 10 years based on current development of battery prices), how long do you need to make the change?

This is the time when NZ will get rid of its fleet of old bangers, because many won't be able anymore to afford driving a car with combustion engine.

(*) from https://www.greencarreports.com/news...0-kwh-in-2023:



Actually - I think the current increase of old vehicles in our fleet is a good indication that consumers expect this change to happen soon. Nobody wants to buy anymore a new car with combustion engine, because in 10 years they won't have any material resale value anymore.

I not sure you can compare shifting from horse and cart to vehicles

There's a turning point when the masses follow the early adopters and we are a long way away from it here. When batteries last for longer EVs will be more popular for sure.

Style is part of it. The Tesla is more stylish than the little economical boxes that first come out and the cars do more miles now before needing recharging. When EVs are both economical and stylish you will see more uptake.

I haven't replaced my car but that has nothing to do with EV. I have been putting my spare $$$ into the share market and my vehicle is relatively low km so there's no need to replace it. I have my eye on a gas guzzler to replace it when I do

[Cyclical]

I not sure you can compare shifting from horse and cart to vehicles

There's a turning point when the masses follow the early adopters and we are a long way away from it here. When batteries last for longer EVs will be more popular for sure.

Style is part of it. The Tesla is more stylish than the little economical boxes that first come out and the cars do more miles now before needing recharging. When EVs are both economical and stylish you will see more uptake.

I haven't replaced my car but that has nothing to do with EV. I have been putting my spare $$$ into the share market and my vehicle is relatively low km so there's no need to replace it. I have my eye on a gas guzzler to replace it when I do

Honda's little EV is a cracker and the sort of vehicle to change the market, IF the can get the price point right.

Otherwise I reckon PHEVs have got a lot of potential for the transition period.

[tango]

Honda's little EV is a cracker and the sort of vehicle to change the market, IF the can get the price point right.

Otherwise I reckon PHEVs have got a lot of potential for the transition period.

Yep. PHEV and EV will both increase in uptake but kiwis don’t seem to be rushing to upgrade at this stage...

ZEL need to have better long range plans...

[flyer]

Im quite surprised how many Tesla's you see now when driving around, seems to be more and more, in Auckland area anyway.