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11-03-2021, 03:00 PM
#2011
Share price hanging in there
Going below 270 (which has held several times over the last year) would be ominous
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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11-03-2021, 03:03 PM
#2012
At least its making a profit. When the vaccinations start to work, and the Australian travel bubble is opened up, we will see some big gains.
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11-03-2021, 06:30 PM
#2013
Gull NFD and Waitomo building new stations all around the Manawatu....reducing larger margins wherever they are found.
Sanson for instance now has a new automated Gull right on corner of SH1
An ECL guy I was talkin to at a Z in Palmerston said NPD building a new station there and in Levin.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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11-03-2021, 09:34 PM
#2014
Originally Posted by Rawz
ZEL is SKY 2.0. Currently worth $1.4b.
Going to be worth $300m (Sky capitalization) one day as the industry fades away into the sunset.
Their industry in the current form is certainly a sunset industry, even though not so long ago it was called a "consumer staple" on this thread (I had it in my divie portfolio), so they need to change direction. Jet fuel will come back but other parts of their business are in a downward trend. They certainly need to decide where they want to go in the future and come up with a clear plan to become an interesting investment opportunity again.
Do they need something radical like Kodak going from film development to pharmaceuticals or Nokia from gumboots to mobile phones !!
Last edited by iceman; 12-03-2021 at 07:43 AM.
Reason: Spelling
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12-03-2021, 08:48 AM
#2015
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12-03-2021, 09:21 AM
#2016
Originally Posted by iceman
Their industry in the current form is certainly a sunset industry, even though not so long ago it was called a "consumer staple" on this thread (I had it in my divie portfolio), so they need to change direction. Jet fuel will come back but other parts of their business are in a downward trend. They certainly need to decide where they want to go in the future and come up with a clear plan to become an interesting investment opportunity again.
Do they need something radical like Kodak going from film development to pharmaceuticals or Nokia from gumboots to mobile phones !!
Unfortunately ICE cars will be with us for a long time. If a vehicle bought today has a 20 year lifespan and 99% of them are ICE there is another 20 years of fuel demand. Tourism restarting, economic growth and the refinery shutting down should help the ZEL bottom line. It will be interesting to see how sustainable the newcomers will be - Z always has the option of adding "no service" stations if that model is fiscally viable.
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12-03-2021, 09:35 AM
#2017
Originally Posted by iceman
Their industry in the current form is certainly a sunset industry, even though not so long ago it was called a "consumer staple" on this thread (I had it in my divie portfolio), so they need to change direction. Jet fuel will come back but other parts of their business are in a downward trend. They certainly need to decide where they want to go in the future and come up with a clear plan to become an interesting investment opportunity again.
Do they need something radical like Kodak going from film development to pharmaceuticals or Nokia from gumboots to mobile phones !!
consumer staple lol
one step ahead of the herd
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12-03-2021, 09:42 AM
#2018
Investing in ZEL now, would be like investing in a company that made traction engines in 1935.
Eventually, they will run out of steam.
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12-03-2021, 10:01 AM
#2019
Originally Posted by bull....
consumer staple lol
kinda is tho!!
I use enough of the stuff and there are a lot of ICE's still out there all whizzing around like bats outta hell. Apart from Jet its only marginally (pun) about demand and more about margins. Z have been and continue to obtain larger margins (based on prices) where ever they can as people dont travel to fill up so the prices are maxxed hard by location and location of competition. Essentially charging what they could but so much of this will get eaten and continue to get eaten - and the no frills approach started by Gull makes it even worse
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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12-03-2021, 11:23 AM
#2020
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c...merstaples.asp I have to buy fuel today or tomorrow whether I make money in the market today or continue to get a hiding, just like Mrs B has to go shopping for food and we have to pay our electricity, telephone, internet and rates bills whether we want to or not. Currently less than 1% of the national fleet is an EV and the speed of uptake is best described as extremely slow in my opinion.
The issue for ZEL is not whether what they sell is a consumer staple, there is no question it is, its about their very poor marketing, lack of investment in their sites, price gouging and the ever increasing number of unmanned sites that are being built by their competitors around the country. Jet will be very slow to come back in my opinion and Marsden Point is an unmitigated train wreck.
Fuel will be sold for decades to come, its about whether ZEL can adapt their business model for the gradually changing conditions. Under Bennett's "leadership" my bet is they will always be behind the eight ball and his lack of leadership or vision makes this ostensibly uninvestable in my opinion.
Last edited by Beagle; 12-03-2021 at 11:27 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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