ZEL - Z Energy.

[couta1]

Anyone got any thoughts on where Zel share price is heading? Other than dipping below the MA50 I can't see anything conclusive either way, looks like it may be near its bottom for now but maybe not.I'm looking to reenter after selling out last year ( Must be a few of us that wished we hadn't) as a divvy play, thanks in advance.

[Baa_Baa]

No, who would know where it's heading, except down at the moment. It's on my yield watchlist. After a stellar run, even through the early stages of the Oil price rout, it's selling off right now. Perhaps better to just keep an eye on it and wait until a confirmed uptrend sets in again. Just because it's under the 50MA isn't any indication of whether it's near a low (bottom). most confirming indicators suggest there's plenty more downside to come. Just chill and watch and wait, don't buy into down trends, imho.

BAA

Anyone got any thoughts on where Zel share price is heading? Other than dipping below the MA50 I can't see anything conclusive either way, looks like it may be near its bottom for now but maybe not.I'm looking to reenter after selling out last year ( Must be a few of us that wished we hadn't) as a divvy play, thanks in advance.

[Grimy]

What's with the 12cent price rise today (petrol-not share price)?

[couta1]

No, who would know where it's heading, except down at the moment. It's on my yield watchlist. After a stellar run, even through the early stages of the Oil price rout, it's selling off right now. Perhaps better to just keep an eye on it and wait until a confirmed uptrend sets in again. Just because it's under the 50MA isn't any indication of whether it's near a low (bottom). most confirming indicators suggest there's plenty more downside to come. Just chill and watch and wait, don't buy into down trends, imho.

BAA

Cheers Baa Baa, I did notice someone was keen to offload at $4.50 as I watched the close today so good chance it may go lower.

[couta1]

What's with the 12cent price rise today (petrol-not share price)?

According to the AA website the last petroleum rise was on Feb 16th at 4c/liter

[Baa_Baa]

No worries mate, a 50MA breakdown is more usually a sell signal. There's no need to bail out the $4.5 seller, leave it to someone else.
Put these indicators on your chart; Williams %R - fast; RSI - short term; MACD - a bit slower; DMI - slightly slower again; Money Flow and Volume - show you where the $ are going and how much. These simple indicators along with the 50EMA and 200EMA will give you insights when to enter and exit. You can move early, middle or later, depending on how much confirmation you prefer. If they all confirm, buy, or sell. Don't agonise over being the first to buy a bottom, or the first to sell a top- that's gambling. Most moves run for long enough for the indicators to inform a timed entry or exit. If they don't run (a fake out), stay in, or out, depending on your position. It's just about timing, and you can't time something that you can't see or by guessing.

BAA

Cheers Baa Baa, I did notice someone was keen to offload at $4.50 as I watched the close today so good chance it may go lower.

[Baa_Baa]

Couta, this is what I mean:

Money Flow - out, confirming people are exiting.
Williams %R - note it signalled early the sell off the top.
RSI - confirmed the sell down a few days later
MACD - crossed down as the RSI went through 0.
DMI - crossed down at the 50MA.

Everything says down. Wait these these start reversing, in the same order.

Attachment 7086

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11404872

I think there's a general consensus out there that the fuel companies were incredibly slow to reduce retail prices but that the extent and speed of recent increases is in very stark contrast and looks unjustified.

Looks like the Govt wern't impressed either. Thinly veiled waiving of the regulation stick ?...implications for Z's margin's going forward ?

[Wolf]

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/74132...t-margins-earl

Z Energy said MBIE data on fuel profit margins was no longer accurately measuring sales data or all of the costs that determine profit margins.CEO Mike Bennetts said through a statement that fuel companies were competing harder with a range of new ways to win customers, including through service, price discounting, loyalty offers and a wide range of discounts beyond the price board. These affected margins, but were not reflected in MBIE data.
“MBIE has historically monitored and reported fuel importer margins, but this reporting has not kept up with rapidly changing competitive dynamics and the methodology is now flawed," Bennetts said.
"As a result, the gap between this reported margin and Z’s actual margins has been growing and the quality of the data has become a problem that needs to be addressed," he said

[Baa_Baa]

is the govt levy on fuel a % of retail or fixed per litre?