ZEL - Z Energy.

[theace]

I'm waiting for the bidding war to start and should be at least a price with 4 in front.

What's the window for anyone else to come out and bid? ..before it's locked in for Ampol.

[Beagle]

Will they change the name from Z to Ampol? Whatever the name, I am sure Z/Ampol will do all you said and convert to EV and cafe etc over time, the same as all other Caltex, BP etc outlets will do over time. Then Z/Ampol sp will probably head back to $10, but only after Kiwis sell to Aussi.

Possibly leave the branding as is, its what Kiwi's have come to know and many would be stupid enough to continue to buy the line that Z is for New Zealand. I read recently that they have changed advertising agencies...(existing advertising was weak in my opinion). Like most things Mike Bennetts and his "leadership" team do its too little and too late.

Interesting to read Ampol's (ALD) presentation re Z's acquisition.

- Material transition and synergies1 opportunities – NZ$60-80m pa largely via, fuel procurement and overhead costreductions
- Compelling financial returns – targeting double digit EPS accretion and 20%+ free cash flow accretion in 2023
- Creates a stronger platform for development of lower emissions energy solutions for customers across Australia andNew Zealand
***
I'm waiting for the bidding war to start and should be at least a price with 4 in front.

Some will be genuine synergies but most will be removing egregiously high management salaries that have continued to be paid irrespective of the extremely poor leadership and management. I'm not selling yet either...at the very least the international arbitrage funds will start to get to work here and the price should go a little higher over time. Who knows, another bid might be possible ?

[Balance]

Interesting to read Ampol's (ALD) presentation re Z's acquisition.

***
Z Energy acquisition highlights:
Unique opportunity for Ampol to acquire the market leader in New Zealand and deliver strong financial returns

- Z Energy is the market leader in New Zealand with 40% share of New Zealand fuel sales and a similar businessmodel to Ampol
- Creates a Trans-Tasman fuel champion with a combined network of ~2,400 sites and supplying ~23.5 BL pa of fuelto customers in the Asia Pacific region, leveraging Ampol’s unique international supply chain
- Material transition and synergies1 opportunities – NZ$60-80m pa largely via, fuel procurement and overhead costreductions
- Compelling financial returns – targeting double digit EPS accretion and 20%+ free cash flow accretion in 2023
- Creates a stronger platform for development of lower emissions energy solutions for customers across Australia andNew Zealand
***

I'm waiting for the bidding war to start and should be at least a price with 4 in front.

Bought some more at $3.60 - downside covered by the $3.83 Ampol bid with another 10% to 15% potential upside from another bidder. Best risk reward play on the market rather than money in the bank.

Don't really want to wake up tomorrow morning and read in the AFR that another bidder has offered $4.15 and Amnpol has decided to counter.

[peat]

interesting to see you guys still hangin in.
I've already had two bites at this cherry and unlike you guys and Metlife wont be having a third. My portfolio has a reasonable chunk of Aussie resource so will just leave it there for now.

[Beagle]

Z have spouted on about the annual divvy being 19-23 cents, (mid point 21 cents in annual dividends) which suggests a fair interim dividend should be 10.5 cents. In that context to only allow shareholders to have half the dividend they're entitled too Mike, his team and the board have again failed shareholders. (I say "again" because over the years they've consistently failed shareholders with their lack of vision and leadership).

Really the minimum satisfactory deal as I see it is to allow the payment of normal interim and final dividends, (total 21 cps) so I will vote no, (not that my small stake will make any difference).

To Balance's point above which I think is a good one. The current deal as tabled provides the accrual of $3.83 - $3.60 = 23 cents in value between now and 31 March 2022 and after that if the deal isn't implemented by 31/3/21 there's up to another 10 cents in value. Not a done deal yet but 23 / 360 = 6.4% return in 5 2/3'rds months = annual rate of return of 13.5% plus the possibility of a counter offer. Chance of Commerce Commission turning it down but I am confident they will find a work around for that. Definitely not a sell at this point and maybe Balance is right, perhaps its a buy ?

[FTG]

Z have spouted on about the annual divvy being 19-23 cents, (mid point 21 cents in annual dividends) which suggests a fair interim dividend should be 10.5 cents. In that context to only allow shareholders to have half the dividend they're entitled too Mike, his team and the board have again failed shareholders. (I say "again" because over the years they've consistently failed shareholders with their lack of vision and leadership).

Really the minimum satisfactory deal as I see it is to allow the payment of normal interim and final dividends, (total 21 cps) so I will vote no, (not that my small stake will make any difference).

To Balance's point above which I think is a good one. The current deal as tabled provides the accrual of $3.83 - $3.60 = 23 cents in value between now and 31 March 2022 and after that if the deal isn't implemented by 31/3/21 there's up to another 10 cents in value. Not a done deal yet but 23 / 360 = 6.4% return in 5 2/3'rds months = annual rate of return of 13.5% plus the possibility of a counter offer. Chance of Commerce Commission turning it down but I am confident they will find a work around for that. Definitely not a sell at this point and maybe Balance is right, perhaps its a buy ?

From what you can see Beagle, are there any sneaky backdoor exit clauses for Ampol in the SIA that we should keep an eye on? e.g. Similar to how the MET or ABA deals were structured.

[see weed]

Z have spouted on about the annual divvy being 19-23 cents, (mid point 21 cents in annual dividends) which suggests a fair interim dividend should be 10.5 cents. In that context to only allow shareholders to have half the dividend they're entitled too Mike, his team and the board have again failed shareholders. (I say "again" because over the years they've consistently failed shareholders with their lack of vision and leadership).

Really the minimum satisfactory deal as I see it is to allow the payment of normal interim and final dividends, (total 21 cps) so I will vote no, (not that my small stake will make any difference).

To Balance's point above which I think is a good one. The current deal as tabled provides the accrual of $3.83 - $3.60 = 23 cents in value between now and 31 March 2022 and after that if the deal isn't implemented by 31/3/21 there's up to another 10 cents in value. Not a done deal yet but 23 / 360 = 6.4% return in 5 2/3'rds months = annual rate of return of 13.5% plus the possibility of a counter offer. Chance of Commerce Commission turning it down but I am confident they will find a work around for that. Definitely not a sell at this point and maybe Balance is right, perhaps its a buy ?

I have an idea. First, is ZEL the only NZ owned petrol etc supplier? If so NZ is going to have to buy all our petrol etc supplies from overseas companies, and all profits are going overseas as most of our banks etc. Why don't someone put on social media that NZ is going to sell our only supplier to aussi and it is going cheap, then tell everyone to quickly buy shares in ZEL and sp will shoot up to $4.50c. Now who wants to sell their shares to aussi now at such a discount of $3.78c. I am with Beagle on this and will vote no for this to go ahead, and am looking forward to the next div. So come on NZ, buy now and lets get that sp above $4. Go now and buy 5,000,000 shares before close on Friday, WE CAN DO IT!!! GO YOU LITTLE BEAUTY!!!

[see weed]

I have an idea. First, is ZEL the only NZ owned petrol etc supplier? If so NZ is going to have to buy all our petrol etc supplies from overseas companies, and all profits are going overseas as most of our banks etc. Why don't someone put on social media that NZ is going to sell our only supplier to aussi and it is going cheap, then tell everyone to quickly buy shares in ZEL and sp will shoot up to $4.50c. Now who wants to sell their shares to aussi now at such a discount of $3.78c. I am with Beagle on this and will vote no for this to go ahead, and am looking forward to the next div. So come on NZ, buy now and lets get that sp above $4. Go now and buy 5,000,000 shares before close on Friday, WE CAN DO IT!!! GO YOU LITTLE BEAUTY!!!

I will start the ball rolling and have just put in an order to buy 10,000 at $3.61c

[nztx]

Z have spouted on about the annual divvy being 19-23 cents, (mid point 21 cents in annual dividends) which suggests a fair interim dividend should be 10.5 cents. In that context to only allow shareholders to have half the dividend they're entitled too Mike, his team and the board have again failed shareholders. (I say "again" because over the years they've consistently failed shareholders with their lack of vision and leadership).

Really the minimum satisfactory deal as I see it is to allow the payment of normal interim and final dividends, (total 21 cps) so I will vote no, (not that my small stake will make any difference).

To Balance's point above which I think is a good one. The current deal as tabled provides the accrual of $3.83 - $3.60 = 23 cents in value between now and 31 March 2022 and after that if the deal isn't implemented by 31/3/21 there's up to another 10 cents in value. Not a done deal yet but 23 / 360 = 6.4% return in 5 2/3'rds months = annual rate of return of 13.5% plus the possibility of a counter offer. Chance of Commerce Commission turning it down but I am confident they will find a work around for that. Definitely not a sell at this point and maybe Balance is right, perhaps its a buy ?

Sounds like Stakeholders are being ripped over badly on both the Offer amount and the Dividend to me

What are Z's Board smoking to recommend such a low offer and inferring Stakeholders should also get ripped over on
the dividend or is their past 23.0 cps dividend & guidance up the pole ?

Time to deliver some underarm bowling back to AMPOL IMO

[nztx]

I will start the ball rolling and have just put in an order to buy 10,000 at $3.61c

Time to back up the truck to join you - my friend

Let's see whether AMPOL can find further coin & forgo out a fairer share of the ZEL divy