ZEL - Z Energy.

[Poet]

I'm also underwhelmed and will vote "no" when the time comes.

Why are NZ boards such wimps when it comes to takeover negotiations?

I'm not at all happy with the clause in the agreement that allows Ampol to have another bid in the event that a competing offer emerges. The Z board should not have allowed this clause. It is tantamount to an admission that Ampol hasn't made its best offer and won't do so unless a rival bid emerges.

I think such clauses should be specifically excluded by the takeovers legislation.

Z should have told Ampol to put their best price on the table now ie the price that they wouldn't go above in any circumstances - that way there wouldn't be a need for an option to rebid

[see weed]

Is Ampol buying ZEL as is where is? Who is paying for the Marsden refinery conversion to import only terminal? And how much will that cost?

[Muse]

I'm also underwhelmed and will vote "no" when the time comes.

Why are NZ boards such wimps when it comes to takeover negotiations?

I'm not at all happy with the clause in the agreement that allows Ampol to have another bid in the event that a competing offer emerges. The Z board should not have allowed this clause. It is tantamount to an admission that Ampol hasn't made its best offer and won't do so unless a rival bid emerges.

I think such clauses should be specifically excluded by the takeovers legislation.

Z should have told Ampol to put their best price on the table now ie the price that they wouldn't go above in any circumstances - that way there wouldn't be a need for an option to rebid

Well ill be voting yes. I sort of see it as now or never for a takeover of Z. The uptake of EV has been faster than many had guesses and now more EV sales than diesel sales. This business lost its way in a dying industry. It will get hit from time to time from lockdowns and the price is full from an ebitda multiple perspective especially considering it just a retailer in a sunset sector. Without a bid this thing will track lower and lower in perpetuity.

[winner69]

Comparative global companies are EV:EBITDA multiples of 7.8x to 9.5x with an average of 8.4x. Ampol is on 7.9x

Offer put ZEL at 12.7x

Seems more than a generous offer on that basis.

No doubt Calibre in independent review will agree and come up with a fair range of $3.55 to 3.90

[bull....]

i be voting yes , be under 3 if not for the deal

[Beagle]

Comparative global companies are EV:EBITDA multiples of 7.8x to 9.5x with an average of 8.4x. Ampol is on 7.9x

Offer put ZEL at 12.7x

Seems more than a generous offer on that basis.

No doubt Calibre in independent review will agree and come up with a fair range of $3.55 to 3.90

Yes...thankyou for sharing that information with me by email last evening. It does appear Ampol are paying a fair control premium for what in reality is a very tired business in a sunset industry. As Fiordland Moose has suggested above, its probably now or never and EV's are selling like hot cakes. If there's no competing bid in the next wee while its time to take the money and run.

Some of those force majeure clauses cover a multitude of evils...if I get especially bored i might drill down some more into those 108 pages and see what else is hiding in plain sight in that large can of worms.

[winner69]

Is Ampol buying ZEL as is where is? Who is paying for the Marsden refinery conversion to import only terminal? And how much will that cost?

They saying Ampol’s bid is also contingent on the Marsden Point refinery proceeding with a planned transition to an import terminal, which will bring its refining and distribution infrastructure to bear.

Jeez that was a sharp quake down here just now

[Beagle]

As at the date of this agreement, Z Energy is not in negotiations or discussions
(other than with Ampol and its Representatives) with any party relating to, or which
may reasonably be expected to lead to, any Competing Proposal.

Mined out that information from the 108 pages

[see weed]

Does anyone know the land value of all the Z sites in NZ? Has that been considered? And if the deal fell through and sp went back down to $3.10c, that would still be a good yld stock to hold. eg. When the McDonalds brothers sold out to the franchises, that is when McDonald became a multi billion dollar company. The money is not in the hamburgers but in the land. So what we are selling here is not a sunset business, but a new future sunrise business which will house all the new EV recharging outlets. Come on NZ, lets not loose another company to overseas interests.

[Muse]

Comparative global companies are EV:EBITDA multiples of 7.8x to 9.5x with an average of 8.4x. Ampol is on 7.9x

Offer put ZEL at 12.7x

Seems more than a generous offer on that basis.

No doubt Calibre in independent review will agree and come up with a fair range of $3.55 to 3.90

Good analysis. Great to provide context to the offer. In light of this anyone who plans to vote no want to outline the fact basis for it? IE beyond just saying “its too low” or “doesnt start with a 4” ?