ZEL - Z Energy.

[Balance]

Doubt if Ampol buying ....are they even allowed to?

As Balance says the arb guys are at play now

By their activity, arb funds often end up being the decisive players to help push a takeover over the line and in some instances, demand a higher offer.

[dreamcatcher]

Morning Brief

"Fuel retailer Z Energy was hard hit by the pandemic as the world stopped burning jet fuel and demand for vehicle fuel also declined.

The stock dramatically almost halved in value, from $4.75 in January 2020 to trade as low as $2.52 this May.

However, this changed when Australian fuel company Ampol stepped in with a takeover offer at $3.78 per share that gave investors a possible exit.

Today Z’s board of directors endorsed the takeover offer after Ampol agreed to allow the company to pay out $26 million of dividends to current shareholders, effectively boosting the offer to $3.83.

This sent the share price soaring 6.8% to reach $3.61, still short of the takeover offer which depends on approval from regulators and shareholders, as well as the Marsden Point refinery transitioning to an import operation and final sign off from the high court."

Jet Fuel ready for takeoff shortly..........

[sb9]

By their activity, arb funds often end up being the decisive players to help push a takeover over the line and in some instances, demand a higher offer.

Doubt if Ampol buying ....are they even allowed to?

As Balance says the arb guys are at play now

Looks that way, most off market trades are going thro at 3.625 mark.

[Beagle]

By their activity, arb funds often end up being the decisive players to help push a takeover over the line and in some instances, demand a higher offer.

Looking at the depth the arb players have woken up and joined the party so we can expect gradual price appreciation with the passage of time. As you said, better than returns on money in the bank but perhaps not without slightly more risk. This hound is starting to fall to sleep with this one...chances of a competing bid looking slimmer by the day...

[bull....]

Previously before covid Z was a $6 baby providing fuel for transport and airlines. Ampol's T/O sees value where holders don't and prepared to pay a premium, furthermore quitting their own Gull brand to acquire............ Goal is to make money right ?

Just curious on others thoughts

ampol will sell gull , maybe float the retail stores like ampol did with there network in australia into a property trust and they say ampol has already had pre- lim talks with NZCC during due diligence and the govt maybe supportive due to better fuel security from a bigger player with there own refinery

[see weed]

Something strange going on here lately. Sp been at 3.62 - 3.63 for last couple of days. Some group of holders don't want sp to go up and another lot don't want sp to go down. Are friends of Ampol keeping sp down to make it look like a better deal?

[Beagle]

Lots of water to flow under the bridge before you get your $3.78 and only 5 cents extra in dividend and 1.65 cents per month extra after 31 March 2022.
Some big arbitrage funds will buy that gain they think they are highly likely to get over the period to when the payout occurs, (assuming it does), and lots of others will take the money early and exit.

This sort of situation leads to very heavy depth on both sides and is completely normal and something we saw in the MET takeover situation in recent times. Nothing untoward going on here in my opinion. Holders can either take the money, run and buy some other opportunity or hold and gradually see the share price head slowly northwards as this deal slowly progresses.

Other possibilities exist but are most probably unlikely. 1. A higher offer from another party. 2. A withdraw of this offer for some reason. 3. This deal failing one of the conditions built into the agreement.

[nztx]

Petrol prices: 'Fuel has never been so expensive' and prices could rise higher

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...ld-rise-higher


Fair Offer Price based on this ? Yeah Nah .. Nah

[malreid]

Wont most people recharge at home - something you cant do with petrol? People NEED to fill up their car with petrol at a station but wont need to charge at a station for most of their charges. Suddenly youve lost a tremendous proportion of your foot traffic.....

Yup. If/when I go EV I certainly won't be looking to hang around some kind of service station or convenience store to charge up. It'll be at home, work or at the shopping mall or supermarket while I have other things to do.

Our local supermarket location already has several quick chargers installed and I can see this becoming part of the supermarket/mall business model rather than a transition/conversion of petrol stations to some kind of EV hubs. I only see that working if the fossil fuel companies become EV fleet car share companies like Mevo.

Hydrogen? More of a front runner. The business to invest in though is the one that gets the job of decommissioning and remediation of redundant fossil fuel infrastructure.

Biofuels will grow, but only for aviation and shipping until the electric and hydrogen alternatives become much more scalable.

[Beagle]

Agree mostly about home EV charging but on a road trip its different.
Relatively new sections of the Waikato expressway are an interesting case study on what the future may hold. Regular off ramps to "Service centers" which contain EV charging stations which may or may not belong to the service station, sorry I can't remember but more likely are installed by the likes of https://charge.net.nz/ so charge-net pays for the install and reaps the benefits but they're certainly adjacent to the fuel service station and of course there's a small range of other convenience stores, cafe's and one or two fast food outlets.

I am not so sure anymore just installing a fast charger at the average Z service station in a provincial area is going to be sufficient to attract EV drivers attendance as I think people expect more than just the facilities offered by a Z service station while they wait for their EV's to charge up.

Mrs B and I sometimes stop as these service centers because they're a good place to take a break and usually have a decent café with food and coffee that's vastly better than what you'd get at an average service station.

No matter which way you slice and dice it (even just compared to BP's substantially better food and coffee offer ) Z's stores look tired and dated and its a sunset industry. Jet fuel demand isn't coming screaming back in huge volumes anytime soon either in my opinion.