ZEL - Z Energy.

[Joshuatree]

Craigs increase target price to $6.22 reduce to hold.

$6.49 if regulators approve(likely)

[nextbigthing]

Craigs increase target price to $6.22 reduce to hold.

$6.49 if regulators approve(likely)

What makes you say the regulators are likely to approve?

[Joshuatree]

From what I've read ; and re still re 51% fuel vol from Bp ,Gull, Mobil etc. Craigs "high likelihood".Going by the re 18% s/p rise i think the mkt thinks it likely too.
But its certainly not a done deal for awhile yet.

[IAK]

Rod Oram's commentary on Z Energy's purchase of Caltex.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/pr...tator-rod-oram

[macduffy]

Rod Oram's commentary on Z Energy's purchase of Caltex.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/pr...tator-rod-oram

Interesting that all Caltex stations are owner-operated. I hadn't realised that was the case and somehow assumed it was a company/owner-operator mix like Z's.

[Joshuatree]

Excellent , thanksIAK. I like the word Synergy and i think Rod oram suggested that when/if they get the go ahead for caltex the s/p will go up by the same amount again or something like that.

[Onion]

Rod Oram's commentary on Z Energy's purchase of Caltex.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/pr...tator-rod-oram

Rod Oram reckons that about half the value of the Caltex purchase is now priced in. I guess the market is hedging its bets on whether the deal will be approved.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah needs to be a done deal,risk removed, and the share price will respond. Then the cap raise. A few comments emerging suggesting it may prove harder to convince regulators and/or ZEL may have to sell off few parts of the business.S/P drifting back a bit from $6.20 to $5.95 but finished at $6 today.

[Joshuatree]

MBIE higher
GRM lower than march
Fuel vols lower than march 2015 and june 2014
total Z transaction count down to 14.1 million .2014 14.6million , 3 less s/stations
Average weekly store sales down on march

Decline in fuel volumes quite marked even like for like. Take off the one off(?) 109 ml export last year and vol still down.
Lack/decline of growth pushed the s/p down. Dissapointing but maybe an indicator of a slowing economy.

[Joshuatree]

Rod Oram reckons that about half the value of the Caltex purchase is now priced in. I guess the market is hedging its bets on whether the deal will be approved.

Holding up very well despite todays potentially neg news re poss dated tax grab; big holders confident of the caltex deal being given the nod; and an independent director announced.ZEL will surely do what ever it takes to get the nod from com com.Downside risk still there though but I'm holding atp.Sold a few at the top to reduce risk more.