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18-11-2021, 02:51 PM
#2651
Member
Originally Posted by see weed
That's all good, but what about all those old V8 classic cars? There is over a thousand of them that go to the Beach Hop at Whangamata every year. How are they going to get there with no petrol? Will they have to drop their V8 motors out and put in electric motors and have a recording of the rumbling old V8 motor under the bonnet? Ampol knows this and will raise the price as time goes on. Kiwis in the future will be complaining about the price of imported fuel to run their V8s...... How does $40 a liter sound? Are yes, Ampol know what they are doing. And all the profits going back to Aussi again. Also looking forward to 7c div. next month and reluctantly the $3.78 takeover plus 5c div or whatever next year.
The large investments by the likes of NPD in stations are slowing down but not stopping. Those guys aren’t dumb. Fossil fuels will be with us for a long time to come.
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18-11-2021, 02:57 PM
#2652
Originally Posted by Ogg
Yeah the average new car lasts 15 years but once the transition starts (which is now) the decline will start from year one and get progressively worse.
The largest consumers would have the biggest incentive to change first, thus exacerbating the problem early on.
It doesn't take much change to skew the economics quickly.
Yeah the average punter can't afford electric now but the progressive government and additional pressure to hit new climate change targets will force punters to "take the hit" and transition before they would ideally want to. Social pressure will build too as more people go electric those that withhold will be outcast. Same with covid jabs etc, once the mass gets going everyone falls like sheep to avoid being outcast. IT'S NOT ONLY ABOUT ECONOMICS!!
social pressure aside if you dont have the means the only way you going to go electric is thru a big fat subsidy and for the really poor to be given one
one step ahead of the herd
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18-11-2021, 03:34 PM
#2653
Member
If it were just cars the outlook would be at risk of flipping quite quickly, with one change of Govt (eg treble the tax). But oil is deeply embedded into the whole supply chain. Probably military as well. As long as those global requirements are in play (ie besides the more obvious planes) there will be plenty being sucked out of the earth so cost effective supply ought linger. And if retailers start to exit NZ, being the last one might be fruitful. Might....
Furthermore the E in ZEL is for energy not oil so there's no reason to be convinced it will simply be worth zero in 20 years.
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18-11-2021, 03:54 PM
#2654
gotta remember ampol want z sites not the petrol
one step ahead of the herd
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18-11-2021, 05:43 PM
#2655
EVs may or may not be the future - the jury is still out on that - it could go several different ways. But putting aside wishful thinking, there are some pretty serious roadblocks to a quick takeover by EVs
Current world production of cars is approximately 100m per year.
By 2030, the world will (with a very very strong tail wind) be able to produce 20m EVs - and that number is based on some pretty serious thinking about supply chains and resource constraints etc.
The price of an EV may or may not fall, a lot will depend on supply and demand of the various resources that go into the production. With increasing demand and limited supply, you'd want to lean towards prices rising wouldn't you?
One thing for certain, the governments of the world won't be subsidising everyone's EV in ten years from now.
Z has at least a 30 year runway from here, and even Z will be nimble enough to reposition in that timeframe. As usual, your Kiwi owners quick to startle and get tucked.
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18-11-2021, 08:40 PM
#2656
Junior Member
At the current price I'm thinking about loading up some more. Ampol got a good deal here. Average age of nz car is around 12 -15 years. Pump prices are high, margins are even higher...Auckland about to be unleashed, refinery to shut. This is going to be a cash cow imo.
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19-11-2021, 07:49 AM
#2657
If the deal goes through a cash cow for Ampol, not Z shareholders........
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19-11-2021, 09:08 PM
#2658
Member
Totally why else would they be buying z neither company worries about shareholders really , its all about the Money!
Originally Posted by Grimy
If the deal goes through a cash cow for Ampol, not Z shareholders........
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21-11-2021, 07:09 AM
#2659
Interesting article on BusinessDesk
ComCom asks tough questions over Ampol's takeover of Z.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/c...-takeover-of-z
Prob paywalled
Regulatory approval for Ampol’s $2 billion takeover of Z Energy may not be as straightforward as many seem to think, with the regulator questioning how it can be certain proposed arrangements will guarantee competition.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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22-11-2021, 07:49 AM
#2660
one of the key terms of the t/o crossed off
Z Energy welcomes final investment decision on ITS
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383227
one step ahead of the herd
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