ZEL - Z Energy.

[Balance]

Interesting article on BusinessDesk



ComCom asks tough questions over Ampol's takeover of Z.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/c...-takeover-of-z
Prob paywalled

Regulatory approval for Ampol’s $2 billion takeover of Z Energy may not be as straightforward as many seem to think, with the regulator questioning how it can be certain proposed arrangements will guarantee competition.

As they should - I pumped up my car at Gull over the weekend with 98 ($2.72 vs $2.93 at Z).

[ralph]

As they should - I pumped up my car at Gull over the weekend with 98 ($2.72 vs $2.93 at Z).

It may soon be the other way around Pumping up on the cheap at Z and getting my coffees at the wild bean still .

[winner69]

A few months passed since offer made. I bailed shortly after

But what will shareholders get now

Seeing the duration has shortened is 349 or lower a reasonable punt?

[Beagle]

A few months passed since offer made. I bailed shortly after

But what will shareholders get now

Seeing the duration has shortened is 349 or lower a reasonable punt?

I did the same and was wondering that myself but I think this will drag on well into 2022. Final end game about August or September I reckon and even then its not a sure thing.

Questions apparent.

Do you want to tie your capital up for that long for a really modest return ?

Is the Overseas Investment Office truly politically independent or does the extreme woke leftist Government's influence play a part in their final decision ?

Same question for the Commerce Commission ?

What about all the other hurdles this deal has to pass, for example will they find a buyer for Gull Petroleum ?

What's the downside if the deal fails for any reason, 50 cents, 70 cents, more ?

Isn't there a more productive home for my capital on a risk reward basis ?

I asked myself these questions and it doesn't really look like an attractive opportunity to me especially with the possible upside being quite modest.

[Yeet_Shares]

If it fails we end up with a company with a high chance of paying great future dividends. With margins on the rise and closure of the refinery I can see why they're trying to buy it...The average age of nz's vehical fleet is in the 10 - 15 year range, so even if we imported all electric right now it would take years to change the fleet out.
Electric car impact is years and years away and then there the larger vehicles for which there is no viable green solution.

[Poet]

Hmm, ZEL off 7c this morning with 400K shares traded. No obvious explanation

[see weed]

Poor little Z taking a wee hit this morning. Have sold down 34,000 so far this month at good profit, but might start buying back in if it goes any lower.

[Beagle]

Hmm, ZEL off 7c this morning with 400K shares traded. No obvious explanation

Hmmm... Market wondering about political influence on regulatory bodies affecting the chance this deal proceeds ?

[Balance]

Hmm, ZEL off 7c this morning with 400K shares traded. No obvious explanation

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets...r-2021.pdf.pdf

Commerce Commission issued statement of issues last night.

Principal issue appears to be the divestment of Gull.

Trade sale off the agenda so it looks like an IPO but with Ampoil retaining (initially) a majority shareholding before further sell down.

Also, decision on application now deferred until mid March.

[Poet]

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets...r-2021.pdf.pdf

Commerce Commission issued statement of issues last night.

Principal one appears to be the divestment of Gull.

Trade sale off the agenda so it looks like an IPO but with Ampoil retaining (initially) a majority shareholding before further sell down.

Thanks, you'd think that statement would require ZEL to make an announcement to the market and a short trading halt.