SPY - Smartpay Holdings

[Felonius]

Thank you for your observations Moose - they are always thought provoking.
Unfortunately Martyn Pomeroy was unable to attend last night's meeting - probably on account of the cyber attack on Smartpay's systems.
The CFO of Aroa Biotech James Agnew took his place.

[winner69]

Some big percentage growth numbers in 1st Quarter

Looks really good


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...369/399231.pdf

[haewai]

Do those numbers support a $461m valuation though?
Question to self really.

[Rawz]

Do those numbers support a $461m valuation though?
Question to self really.

I was going to say the same thing. Priced for many many years of growth

[Muse]

I was going to say the same thing. Priced for many many years of growth

hard to argue with the above comments....hope that growth continues.

[winner69]

SPY share price back into the 130’s where it was 6 months ago

Is the love affair with SPY over?

[Balance]

SPY share price back into the 130’s where it was 6 months ago

Is the love affair with SPY over?

Several big shareholders taking turns to sell and reduce their shareholdings - takes a very brave or foolish investor to stand in their way!

[alokdhir]

Why it shud be foolish to buy SPY at $ 1.30 levels while it was great buy over $ 1.75 ...promoted by all Gurus ...fails me ...

Maybe different time horizons ...talk of $ 2 soon becomes race to $ 1 ....no one talks or thinks long term ...buy and holdable good stocks are dead ??

Or is SPY good for that still thus much better priced then before ??

[Balance]

Why it shud be foolish to buy SPY at $ 1.30 levels while it was great buy over $ 1.75 ...promoted by all Gurus ...fails me ...

Maybe different time horizons ...talk of $ 2 soon becomes race to $ 1 ....no one talks or thinks long term ...buy and holdable good stocks are dead ??

Or is SPY good for that still thus much better priced than before ??

Time in market vs timing - the old chestnut?

[Muse]

There has been modest selling amongst some of the substantial holders, with a handful filing SSH notices with holdings coming down a percent or so, but overall volumes during the SP compression have been lower than average. NZX/ASX aggregate daily turnover over the last year is 329.5k shares/day, last 20 trading sessions t/o has been 266.4k, last 40 days (2 months) 209k, and l60 trading days (3mnths) 274k. So not really the stampede Balance refers to.

But why would instos be selling? Probably taking some profits after an exceptional run (both financially and in the SP) along rational I outlined below on 21 June when the SP was at $1.78.

I do reckon while the growth prospects for smartpay are very strong, and it’ll continue to grow too and bottom line well, holders need to reign in their expectations. Aussie retail is getting hit hard and 2024 will be even harder. Some of that will be felt in the # of transactions per terminal, and some via churn. I cant help but feel growth in net terminals maxed in FY23, but fy24 will still be robust, with full year contributions from terminals added last year, as well as its pro inflation business model contributing.

Given the SP was touching on 60c in mid 2022 and peaked very briefly at $1.94 its clear the SP overshot in the short term and plenty of substantial profit taking to be had.

Another day to day issue at play is the company discontinued providing its quarterly trading updates. Given the strong operational and financial performance that kept a lot of positive news flow which probably aided the momentum. For the 2024 financial year to date there would have been two quarterly updates provided by now, which haven't (although a snapshot of Q1's excellent financial results were provided in the AGM preso) and it won't be till the end of november before the half year results are released. I think this adds to and creates a 'pop and flop' trading element to its SP movements.

Long term risk free rates have risen markedly in the last 3 months so high growth, high valuation companies ought to have their SP marked down accordingly.

A huge growth opportunity exists for the company with the potential conversion of up to 30,000 NZ terminals they currently lease to taking over the acquiring function. I suspect that is why a lot of the large instos are still hanging on to decent sized parcels. The financial impact of that not reflected in broker forecasts or consensus estimates as early days, but if they pull it off, it'll turbocharge an already fast growing profit base.