Gold Juniors

[JBmurc]

My bid just got hit at 80.5 and then some bigger buyers arrived. I like it when a plan comes together. Now all we need is for Gold to hold above USD1320 for the next few days (and of course that's nowhere near certain).

Cheers,

BC

the way the gold price is going you might get them even cheaper come monday >>>>bit the bullet and took a 10% loss on RMS will most likely put the funds into CFE or OXX ....still waiting on my PGI 8c fill pretty gappy on the close offers 8.5c could well make back my RMS losses monday

[Bobcat.]

Buying into Gold stocks last Friday looks to be a good move...for three reasons:

1. Where there's fear, there's opportunity for the contrarian traders amongst us;
2. Summers has withdrawn from the race for the Fed Chairman role
3. POG has rebounded to hold above 1330USD (although the USD decline over the weekend accounts for some of this movement).

I'm predicting > 5% rise in the price of most quality ASX gold stocks today, and depending on Wednesday's meeting (6am Thurs morning NZST), their sp could easily lift much higher. Last Friday was a good time to buy. What's equally important of course is knowing when to sell.

BC

[Daytr]

Moosie, Hindsight is a great thing & with Yellen now likely Fed chair could see gold turn around. Think tonight's performance for gold should tell us, could be wrong but think we may see gold reverse here. I just picked up some KCN. Broke one of my investment rules here as I don't like the management, but it does look very under valued & also has massive leverage to the gold price as have large reserves & resources.

I am of the opinion that last Friday was an absolutely terrible time to buy! if you did you missed the 20%+ rally and bought on a downward pointing chart (all indicators down) with inflation/fear premium still on before the FOMC meeting which could absolutely demolish the gold price! risk vs reward does not stack up at all and the smart move is to buy once the FOMC minutes are out. I hope for your sake BC you aren't in too deep...

[Bobcat.]

My offer at 179.5c on KCN just got hit. Last Friday's purchase at 170c worked OK for me. A 5.5% gain in less than 3 hours of market time is not something I'm complaining about. FML, GRY and EVN are better quality stocks and so I have offers on them set quite a bit higher than current sp, which of course will take longer to fill.

KCN had a lot of upward momentum before its result earlier this month brought it spiralling down, but I figured not all those previous buyers had lost interest -- today's bounce-back was not surprising. By getting the timing right, a dead-cat bounce can produce faster profits than a long-term hold on a higher quality stock.

BC

[Daytr]

Yep Bobcat, certainly not enamoured with the company & its recent performance, just think with a MC of A$260M being a 200k toz producer & they seemed to have faced the music in regards writedowns & looking at cost reductions also the SP has been smacked almost back to the lows. Its a bit of a punt & out of my normal investment criteria, but the value is there as long as there is some improvement in performance & they have a bigger exposure to POG than most with large reserve & resource base.

[Bobcat.]

I'm now taking a look at SBM (St Barbara) and AQG (Alacer) both larger - second and third in size behind Newcrest.

Daytr - What if anything have you ascertained about these two? I'll give you my opinion shortly. Meanwhile I continue to hold GRY, FML and EVN.

BC

[Bobcat.]

SBM:

3 assets - Leonora (WA) and 2 open pit mines at Simberi and Gold Ridge (both in PNG)
365koz (FY13) with 395-445koz forecasted for FY14.
Cash $129m with $328m interest bearing debt (25% gearing)
5.2Moz reserves and 13.2Moz resources
Recently issued $US250m senior secured notes (5-year @8.9%)
Injury free mining record in FY13
$141m EBITDA (down 25% on FY12)
$29m NPAT (down 70% on FY12)
Consolidated cash operating costs of ~$A920/oz

Others' thoughts or additional information?

[Bobcat.]

AQG:

2 assets - Copler (Turkey) and ABU (Australian asset for sale)
Mainly operates in Turkey (owns 80% of Copler Gold mine east of Ankara) ~200koz per annum
8.5Moz resources
$A260m working capital (cash) plus $5.4m bank loan
$25m adjusted net profit (8c eps)
Cash operating costs of USD400/oz (=~$A440/oz)
All-in (consolidated) costs of ~ $840/oz (=~$A900/oz)

Others' thoughts or additional information?

[JBmurc]

AQG:

2 assets - Copler (Turkey) and ABU (Australian asset for sale)
Mainly operates in Turkey (owns 80% of Copler Gold mine east of Ankara) ~200koz per annum
8.5Moz resources
$A260m working capital (cash) plus $5.4m bank loan
$25m adjusted net profit (8c eps)
Cash operating costs of USD400/oz (=~$A440/oz)
All-in (consolidated) costs of ~ $840/oz (=~$A900/oz)

Others' thoughts or additional information?

Hard to believe the market values at only 307mill ?? seems to cheap with that much cash in the bank >>>

disc-brought some more PGI sellers looking weak will run any day now 10-11c ST target to sell a few

[Bobcat.]

Resolute Mining (RSG):

Operates in Syama (Mali), Ravenswood (Q'Land) and Golden Pride (Tanzania)
436koz per annum
$A85m NPAT (down 20% on FY12) with an EPS of 13.2 (16.1 for FY12)
Positive cashflow of $A154m
Cash costs of $A811/oz and all-in (consolidated) costs of $A1375/oz)
Conservative balance sheet (no divi)

Others' thoughts or additional information?