Gold Juniors

[JBmurc]

My thoughts Bobcat is the PM sector is well oversold .....and I'm sure you could easy add another doz gold producers that are very cheap on pure historic basis of profit margin +reserves/resources in place +PM prices

[Daytr]

AQG does sound undervalued whilst not having researched, will have to take a further look. There will be a discount for country risk, although Turkey as long as not near Mid/East boarder is pretty stable. RSG is a bit like KCN, management has underperformed although RSG has generally improved their performance in the last year or two, haven't done much reading on them lately. The CFO Greg Fitzgerald is a hell of a nice guy, but overall their performance has been pretty lackluster imo. but will refresh my research on them & revert.

[Bobcat.]

Here's an interesting article on Indian and Chinese gold buying, and its seasonal patterns.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/2013...This-Year.html

Note the habitual purchasing of gold in September ahead of October gifts for harvests and weddings.

I don't think I can sit on my hands much longer. Anytime tomorrow or Wednesday (i.e. ahead of the FOMC) when the POG dips dramatically (i.e. as big sellers complete their current orders), I'm turning bullish and will buy up large.

[Bobcat.]

AQG does sound undervalued whilst not having researched, will have to take a further look. There will be a discount for country risk, although Turkey as long as not near Mid/East boarder is pretty stable. RSG is a bit like KCN, management has underperformed although RSG has generally improved their performance in the last year or two, haven't done much reading on them lately. The CFO Greg Fitzgerald is a hell of a nice guy, but overall their performance has been pretty lackluster imo. but will refresh my research on them & revert.

Daytr - RSG has a much higher All-in cost of $A1375/oz (c.f. others listed above which operate at under $1000/oz - AQG, SBM, etc).

AQG is trying to sell out of Australia and put all its eggs into one Turkish basket (but is otherwise attractive with a very low operating cost). My pick of the three is probably SBM, which if I time it right could climb up easily and quickly from its current 59-62c range. I'll be watching it closely tomorrow.

Disc: Current holdings in FML, GRY, EVN, OZL, PDN, PNA, WHN, GBG, ERA, JPR and CFE.

[Bobcat.]

Here's a low cost gold and silver producer with a Reuters BUY recommendation:

TRY - Troy Resources:

Four Gold Mines - Sandstone (WA) plus three Sth American gold mines - Andorinhas, Brazil (to close in 2015); Sertao, Brazil; and Casposo, Argentina (also Silver) - plus this year acquired Azimuth Resources in Guyana (mining friendly, large 8000sq km land package, English speaking).
Producing 103koz of gold per annum
Has paid 13 cash divis over past 13 years
Builds mines quickly at low cost
NPAT of 18.6m (40% down from 31.6m in FY12)
$21m cash with $25m debt (Net debt/Equity of 16.2% c.f. 34% in 2012)
New $40m debt facility
Cash costs of ~$A700/oz (up from $A500/oz in 2012). All-in op costs not disclosed.

It's now on my watch list.

Other's thoughts/comments?
BC

[Bobcat.]

Here's two more attractive low cost gold producers :

Perseus (PRU):
West African gold producer
NPAT of $41m (EPS = 9c)
Op Cash flow of $47m
Debt free ($481m current assets against current liabilities of $447m)
All-in Op costs of $1,150USD (=$A1250)
Cost reduction programme includes Directors fees reducing 15%
(Rueters recommend a HOLD)

Teranga (TGZ):
200koz with All-in Op Costs of ~$1060/oz
FY13 sales increased 42% with revenue increasing 21%
NPAT of $7.2m (eps = 3c), down from $14m (6cps) in FY12
Hedge free
Recent amendment to $60m loan facility with McQuairie Bank
Cash of $53m (incl $9m of bullion receivables)
Op Cash flow of $21m (for 2Q13)
Definitive deal with Republic of Senegal recently signed

Comments?

[Corporate]

Hard to believe the market values at only 307mill ?? seems to cheap with that much cash in the bank >>>

disc-brought some more PGI sellers looking weak will run any day now 10-11c ST target to sell a few

I had to take a double look at this. Direct broking lists just over 100m shares on issue. Yet when I look at the Q2 presentation they company states 291m fully diluted.

I've only had 2 mins to have a look so I could be wrong but that makes it much less attractive!

[macduffy]

I had to take a double look at this. Direct broking lists just over 100m shares on issue. Yet when I look at the Q2 presentation they company states 291m fully diluted.

I've only had 2 mins to have a look so I could be wrong but that makes it much less attractive!

The presentation of the 2012 result shows 288.3m shares outstanding. The exercising of a few options could account for the difference between 291m and 288.3m.

http://www.alacergold.com/files/q4_a...tion_final.pdf

[Corporate]

The presentation of the 2012 result shows 288.3m shares outstanding. The exercising of a few options could account for the difference between 291m and 288.3m.

http://www.alacergold.com/files/q4_a...tion_final.pdf

Yes, but a previous post by JB mentioned the market valued the company at $307mil which is no where near the actual market cap by the looks of things. More like 3 times that.

[macduffy]

Agreed, Corporate.

For some reason, The Age, for one, shows 103m shares and $307m M.Cap. Someone has it wrong and I suspect it's The Age?