GEO - GeoOP - Work Management Software

[Cobber]

Hey mate,

Last reported ARPU was around $7 /month not $20. GEO has aspirations to lift to $20 over time.

As I have previously explained, I believe there is some risk that ARPU has remained around $7 / month - it could have even declined - we just wont know until they report FY revenue and we can do the maths.

I have a high suspicion over anyone who reports user growth rather than revenues, when they could easily have reported sales. Especially when the gap from actual ARPU ($7) to what they want you to believe ARPU is ($20) is so large.

My suspicion is they are focussing on reporting user growth to the market because actual revenue growth will be quite pathetic given the resources they are expending to get it. eg MOA focussing on sales volume growth funded by decreasing margin even though the story they originally told was that they were a craft brewer whos strong margins would eb retained.

eg. also hate SLI reporting on meaningless metrics such as search results using their product. Reminds me of the early dot coms reporting on hits.

eg. Wynyard who release stories supposedly price sensitive, which if you do your research you realise are totally insignificant and/or just usual course of business.

Its revenue growth and potential margins that count for these little companies. Some are ok, but I hold to my line that not a single one of these crappy SAAS listings should be valued over 5x revenue (I make an exception for xero which I'd place at 10x - 15x revenues - well below current valuation and peb which has an interesting story and no revenues but again is horribly overvalued).

Was an early investor in Xero, all these other listings are horse **** or overvalued for what they are.

Vend is the only potential listing I see in the realm of being a good investment story.

Serko - what a piece of ****, the company has struggled for so long - now they get some smart cookies on the board who tell them, lose money to get revenue growth and there are suckers out there who will back you as they think every listing is a xero at the moment.

Great post!

[youngatheart]

Hey mate,

Last reported ARPU was around $7 /month not $20. GEO has aspirations to lift to $20 over time.

As I have previously explained, I believe there is some risk that ARPU has remained around $7 / month - it could have even declined - we just wont know until they report FY revenue and we can do the maths.

I have a high suspicion over anyone who reports user growth rather than revenues, when they could easily have reported sales. Especially when the gap from actual ARPU ($7) to what they want you to believe ARPU is ($20) is so large.

My suspicion is they are focussing on reporting user growth to the market because actual revenue growth will be quite pathetic given the resources they are expending to get it. eg MOA focussing on sales volume growth funded by decreasing margin even though the story they originally told was that they were a craft brewer whos strong margins would eb retained.

eg. also hate SLI reporting on meaningless metrics such as search results using their product. Reminds me of the early dot coms reporting on hits.

eg. Wynyard who release stories supposedly price sensitive, which if you do your research you realise are totally insignificant and/or just usual course of business.

Its revenue growth and potential margins that count for these little companies. Some are ok, but I hold to my line that not a single one of these crappy SAAS listings should be valued over 5x revenue (I make an exception for xero which I'd place at 10x - 15x revenues - well below current valuation and peb which has an interesting story and no revenues but again is horribly overvalued).

Was an early investor in Xero, all these other listings are horse **** or overvalued for what they are.

Vend is the only potential listing I see in the realm of being a good investment story.

Serko - what a piece of ****, the company has struggled for so long - now they get some smart cookies on the board who tell them, lose money to get revenue growth and there are suckers out there who will back you as they think every listing is a xero at the moment.

What's your thoughts on DIL? Surely with it's huge cash reserves that would be an exception to the 'crappy SAAS' model?

[Copper]

Saw this mornings report..Am no accountant but think revenue only enuf to pay the Directors fees..and morning tea...

[Balance]

Good lord Smokin Cubans, you were quite right about the grandfathered schemes!

$610k ann rev (year start) / 8006 customers / 12months = $6.34 per month per customer.

It gets worse when you put in FY13 figure of $488k ($5.07 per month per customer!)

$4.6M loss suggests cashflow for another year and a half before more is needed to fund growth.

Another company making 4 times less revenue per annum than my old workplace (boozeshop).

Pain is about to come...

What pain?

They have Mark Waldon, the wunderkid who turned NZX into one huge profit generating machine, as Chairman.

He has only started with GeoOP.












But again, maybe not - NZX is a monoploy and he sure plucked the feathers off that golden goose to feather his own nest.

[vorno]

What pain?

They have Mark Waldon, the wunderkid who turned NZX into one huge profit generating machine, as Chairman.

He has only started with GeoOP.

...Lets see how long he stays on-board.

[Balance]

Bal, where can I find me a golden goose? I swear I won't tell Weldon (or Handley, or Knight) where the location is!

You have to get alongside the powerbrokers first, Moosie - the ole' you scratch my back, I scratch yours harder and you scratch my ....

[Harvey Specter]

$610k ann rev (year start) / 8006 customers / 12months = $6.34 per month per customer.

6.34 compared to the list price of $19.95:
http://geoop.com/pricing/

No wonder they want to change their pricing scheme and get rid of the grandfathered customers.

I also makes you wonder if they have been offering discounts to all their new customers as the growth in customers should all be reflected at $20pm, which clearly it isn't!

[sommelier]

The true price per customer is the average number of customers of the last 12 months, which is 4631 if you chart and average the rate of increase over the 4 reported customer numbers. This comes out at $10.97mrpu, including grandfathered customers. This is a significant increase on the previous years $7mrpu.

[sommelier]

Reported dates in bold.

Mar-13	2300
Apr-13	2666.66
May-13	3033.32
Jun-13	3399.98
Jul-13	3766.64
Aug-13	4133.3
Sep-13	4500
Oct-13	4766.66
Nov-13	5033.32
Dec-13	5300
Jan-14	6202
Feb-14	7104
Mar-14	8006
Average	4631.683

[Harvey Specter]

The true price per customer is the average number of customers of the last 12 months, which is 4631 if you chart and average the rate of increase over the 4 reported customer numbers. This comes out at $10.97mrpu, including grandfathered customers. This is a significant increase on the previous years $7mrpu.

I think the way MOosie did it above is right.

He took the current annualised income (which I am sure they calculated by multiplying current customers by the rate each customer is being charged) and divided that by the current number of customers (then month-ified it). This would be more accurate that taking the annual income and then trying to divide it by some average number of customers.