GEO - GeoOP - Work Management Software

[Tomtom]

My most abiding impression is they went to market very early for one reason or another.

Shares trading at a 40% premium to IPO price - what makes you think they went to market too early? If the shares were $1.10 they'd represent a good return. Retail investors are the only ones who went to market too early. The cornerstones are surely happy holders playing a risky, long-term, high growth investment on a company that they valued at around $27m ($1.00) at this stage. How long would you have waited to take it to market? They only played on the positive tech sentiment at the time.

My view is that it is never be too early but there are differing levels of risk to be priced at different stages of a business.

I’m very hopefully they can get enough consumers to buy their product/service thing that they reach that sort of self-sustaining critical mass. However hope is too lower level of confidence for me to invest. This is no criticism of the business itself at all, you can be sure they are trying very hard to close in on that critical point where they get that exponential growth before they burn through the cash. As much as everything can be in place it appears to be so, if the product/service thing they are selling is intrinsically appealing enough to potential clients I’m sure everything else (staffing, costs etc.) will be managed at a level consistent with other similar businesses.

I’ll refrain from imply anything from the current share price given the frequency and volume of trades are so low.

[Copper]

My view is that it is never be too early but there are differing levels of risk to be priced at different stages of a business.

I’m very hopefully they can get enough consumers to buy their product/service thing that they reach that sort of self-sustaining critical mass. However hope is too lower level of confidence for me to invest. This is no criticism of the business itself at all, you can be sure they are trying very hard to close in on that critical point where they get that exponential growth before they burn through the cash. As much as everything can be in place it appears to be so, if the product/service thing they are selling is intrinsically appealing enough to potential clients I’m sure everything else (staffing, costs etc.) will be managed at a level consistent with other similar businesses.

I’ll refrain from imply anything from the current share price given the frequency and volume of trades are so low.

Good post IMHO...I think at 106. the problem will be to keep the price of the share at a level which does not let the IPO mob panic.This market is very fragile as we saw with Xero.Recently it has looked to me that when it was weak a buyer mysteriously appeared and pushed them up a little.That may or may not be the case but next week or so will be very telling...cheers

[Harvey Specter]

I must say, if it gets below $1 ($25m market cap), it will be on my radar and I will start looking at it for a good time to enter (after a bit more DD).

They appear to be a good product but the issue is the amount of competition they have, even among other Xero add-ins.

[Balance]

I must say, if it gets below $1 ($25m market cap), it will be on my radar and I will start looking at it for a good time to enter (after a bit more DD).

They appear to be a good product but the issue is the amount of competition they have, even among other Xero add-ins.

Company will need to raise more funds soon - cash is burning away.

Plenty of opportunity to pick up cheap shares in the future.

[Harvey Specter]

Company will need to raise more funds soon - cash is burning away.

Plenty of opportunity to pick up cheap shares in the future.

I didn't say I would enter, just look for a good time to enter. Capital raising might be the time if it drives the price lower.

[Harvey Specter]

Leannes running this like a xero spin-off when it needs to be kept lean and mean.

It has no revenue yet she dished out $100k of shares to everyone who joined up day one it seems. Sent much of the team to the America's Cup to drink wine for a couple of weeks.

Yes - their cost structure is a concern as is the fact hardly any customers appear to be paying the full price. But they should grow into their costs, especially if they start charging full rates to all customers.

Such a crowded space, a difficult customer to target (blue collar owners who aren't exactly au fait with getting the latest gadgets or paying for smart phones for their crew) and low returns for targeting them.

Crowded space yes but I think blue collar are increasing taking to this type of technology. Much better to use your smart phone as you go (or better get your staff to) than waste your weekend doing the paperwork when you could be fishing. The potential here is huge despite the crowded market.

Still hanging out for Vend to come to market - there is an investment story.

Vend sounds interesting but already valued at over $100m so will probably be valued at $500m by the time it makes it to market.

Timely is another interesting one, having just secured funding form Wiggs Punakaiki fund.

[barleeni]

If you overlay the shareprice chart from February to now, SLI, PEB, GEO, and XRO (but more volatile) all have tracked steadily down, loosing almost 50% of their values. There could well be others, but those are the only ones I really look at in the sector.

Does the fact that they all show similarities prove that its sector sentiment that's driving the SP down, and that in actual fact the companies themselves aren't really doing anything wrong?

And if Wynyards hasn't fallen as far as these other companies, does that indicate that they are doing a better job than these others?

Lastly..................... is there a bottom in sight anyone care to make predictions when would be a good in / top up time for some of these stocks?

(p.s. I have posted the same in the SLI thread, holding PEB and SLI from those mentioned)

[Harvey Specter]

If you thought we were in a bubble months ago you ain't seen nothing yet. If anything, this just resembles the pullback 1995-96 before the REAL run up...

Just to confirm what you are saying, you are predicting they will go much higher, before it pops?

[Harvey Specter]

Behind the paywall: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/geoops-...ns-md-p-158733

Summary :

From GEO (very XRO'esque): We dont care about the shareprice. We have all the money we need and are executing to plan. Points to global decline in SaaS companies.
From Lance: Points out their average revenue is $6 compared to the $20 listed on the website.
Refers to print edition for comments from Ben Kepes and more from Lance Wiggs.

Anyone old school and get the print edition and can summarize the print only article.

[Silverlight]

NTA is 29 cents. There's my target

Down 75% from its highs, the "moosie contrarian indicator™" says its going down another 75%, I think it might be time to take a small speculative position, time to buy!