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14-01-2015, 07:26 AM
#421
Originally Posted by Bilbo
So for those unfortunate holders, when do you think would be the best time to exit and at what price? I am assuming you think there will be a ramp up in the sp, and then a fall once the cap raise is announced? Sell side currently looking thin (as is the buy side), with only $30K on offer below $1.50, so there is potential for a buyer to move the price rapidly, but are interests associated with the company actually allowed to influence the sp in the lead up to a capital raising?
Anytime would be a good time to exit this dog! The ex-CEO was just basically put on the naughty step with all her performances shares being bought back for a single dollar. $1, for ALL of them!!!
Yes, I have seen this happen way too much on the ASX to be fooled by it. Cap raises are usually after a "feel good" announcement, but it appears GEO doesn't even have one of those to announce. Of course people associated with the company can't trade in shares, but that doesn't mean they can't give a nudge nudge wink to others with money and associated interests. Sometimes it is also the underwriter for the cap raise to get a better price for the company.
The VWAP average price will be based on a 5-10 day trading average, with a probable 5-15% discount to this price being set for the cap raise.
I'm not saying that's what's happening here, just saying it's a very possible hypothetical situation
Last edited by BFG; 14-01-2015 at 07:31 AM.
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22-01-2015, 09:58 AM
#422
What Do YOu Call That???
What an absolute abomination of reporting this is:
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/207007.pdf
No reports on client retention/churn, CAC, lifetime value of a customer, or whether the licenses were paid at normal prices or cut rate trial prices.
This company is in trouble even just looking at those paltry numbers. Stay WELL away.
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22-01-2015, 10:13 AM
#423
Originally Posted by BFG
What an absolute abomination of reporting this is:
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/207007.pdf
No reports on client retention/churn, CAC, lifetime value of a customer, or whether the licenses were paid at normal prices or cut rate trial prices.
This company is in trouble even just looking at those paltry numbers. Stay WELL away.
One dange is that these sort of announcements with lack-lustre information could create a self-fulfilling prophecy that would see customers avoiding the product just in case it falters.
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22-01-2015, 10:43 AM
#424
Originally Posted by Zaphod
One dange is that these sort of announcements with lack-lustre information could create a self-fulfilling prophecy that would see customers avoiding the product just in case it falters.
Good numbers but in order of importance we need:
ARPC
CAC
CHURN
Most interested in average customer info as they were significantly undercharging.
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22-01-2015, 11:07 AM
#425
Originally Posted by Schrodinger
Good numbers but in order of importance we need:
ARPC
CAC
CHURN
Most interested in average customer info as they were significantly undercharging.
Agree. Customers numbers are important but in isolation, mean very little. Xero is also guilty of these 'vanity' market disclosures in the past but at least they are improving to ensure some of these more important metrics can be determined.
I assume these guys will end up on the NXT so hopefully shareholders will demand that all these metrics are included in the quarterly disclosures.
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22-01-2015, 11:32 AM
#426
Originally Posted by Harvey Specter
Agree. Customers numbers are important but in isolation, mean very little. Xero is also guilty of these 'vanity' market disclosures in the past but at least they are improving to ensure some of these more important metrics can be determined.
I assume these guys will end up on the NXT so hopefully shareholders will demand that all these metrics are included in the quarterly disclosures.
That's the key point, shareholders must demand the reporting, because the market participants disclosure and reporting requirements don't.
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22-01-2015, 11:56 AM
#427
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
That's the key point, shareholders must demand the reporting, because the market participants disclosure and reporting requirements don't.
Exactly. If anything disclosure requirements will be LESS than what they are now for the NZAX!!!
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22-01-2015, 12:02 PM
#428
Originally Posted by BFG
Exactly. If anything disclosure requirements will be LESS than what they are now for the NZAX!!!
I think they mentioned on the NXT there is a mandatory qtrly update that has the things that we mentioned above. Not sure how this is enforced or what exactly they are supposed to disclose.
Increasing customer numbers and getting a good price for the product are what I would like to know as this will influence the ARR. Overall happy with the growth but not if they are giving the product away.
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22-01-2015, 01:35 PM
#429
Originally Posted by Schrodinger
I think they mentioned on the NXT there is a mandatory qtrly update that has the things that we mentioned above. Not sure how this is enforced or what exactly they are supposed to disclose.
Increasing customer numbers and getting a good price for the product are what I would like to know as this will influence the ARR. Overall happy with the growth but not if they are giving the product away.
Correct. What are the relevant metrics needs to decided by the company but I customers numbers alone wont cut it. There will me market research undertaken (paid for by the NZX) so I would expect that company so be explicit on what metrics they see as important for them to do their job.
Time will tell whether the NXT delivers - the NZAX definitely hasn't.
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24-01-2015, 10:22 AM
#430
Originally Posted by Schrodinger
Good numbers but in order of importance we need:
ARPC
CAC
CHURN
Most interested in average customer info as they were significantly undercharging.
Yes, agreed. The total number of customers is underwhelming though, but if they can keep of this growth and the APRC, CAC etc. look good with a low churn rate, that might help to offset the cash burn rate.
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