GEO - GeoOP - Work Management Software

[hardt]

Ya poor bugger! I sympathise I bought more than I should have at $2.80 so you are not alone!

I cant bear to sell mine for next to nothing either. I still live in hope the share price might just might start to creep up again although that approach didnt work so well for me with my Wynyard shares where I literally lost both my arms and my legs but ya never know!

Not sure why people love NZ SaaS stocks so much, hoping to get in on the next XRO maybe?

There were plenty of other companies offering a better service than GeoOp at the time, surely people did their own research into it... right?

[Baa_Baa]

Not sure why people love NZ SaaS stocks so much, hoping to get in on the next XRO maybe?

There were plenty of other companies offering a better service than GeoOp at the time, surely people did their own research into it... right?

It's simple with hindsight though isn't it? There's a heap of people who have lost a truckload on XRO buying above $20 or so where it has finally crawled back to now, after years of decline and so far a relatively modest recovery.

I think you're probably right though, that a few years ago there was a real hype in the NZX/AX with pre-profit tech listings, but that's all pretty much gone now with only a small few that have delivered sustained SP growth (like an Amazon does for example, that confounds logical or traditional investor psychology). XRO isn't one of them. PPH has, but even that has gone sideways since the consolidation, DIL did OK eventually after giving investors the sh1ts dropping to 0.05(!), not sure if there are any others. SLI no. WYN dead. PLX stagnant yawn. GEO fecked. TTK spruiked on buyout potential otherwise boring. And on and on.

I think my point, which is not really advice but more a personal reflection on 'investing' in startups, high-growth, and pre-profits is that it requires ACTIVE management (that means being right on top of your money at all times):

- enter with as much conviction and knowledge as possible,
- never enter blind or on someone else recommendation,
- extensively research the promoters, executive, management, products and customers, look for prior successes,
- detach completely from any emotion or confirmation bias (easy to say) as nothing the company does is as relevant as how the market values it,
- keep a very close eye on what the market actually does, the market is key,
- monitor sentiment here and elsewhere, but don't buy into it,
- invest very modest sums as a % of portfolio,
- run up with the gains and progressively take profits to a freehold position,

if it's working out, great, but even then ...

- know what you're looking for to get out, and if it happens get out (refer stop losses)
- cut losses quickly (refer stop losses).
- put stop losses on any buy-in, automate your unemotional exit

Charts help a lot because none of these companies will have any solid combination of fundamentals that traditional investors look for when deciding to invest.

[couta1]

Good post Baa Baa, and very true re Xro. I bought in at $42 and then it dropped back into the low teens, had to do a balsy chuck the kitchen sink at it to obtain an average price of $22 and escape with only the smell of smoke on my clothes. I wonder how many as still sitting on large losses, I'd say many.

[RupertBear]

It's simple with hindsight though isn't it? There's a heap of people who have lost a truckload on XRO buying above $20 or so where it has finally crawled back to now, after years of decline and so far a relatively modest recovery.

I think you're probably right though, that a few years ago there was a real hype in the NZX/AX with pre-profit tech listings, but that's all pretty much gone now with only a small few that have delivered sustained SP growth (like an Amazon does for example, that confounds logical or traditional investor psychology). XRO isn't one of them. PPH has, but even that has gone sideways since the consolidation, DIL did OK eventually after giving investors the sh1ts dropping to 0.05(!), not sure if there are any others. SLI no. WYN dead. PLX stagnant yawn. GEO fecked. TTK spruiked on buyout potential otherwise boring. And on and on.

I think my point, which is not really advice but more a personal reflection on 'investing' in startups, high-growth, and pre-profits is that it requires ACTIVE management (that means being right on top of your money at all times):

- enter with as much conviction and knowledge as possible,
- never enter blind or on someone else recommendation,
- extensively research the promoters, executive, management, products and customers, look for prior successes,
- detach completely from any emotion or confirmation bias (easy to say) as nothing the company does is as relevant as how the market values it,
- keep a very close eye on what the market actually does, the market is key,
- monitor sentiment here and elsewhere, but don't buy into it,
- invest very modest sums as a % of portfolio,
- run up with the gains and progressively take profits to a freehold position,

if it's working out, great, but even then ...

- know what you're looking for to get out, and if it happens get out (refer stop losses)
- cut losses quickly (refer stop losses).
- put stop losses on any buy-in, automate your unemotional exit

Charts help a lot because none of these companies will have any solid combination of fundamentals that traditional investors look for when deciding to invest.

Helpful post thank you

[RupertBear]

QUOTE Couta "My Dog kennel once contained the following mutts,Snakk/SLI/IQE/TTK/PEB/WYN, didn't own GeoOP but nethertheless an impressive list of mutts every pound would love to have."

Good post Baa Baa, and very true re Xro. I bought in at $42 and then it dropped back into the low teens, had to do a balsy chuck the kitchen sink at it to obtain an average price of $22 and escape with only the smell of smoke on my clothes. I wonder how many as still sitting on large losses, I'd say many.

Geepers you live on the edge Couta! Ya must have ***** of steel!

[Ggcc]

All I know is in the tech sector, most of the investment is swallowed up in overpaid management and staff. They are only worth their money if the company makes that a profit, or profit is in sight. I had a friend who worked in analytics and was disgusted the company did not offer a free gym membership....? Sounds like sour grapes and probably is lol. I won't enter into any start ups again. Also I am still a happy individual who lost money on Wyn, luckily I made money on other great companies like summerset, infratil and heartland. Hope all is not lost for the tech sector completely

[Baa_Baa]

Good post Baa Baa, and very true re Xro. I bought in at $42 and then it dropped back into the low teens, had to do a balsy chuck the kitchen sink at it to obtain an average price of $22 and escape with only the smell of smoke on my clothes. I wonder how many as still sitting on large losses, I'd say many.

Thanks Couta, it's good to share our learnings even though we all have to find our own strategy and methods that we can live with and work for us. I watched (read) your moves with XRO and I'd have to say in all honesty that I cringed, you had way bigger balls than anyone else, making the moves you did, you read the chart and the tea leaves and when it shAt itself to $13 bucks and recovered, you made your moves.

Great recovery strategy, I'm glad for you it worked out, a small loss is better that a big loss or total loss. Tough lessons though eh? For my part I couldn't pull the buy trigger even though tempted at $13, I thought $11, yeah I'm in, but it never got there. It's still my biggest ever upside win though, but that was from early days and an exit which now seems very conservative. I can't see myself buying a $20 share that doesn't make a profit and hasn't cracked the all important USA market, but history will eventually say I'm either a woosey or prescient. I prefer more certainty nowadays.

I agree though, I know quite a few folks who are accidental millionaires from buying XRO in the early days, and sadly others who are nursing massive losses and will be for however long it takes to get to $30-$45 or higher. They all still hold, none are 'active' investors. None have any of the skills we see discussed here every day. They just buy someone else recommendations and despite watching their fortunes every day, they don't do anything about it. They don't know what to look for and wouldn't know what to do anyway. Even the big winners seem strangely happy enough to have lost millions of unrealised gains on the promise that one day it'll all come back. Weird. Maybe they're right but they have no idea about opportunity cost.

But back to GEO, this is a spectacular market dog. It illustrates extremely well that the actual performance of the company whether good, average or bad, has little or no correlation to how the market actually values it. For most investors, they could take their eye off the company completely and just monitor the market reactions and decide how to manage their investment. Nevertheless if they knew how to do that, then they would have been out of this mess a long time ago.

[mushroom]

I hear you Ggcc.

GeoOp has spent millions of our money on high salaries for their own benefit. Flash office space and a huge amount on a useless CEO.

They have had no innovation that I can see, no point of difference. If it will take to kill them off is one or two of the competition giving away free migration and accounts for 3 or 6 months.

It's now being used as an examaple of how not to do a startup and IPO in a few universities I have heard.

Fricken joke.

[mushroom]

One thing that gets me is that I want to invest to get a dividend not necessarily from buy sell. It seems most companies are not focused on profitability at all.

Geoop only real news is who or how any keeping the lights on, not strategy, growth or profitability. It's a joke. Their results look like they are flat lining with a high churn.

When walking past a cinema a few years ago one of my friends pointed to the train wreck movie poster. He said does that look like The CEO of your GeoOP investment.

My only reply was, yup. And I paid for the champers.

[Bilbo]

My Dog kennel once contained the following mutts,Snakk/SLI/IQE/TTK/PEB/WYN, didn't own GeoOP but nethertheless an impressive list of mutts every pound would love to have.

Good list there although I disagree with SLI being called a mutt. Yes the sp performance has been terrible, but it is not in the same breed as the others. It has real revenues and a proven product. SLI Market cap is currently $22.4m on revenue of $31m whereas GEO has market cap of $12.7m on revenue of $2m. SLI have not needed continual capital raising since IPO and have a long 15+ year history as a company. When you compare that to GEO it makes the current GEO sp seem crazy. How could it ever have been valued at $2.50+ per share?