2023 Returns

[SailorRob]

Returns for the calendar year 2023 across all financial assets. You can leave out the family home but that's it.

So you can't have 100k with 50k in a term deposit and 50k in stocks and then post about your stocks returns, you have to count the lot.

Value at the beginning of the year vs the end. If you have added significant money or withdrawn then this needs to be factored in by the 'time weighted' calculation (not easy). As the USD NZD was practically a wash it shouldn't matter much in calculations.

I returned just over 20%, this is not including my Sberbank position which was up 43% in USD (as I can't sell it). Quite a significant underperformance but that's in the context of having outperformed by over 30% last year.

The biggest factor by far however is that in returning 20% vs the market 24/25% my portfolio trades at less than 10 x earnings vs the market at North of 25 I believe. Thus returns have been driven by multiple expansion rather than EPS performance. This point is absolutely critical to understand going forward.

[thegreatestben]

Honestly would be too difficult, but I know it hasn’t been a good year. Mostly flat but added ~75k.

2 year anniversary for our new build rental investments in June 24. Hoping to hold so I can give SR some real life comparison data at year 10

Edit* Sharesight tells me I managed 2.8% for the year on my portfolio.

[SailorRob]

Honestly would be too difficult, but I know it hasn’t been a good year. Mostly flat but added ~75k.

2 year anniversary for our new build rental investments in June 24. Hoping to hold so I can give SR some real life comparison data at year 10

Edit* Sharesight tells me I managed 2.8% for the year on my portfolio.

Cheers for the contribution.

Well unless multiples paid to rent income less all expenses compound out from here (historically highest in recorded history) all you'll get is the cash return less all expenses. Be pretty difficult to compound out more than GDP plus inflation and could be less. Inflation adjusted they could well be worth significantly less in 10 years - unless you pump in capital to improve them and to increase rent far faster than GDP. No different to any other business. Leverage could complicate matters somewhat.

[Bobdn]

13 per cent, net of tax and fees.

[SailorRob]

13 per cent, net of tax and fees.

Cheers,

Sorry I should have stipulated mine are Gross returns.

[Bobdn]

My PIR is currently the lowest rate - 10.5 per cent thanks to that crushing bear market in 2022. So net or gross doesn't make much difference to me. Will go back up next year I guess.

[audiav]

8% net approx, sold some investments near end of year to pay down floating rate mortgage which has also been running about 8%. Almost done.

[Toddy]

I can't compete with you SailorRob. But I can learn off you and get better.

Over all of my asset classes the honest return would struggle to be 5 percent.

The share portfolio was 14 percent.

[Ferg]

Interesting thread.....good to know I'm not the only one who does this annually. For the sake of participating in this thread +5% for me across everything....not one of my better years, but there is something else I want to explore.

Per the Black Monday thread IIRC SailorRob you mentioned that equities (i.e. S&P500) outperform property over a long enough time period or words to that effect. I then posted a link to the S&P500 returns and an inflation calculator. I recall having this debate with my father eons ago re shares vs property and I took your position then. But then life and marriage got in the way and one just 'had' to buy a house. I ran my numbers from mid 1997 to mid 2023 (which is a long enough timespan for such a measurement) on my family home transactions. Nominal return was +8% CAGR, after deducting ownership opex and adjusting for 2 x equity injections. This reduces to +5.6% CAGR when adjusted for NZ inflation.

IMO there is NO WAY I could have achieved this level of return on equities over that timeframe and the S&P calculator confirms it. It helped being mortgage free since 2006 and I was lucky enough to ride a couple of waves despite the awful first 5-6 years for NZ property. No interest or rent payments since 2006 has been liberating and likely destroys the own vs rent argument from a weekly cashflow viewpoint. I'm sure others have had a similar experience and whilst my father did not articulate well the 'why' to buy eons ago....I can see why now. Counterpoint: this is simply my anecdote and it may not be representative of broader market data. Something I have focussed on since 2000 was "profits are in the buying"...the selling confirms/crystallises your earlier decision. I'm no property guru; I was lucky.

[SailorRob]

I can't compete with you SailorRob. But I can learn off you and get better.

Over all of my asset classes the honest return would struggle to be 5 percent.

The share portfolio was 14 percent.

Cheers but I wouldn't pay much attention to a couple of years! Really the minimum time frame is 5 years to have any actual idea how you're going with equity investments, preferably 10.