Quote Originally Posted by Rossimarnz View Post
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Anyone named Jim Hickey care to comment?
Not Jim Hickey, but as I near retirement age I have returned to University part time, and this is my field of research. Just something that is totally different to electricity trading, yet is still mildly related.

Yes, you have it right. An El Nino usually means more westerly winds, and in turn that usually means wetter in the west and drier in the east. It doesn't always happen that way though, and there have been some El Niños that have presented very dry conditions all over. I believe I have found the reason for that and have a paper being published later this year that may go someway to explaining that.

My call is that this summer is likely to be very wet in Meridian's catchments early on, but will swing to dry sometime in February.