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  1. #2181
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    Curious to see what it will do to the SP or if this is built in already? Certainly not unexpected.

  2. #2182
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    Jeez down to 770 something

    Didn’t seem that long it nearly got to 10 bucks.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.” - Benjamin Graham

  3. #2183
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeez down to 770 something

    Didn’t seem that long it nearly got to 10 bucks.
    I sold part of my holding at $9.55 - thought I was clever for a while - now think I should have sold more. But what would be the buy-back-in price? Who knows in this crazy market at present? Normal valuations just don't make sense any more.

  4. #2184
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    “I’m personally very energised to start 2021 on these terms" says Neal Barclay Chief Executive.

    very droll.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  5. #2185
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    Whos getting shafted here? Grrrh
    Pull the plug and tell them to clean up their mess
    "Meridian’s comments about the profitability of the smelter – and the July timing of the pricing element of its offer –may raise questions over whether and why the Government might still be prepared to offer the smelter a separate discount on the transmission charges it pays to Transpower.

    Energy Minister Megan Woods said last week that the Government was independently still in talks with Rio Tinto about those charges – and also about the smelter’s responsibilities to clean-up the smelter site when it closes.?
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123...price-beatdown

  6. #2186
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    perhaps because the market doesnt really know what to value the gens at. Interesting to see what the SNOP thinks about this one. Would never have touched it at 10 and yes a total sell. It wont revalue till interest rates go up and the div is back to where the market understands value. But really what value is green energy if climate change is as bad or worse than we realise. These stocks could be the next GOLD or bit coin X n.

  7. #2187
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Whos getting shafted here? Grrrh
    Pull the plug and tell them to clean up their mess
    "Meridian’s comments about the profitability of the smelter – and the July timing of the pricing element of its offer –may raise questions over whether and why the Government might still be prepared to offer the smelter a separate discount on the transmission charges it pays to Transpower....
    What the smelter are asking for isn't discount, but merely a fair transmission cost. Tiwai pay much more than any other user in NZ on a MW per km basis, a total of 7% of the entire county's transmission costs, yet there are only 640 km (4 circuits, each 160 km) in length compared to the more than 12,000 km of Transpower's transmission lines in NZ .

    In fact a complete new set of transmission lines from Manapouri to Tiwai could be built for what Tiwai pays in just over 5 years transmission costs.

    Transpower and the EA are looking at a new TPM (Transmission Pricing Methodology) that would reduce the cost to Tiwai to bring them into line with what the rest of the country pays.
    Last edited by Jantar; 19-01-2021 at 06:27 PM.

  8. #2188
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    Even if this reached close to $10 again, well beyond what it 'should' be I'm not sure what one would spend the windfall on unless one needed to buy something fancy with the cash. I'm not having an easy time of spotting where else I would invest the money where I am not already overweight (e.g. OCA) so as far as I'm concerned its hold for a long time yet. its still $2 higher than it was even a year ago.

  9. #2189
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    yeh definitely coming back to fair value now with a PE of 103


    /sarcasm.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #2190
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    You would think MEL was an tech company with amazing growth ahead looking at that PE ratio... until you wake up and realize its a boring gentailer.

  11. #2191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jantar View Post
    What the smelter are asking for isn't discount, but merely a fair transmission cost. Tiwai pay much more than any other user in NZ on a MW per km basis, a total of 7% of the entire county's transmission costs, yet they are only 640 km (4 circuits, each 160 km) in length compared to the more than 12,000 km of Transpower's transmission lines in NZ .

    In fact a complete new set of transmission lines from Manapouri to Tiwai could be built for what Tiwai pays in just over 5 years transmission costs.

    Transpower and the EA are looking at a new TPM (Transmission Pricing Methodology) that would reduce the cost to Tiwai to bring them into line with what the rest of the country pays.
    But but but was it $0.05 /kw?
    Surely they can find some other industry to pay more than this?
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119...ranspower-bill

  12. #2192
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    But but but was it $0.05 /kw?
    Surely they can find some other industry to pay more than this?
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119...ranspower-bill
    Now's the time to work on that replacement industry.
    One idea was datacentres with a cable from south to Aus - but they take time to get built - time they now have.
    Build the industries and next time the smelter comes calling tell them the new price or bu***r off.

  13. #2193
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    But but but was it $0.05 /kw?
    Surely they can find some other industry to pay more than this?
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119...ranspower-bill
    Yes, the energy price was $0.051 per kWh. It is the transmission price you mentioned that I replied to. Most people fail to understand that the energy price and the transmission price are charged separately for large industries.

  14. #2194
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    yeh definitely coming back to fair value now with a PE of 103


    /sarcasm.
    Quote Originally Posted by Norwest View Post
    You would think MEL was an tech company with amazing growth ahead looking at that PE ratio... until you wake up and realize its a boring gentailer.
    Measuring MEL's PE Ratio and comparing it to "average" all market PE Ratios is not very meaningful. MEL has high non cash costs such as depreciation which makes the PE Ratio much higher than the "norm".
    It's best to value MEL by other metrics or if you must use PE Ratio and try to make it meaningful..follow MEL's PE history so to compare then to now and every year in between to see the changes in its valuation.. then once you have that historic PE data, allowances have to be made as interest rates are now considered to be the primary driver for PE Ratios and affects the valuation.. I didn't say it was easy.

    Is it over valued ?..I'm too busy to crunch the numbers.
    Disc: have no MEL
    Last edited by Hoop; 19-01-2021 at 01:28 PM.

  15. #2195
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    Hoop's busy so I puled some numbers from Morningstar database

    the 2021 NPAT is a forecast.

    Need to bear in mind that the NPAT/EPS used by NZX includes abnormals and normalised EPS was a bit higher (lower PE)

    Interesting forecasts seems to have profits declining over the next few years.... I know very little about this sector so can't comment if right

    However the numbers - based on Hoops comments PE is still probably a bit high
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    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.” - Benjamin Graham

  16. #2196
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    Back to where things were just before Xmas! Relentless selling today - pull up a 15min chart and look how it has just be steadily down with zero breather. Still expecting a bounce that can be played before the end of the day.

  17. #2197
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    Trading halt today and nobody (media) or otherwise is talking about it...

    Edit* sharesies has now removed the trading halt. Weird...
    Last edited by 101nick101; Yesterday at 08:45 AM.

  18. #2198
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    Quote Originally Posted by 101nick101 View Post
    Trading halt today and nobody (media) or otherwise is talking about it...

    Edit* sharesies has now removed the trading halt. Weird...
    Is there a market notice advising this?

  19. #2199
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    Just the monthly operating report, onwards and upwards

  20. #2200
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    i think the buzz in power company stocks is over. exited at near the top will wait for the eventual re-entry much lower.
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

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