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14-06-2019, 06:04 PM
#1841
Originally Posted by Onion
It hasn't quite got there yet but...
$4.50 is a nice round 3 times the initial cost of the shares.
Yes...the tax payer really missed out there. Nice work Sir John et al.
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14-06-2019, 06:08 PM
#1842
Interesting to note the wholesale average price MEL and charging customers up 20% from last year must be helping the bottom line - expect a fantastic full year result ....
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18-06-2019, 09:30 AM
#1843
$5 stock
Originally Posted by RTM
Yes...the tax payer really missed out there. Nice work Sir John et al.
Everyone knew it was a $5 stock (maybe much more actually). Have you stood on those gigantic dams --one after another--calculate the cost of building them today? (although the greenies would rule it out) so that makes them priceless!! Have you heard the greenies scream re burning coal and gas for electricity. Have you seen the growth of anything electric. Have you flown over our cities at night?
Yep we all knew it was a $5 stock but --Hey --Governments have to win votes--it's the biggest weakness of Democracy so this went out at $1 down and 50 cents later, the Rowling scheme went out the door, Social Security special tax for old age pensions went out the door, we still try to run a military when it should have gone decades ago --why --It wins votes!! Go Meridian I say .
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18-06-2019, 10:08 PM
#1844
Originally Posted by Onion
It hasn't quite got there yet but...
$4.50 is a nice round 3 times the initial cost of the shares.
It got there!
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19-06-2019, 09:06 AM
#1845
Originally Posted by boysy
Interesting to note the wholesale average price MEL and charging customers up 20% from last year must be helping the bottom line - expect a fantastic full year result ....
One weather event winter does not a cash cow make. If the wholesale price trend flips, then next years result could be very different. The incremental value of MEL shares over FY2019 should be priced on what one year special dividend shareholders might expect.
Originally Posted by warren
Everyone knew it was a $5 stock (maybe much more actually). Have you stood on those gigantic dams --one after another--calculate the cost of building them today? (although the greenies would rule it out) so that makes them priceless!! Have you heard the greenies scream re burning coal and gas for electricity. Have you seen the growth of anything electric. Have you flown over our cities at night?
Yep we all knew it was a $5 stock. <snip politics> Go Meridian I say .
The problem with this kind of logic Warren, is that if the MEL share price shot up to $100 you would still be buying. Because there is no limit to how valuable you consider those hydro dam assets. There isn't the significant demand increase in electricity that you think is there -yet. Electric vehicles are still a sideshow, with the growth of double cab fossil fuelled utes dwarfing any growth in the electric car market. The winding down of power intensive industry in NZ more than accounts for any growth in domestic electricity consumption.
I agree that dams of the scale that Meridian own are unlikely to be built again. I say that not only because the rise of the green movement have increased the value of rivers in their natural state. But also because the best sites have already been developed.
The cap on the value of these dams will be determined by the cost to build alternative generation and storage. Despite recent advances in battery technology, it is very difficult to argue that the most cost effective 'industrial scale battery' today is a lake. But lakes are a finite resource, and other batteries are getting better and cheaper. Once the price of controlling a lake exceeds the price of alternative battery technology, then usage rights of lakes and their associated downstream turbines and dams will cease to increase in value. At that price point, the likes of MEL will be priced like a true utility again. And that means in 2019 dollars, taking today's share price and dividing it by a factor of two. Talking to a respected broker who is managing a share portfolio for an aged relative, he is advising his clients to reduce their MEL holding. He sees MEL as the most overvalued company in an overvalued sector, but is not advising clients to sell out completely.
Let's end on a point of agreement though. At some point I agree MEL will be worth $5 per share. But the year in which that happens will probably start with the digits 21.. !
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 19-06-2019 at 09:27 AM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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19-06-2019, 10:52 AM
#1846
Hello Snoopy.
What an excellent and interesting report. I actually agree with all you say. What I am hinting at is the appalling decision to sell this magnificent share for $1 down and fifty later!!!!! There was never ANY doubt to me that is was a dead cert $5 dollar share and everything about it has proved me right so far!
Assets, green sustainable operations, good corrupt free management, dividends , product demand.
No I don't envisage $100 but $10 ------- yes for sure .
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20-06-2019, 10:38 AM
#1847
on fire 4.74 might be 5 by next week lol
one step ahead of the herd
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20-06-2019, 10:44 AM
#1848
maybe by tomorrow jumped another 10c as i was typing lol
one step ahead of the herd
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20-06-2019, 10:44 AM
#1849
Originally Posted by bull....
on fire 4.74 might be 5 by next week lol
Could well by end of this week, touched high of $4.85 and currently $4.79.
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20-06-2019, 11:41 AM
#1850
Wild ride up 5% at some stage just goes to show how illiquid this 11b co can be with a couple of hundred $ of value moving the MC by $500m ....
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