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  1. #1051
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harvey Specter View Post
    I thought they had all dropped their price. Agree don't expect anymore than 8c going forward.

    For new builds definitely design for solar hot water, retro PV and passive solar heating. Basic design shouldn't increase the build cost at all.
    Yes they dropped their price for excess sold back to the grid last year, SolarCity responded by offering panels that will offset consumption only. People may have bought the systems expecting to offset their consumption long term and if so they will get a shock when the gentailers decide to stop paying this second stage of subsidy, which they should do and the sooner the better in my view.
    Subsidies on non-economic systems are a crime against the consumer who has to pay more than they should.
    To clarify, the grid is built for peak demand and until you disconnect completely you are still incurring costs for the lines companies, who will be sizing their gear to cover your happily oblivious selves during your peak demand acooking your dinner after the sun goes down in winter.
    It's obvious to me but of course not so I guess for people who just throw the switch and see the lights go on. Which is as it should be.
    Last edited by PSE; 22-04-2015 at 06:03 AM.

  2. #1052
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    Quote Originally Posted by PSE View Post
    Subsidies on non-economic systems are a crime against the consumer who has to pay more than they should.
    Agree.

    The retailers are subsidising them by paying to high a buy back rate.
    The lines companys are (reluctantly) subsidising them as there consumption is lower but they are still added to peak demand which lines companies have to build for. Not only that they have to over invest in the network as solar feed in stuffs up the network harmonics which they have to correct. It is for this reason some places restrict solar panels (Florida has banned solar feed in and Hawaii requires line company approval which they are reluctant to give).

    EDIT: this is the story re Hawaii blocking solar grid feed: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/04/19...e-changes.html
    Last edited by Harvey Specter; 22-04-2015 at 10:11 AM.

  3. #1053
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    The Alu elephant in the room, July the 31st (notification date) is suddenly looming close. Will be very int to see what happens s/p wise with this uncertainty.

  4. #1054
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harvey Specter View Post
    Agree.

    The retailers are subsidising them by paying to high a buy back rate.
    The lines companys are (reluctantly) subsidising them as there consumption is lower but they are still added to peak demand which lines companies have to build for. Not only that they have to over invest in the network as solar feed in stuffs up the network harmonics which they have to correct. It is for this reason some places restrict solar panels (Florida has banned solar feed in and Hawaii requires line company approval which they are reluctant to give).

    EDIT: this is the story re Hawaii blocking solar grid feed: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/04/19...e-changes.html
    Relax. There is no retailer subsidisation going on with PV solar. $0.08/kWhr is the average Otahuhu wholesale rate. Yes, the lines company is able to price gouge a teeny-tiny fraction less, which is a good situation. The fierce battle to "protect" the consumer from electricity cost breakdown illustrates how much profit is at stake. All grid tied inverters must conform to standards specified by the lines companies. If their specification is inadequate and causes problems with their existing network infrastructure, that is not the fault or responsibility of the consumer/installer. All grid tied distributed generation in NZ requires both lines company and retailer approval before authority to connect is granted.

    Consumer ROI for distributed generation PV solar is way below what generators/retailers/lines companies are acheiving with their investments. And the real kicker is that if the cost of electricity to the domestic consumer was more realistically priced, it would make PV solar ROI even less and supress installation. The companies (lines in particular) involved are actually causing the movement to distributed generation because their pricing is crazy. This is well illustrated by most other countries needing to provide true (installation-type) subsidies to make PV solar worthwhile.

    I am not a greeny, I hold shares in most power companies, I buy all my power from one of them, and do not have any distributed generation (PV solar or other) capability.

  5. #1055
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    Quote Originally Posted by xafalcon View Post
    Relax. There is no retailer subsidisation going on with PV solar. $0.08/kWhr is the average Otahuhu wholesale rate.
    Average, or daytime average. Definitely more realistic than the 25c previously paid by one, though I think some still give good rates for the first few kw per day.

    Yes, the lines company is able to price gouge a teeny-tiny fraction less, which is a good situation.
    Lines companies make a regulated return so if the solar owner isn't paying their fair share for the peak demand infrastructure, then someone else is. The lines company is ambivalent.

    All grid tied inverters must conform to standards specified by the lines companies. If their specification is inadequate and causes problems with their existing network infrastructure, that is not the fault or responsibility of the consumer/installer. All grid tied distributed generation in NZ requires both lines company and retailer approval before authority to connect is granted.
    Yes they are approved but how long ago was that. It isn't an issue now when you have one solar user per suburb but if everyone on the street has solar, you will get network issues on a sunny day with intermittent cloud as as feed in power spiked and plummets. Getting new standards through the EA is also an issue, especially since the good inverters cost a lot more.

  6. #1056
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    The retailers are on to a good thing in the short term, buy back at 8c/Kwhr sell to next door neighbour at 28c/Kwhr but long term destroys them. the trouble is that with solar and batteries the peak demand reduces with customers effectively becoming generators. As you know generators do not pay for any transmission charges , it is all loaded onto the other customesr, if that continues going up the customers will leave the grids. Years ago there was a policy in Transpower called the Glide path which forsaw this situation but it was abandoned and transpower know has a grid heavily overbuilt and over capitilised. So the shareholders throughout the total electricity industry will have to take Substantial writedowns on their assets in the future when batteries arrive.

  7. #1057
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harvey Specter View Post
    Average, or daytime average. Definitely more realistic than the 25c previously paid by one, though I think some still give good rates for the first few kw per day.

    Lines companies make a regulated return so if the solar owner isn't paying their fair share for the peak demand infrastructure, then someone else is. The lines company is ambivalent.

    Yes they are approved but how long ago was that. It isn't an issue now when you have one solar user per suburb but if everyone on the street has solar, you will get network issues on a sunny day with intermittent cloud as as feed in power spiked and plummets. Getting new standards through the EA is also an issue, especially since the good inverters cost a lot more.
    Sorry, I don't know how to multi-quote you

    In the order you raised them

    - eye-ball yearly average of the past 12 month. Heywoods and Benmore similar. The price is reasonable for both parties. There are zero "bonus rate" kWhrs with TrustPower or Meridian (I did not seek info from any others, but would doubt any do)

    - fair share is a great term to use for lines charges. Everybody is paying way more than their fair share. Just because something is regulated does not make it "fair". With such low ROI for distributed generation, nobody in their right mind would currently build a system that feeds anything meaningful back into the grid. All "years to repay" are based on offsetting demand at retail prices ($0.28/kWhr), not feeding back into the grid for $0.08/kWhr. Hence the "economic analysis based" PV solar generator does pay their fair share of lines charges because they are almost always using electricity from the grid. The problem is with associating lines/network charges with a unit of electricity. It should be a fixed charge per point of supply, not a variable charge, unless time of use is also included for everyone in NZ. This is not the fault of the distributed generator

    - electricity users pay a lines charge for the network infrastructure, which funds the changing needs of the network - expansion, new technology, connecting new places of generation etc. Distributed generation is just another change that needs to be factored in. The more distributed generation PV solar there is, the more the output is averaged, exactly like commercial wind generation, but on a much smaller and less significant scale.

    The inescapable fact is that the combined companies that supply especially domestic users with electricity are charging way too much, and the market (the consumer) is reacting with cheaper alternatives. This will accelerate until the pricing issue is resolved, or a tipping point is reached with distributed generation storage capacity and cost (batteries).

    The fact this PV solar uptake is happening in NZ without subsidies, where other countries need to heavily subsidise to get penetration, is clear evidence of a pricing problem in NZ

  8. #1058
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    Quote Originally Posted by xafalcon View Post
    Sorry, I don't know how to multi-quote you

    In the order you raised them

    - eye-ball yearly average of the past 12 month. Heywoods and Benmore similar. The price is reasonable for both parties. There are zero "bonus rate" kWhrs with TrustPower or Meridian (I did not seek info from any others, but would doubt any do)

    - fair share is a great term to use for lines charges. Everybody is paying way more than their fair share. Just because something is regulated does not make it "fair". With such low ROI for distributed generation, nobody in their right mind would currently build a system that feeds anything meaningful back into the grid. All "years to repay" are based on offsetting demand at retail prices ($0.28/kWhr), not feeding back into the grid for $0.08/kWhr. Hence the "economic analysis based" PV solar generator does pay their fair share of lines charges because they are almost always using electricity from the grid. The problem is with associating lines/network charges with a unit of electricity. It should be a fixed charge per point of supply, not a variable charge, unless time of use is also included for everyone in NZ. This is not the fault of the distributed generator

    - electricity users pay a lines charge for the network infrastructure, which funds the changing needs of the network - expansion, new technology, connecting new places of generation etc. Distributed generation is just another change that needs to be factored in. The more distributed generation PV solar there is, the more the output is averaged, exactly like commercial wind generation, but on a much smaller and less significant scale.

    The inescapable fact is that the combined companies that supply especially domestic users with electricity are charging way too much, and the market (the consumer) is reacting with cheaper alternatives. This will accelerate until the pricing issue is resolved, or a tipping point is reached with distributed generation storage capacity and cost (batteries).

    The fact this PV solar uptake is happening in NZ without subsidies, where other countries need to heavily subsidise to get penetration, is clear evidence of a pricing problem in NZ
    Yep , so the smelter closing would be a benefit to all , a cut in the price we all pay for domestic power ...It might even increase demand at the lower price so , overall there would be no loss to Meridian .

  9. #1059
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    You are completely correct

  10. #1060
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Yep , so the smelter closing would be a benefit to all , a cut in the price we all pay for domestic power ...It might even increase demand at the lower price so , overall there would be no loss to Meridian .
    I don't think the Tiwai Point smalter closing would be a benefit to all.

    Power company shareholders (the Mums & Dads the government promoted the IPO towards), regardless of the company, would get hammered. MEL more so due to HVDC link transmission constraints. Those nice dividends that we & the government enjoy would be slashed and the SP would head south effecting NZ Super fund. Bluff and Southland economies would get hammered, thousands of jobs would be effected directly or indirectly, social welfare costs increase, all when the Chch rebuild is starting to wind down. It would be a major economic shock in 2017 if the smelter were to close. Bill's surplus would be gone, and it's an election year

    The smelter is not the problem. The real problem is the huge difference in electricity price paid by the smelter v's Joe Bloggs (domestic supply profit much much greater than Tiwai supply profit [if there is any]), and the individual cost components being hidden in domestic kWhr pricing (allows each cost contributor to point the finger at someone else, accountants are very good at that).

    My read is that those 3 new transformers currently being installed are a sign that the smelter isn't closing anytime soon, but the shift towards distributed generation will slowly accelerate because no company on the supply side will voluntarily reduce their margins, and there was such fierce industry opposition to separating out the individual cost components of the kWhr price (even though they already do it for large commercial customers). However this PV solar is a long game, due to high entry cost of distributed generation. ie. $6k investment for a tiny 1.5kW system

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