MEL - Meridian Energy

[bull....]

For those wanting some additional background, S&P just announced a change to their weighting methodology for the underlying index that the Blackrock ETF replicates. MEL are currently around 4-5% weights in this index which has at least 6-7bn of ETF money folowing it. S&P launched a review in response to the clear observation of the effects that their buying was having on a whole lot of underlying stocks in the index.

Now, effectively the MEL and CEN weights are going to be liquidity capped after the next rebalance which will happen at the end of March. Broker estimates are for up to 500m worth of stock to be sold by Blackrock for both to make this rebalance.

The price is tanking because local fund managers and instos are getting out ahead of the ETF selling wave. MEL is getting hit more as there was already less fundamental support (lower dividend yield).

interesting indeed , why would you buy ahead of this then eh

[HITMAN]

Looks like its going to keep dropping to a more realistic value. I regretted selling at $8.10 for a few days as the price continued to rise, but those regrets have disappeared. If it moves south of $5 it may be time to step back a board the train.

[bull....]

Looks like its going to keep dropping to a more realistic value. I regretted selling at $8.10 for a few days as the price continued to rise, but those regrets have disappeared. If it moves south of $5 it may be time to step back a board the train.

good move they were rediculously overvalued , make sure you take account of rising bond yields also as these make gentailers ( bond proxies) less attractive the more bond yields go up

[101nick101]

Sold out at $7.20 and watched it climb to over $9 (crazy stuff). Will buy back in in the next month or so.

[Hoop]

Reached it's low point last Monday of $5.55ish ralled to $6.45 and now back to $5.95...Seems like we may have witnessed a dead cat bounce, if so, that is a bearish outlook...MEL has to regain the $6.00 area to keep support above the EMA200 (bear line).

Disc: added to my watchlist

[Beagle]

Reached it's low point last Monday of $5.55ish ralled to $6.45 and now back to $5.95...Seems like we may have witnessed a dead cat bounce, if so, that is a bearish outlook...MEL has to regain the $6.00 area to keep support above the EMA200 (bear line).

Disc: added to my watchlist

Doesn't look good on the chart that's for sure mate
I'm expecting this to retrace back to its support in the $4.50 - $5.00 range where it will be fair value in my opinion. Unfortunately the pending index rebalancing in this and others is sucking the wind out of GNE's sails too and they've come off the foils well and truly.

[Hoop]

Doesn't look good on the chart that's for sure mate
I'm expecting this to retrace back to its support in the $4.50 - $5.00 range where it will be fair value in my opinion. Unfortunately the pending index rebalancing in this and others is sucking the wind out of GNE's sails too and they've come off the foils well and truly.

My opinion of fair value is $4.00 - $5.00..I thought MEL was getting overvalued from mid 2019 onward and before Co-vid I casually mentioned to few people who were thinking of shifting to defensive stocks such as MEL that I thought $4.80 was too high..

Forward wind to the 2020 year..Ha Ha so much for my opinion.

However I do know that a stock priced at their fundamental value occurs only for a fleeting moment in time. Most of the time they oscillate between fundamentally over valued or under valued states...(which makes high Beta stocks so attractive [off topic])

Kinda makes your eyes water when you think what a future MEL price could be in it's undervalued state..eh

[Beagle]

My opinion of fair value is $4.00 - $5.00..I thought MEL was getting overvalued from mid 2019 onward and before Co-vid I casually mentioned to few people who were thinking of shifting to defensive stocks such as MEL that I thought $4.80 was too high..

Forward wind to the 2020 year..Ha Ha so much for my opinion.

However I do know that a stock priced at their fundamental value occurs only for a fleeting moment in time. Most of the time they oscillate between fundamentally over valued or under valued states...(which makes high Beta stocks so attractive [off topic])

Kinda makes your eyes water when you think what a future MEL price could be in it's undervalued state..eh

Yeah it does for sure mate. Might be best to keep a very close eye on the TA and forget about notions of where theoretical fair value is for a while. $500m of stock looking for a home with pending index changes is a fair bit of weight overhanging the market. Could have quite an effect on the share price at the time of the index change that's for sure !!

[RTM]

Yeah it does for sure mate. Might be best to keep a very close eye on the TA and forget about notions of where theoretical fair value is for a while. $500m of stock looking for a home with pending index changes is a fair bit of weight overhanging the market. Could have quite an effect on the share price at the time of the index change that's for sure !!

And on the flip side of that there ixx as all of us retirees with our money in the bank at 1% or whatever it is. Should underpin the price a bit I would think.

[Beagle]

And on the flip side of that there ixx as all of us retirees with our money in the bank at 1% or whatever it is. Should underpin the price a bit I would think.

Fair point mate. Might as well spend some of your money on a boat than get 1% MEL is safe yield, nice and clean and green (all the ESG boxes ticked) for sure. But what's a fair return in a rising interest rate environment when you can get 8-10% gross elsewhere in some other stocks (e.g. HGH HLG) ?