MEL - Meridian Energy

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Hmmm ..a great example of a conflict between a fearful media and a favourable TA..

TA has been showing a bullish divergence these last 6 weeks which says the high number of buyers were optimistic of a possible bargain in the near future.. not fearful as the media lead us to believe..

If I believed in Conspiracy Theories this would be a candidate.

Previously I wrote on this thread that I believed MEL's value to be between $4.00 to $5.00..but the recent market behaviour indicates the price should be a lot higher than that..

TA says buy

Disc: have no MEL

Attachment 12431

What are your thoughts on TA reliability during large rebalancing events?

[winner69]

Businessdesk has article BlackRock’s looming sell down of Meridian may never happen

Quotes a guy from Kernel Wealth who says all the talk is incorrect

Like this bit -

“To be frank, most active managers in New Zealand don’t understand how indices work,” he said.

Wonder if they still think this

[Hoop]

What are your thoughts on TA reliability during large rebalancing events?

What I have found is the high volume helps TA reliability. I guess large volume rebalancing events falls into this catergory.

...TA unfriendly stocks (poor reliability) tend to be illiquid with low volume trading activity or those that have a very large percentage of buy & hold type shareholders (tightly held)

[Traderx]

Sell off has not occurred yet, in fact holdings have increased slightly in last few days (fund inflows) see https://www.ishares.com/us/products/...ean-energy-etf

[bull....]

they are all reporting in the newspapers the sell down is today

[JohnnyTheHorse]

It is effective from Monday 19th (US time), which means the rebalancing occurs on the Friday.

NZX have just confirmed it's happening today with extension of adjust session. Should be a fun day.

[winner69]

they are all reporting in the newspapers the sell down is today

Be funny if Kernel Wealth man is right and there is no big sell down

[glennj]

Be funny if Kernel Wealth man is right and there is no big sell down

Yes it will be interesting to see what happens. There may in deed be no huge sell down and associated big fall in price?
I've got a cheeky order in which is unlikely to be filled? This is for CEN not MEL.
Thus if there is a big price fall I'm happy to grab some CEN. (already hold both MEL & CEN)
If there is no big price fall it does not matter but if there is going to be a big discount on the current price I'll partake.

[Aaron]

I have my buy prices for both MEL & CEN but they mustn't be realistic looking at the depth and morningstars valuation in ASB securities. 7-8% yields not realistic in todays environment.

I wouldn't be surprised after seeing the article in the herald this morning that there will be more than enough eager buyers to prevent a significant fall.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Be funny if Kernel Wealth man is right and there is no big sell down

Be embarrassing if it turns out he was talking about himself in not knowing how indicies worked.