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Thread: Meridian Float

  1. #1831
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    I suspect MEL will simply push cheap hydro to the NI during off peak times I suspect the major loser in this scenario will be NI coal and gas generators .....

  2. #1832
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    For those wanting to know

    Lake Pukaki > 100% full

    Manapouri - 104cm above main operating level.

    Te Anau - 140cm above main operating level.

    Great storage position to be at the start of winter that much is clear ...

    https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/who...s/lake-levels/

  3. #1833
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    Quote Originally Posted by boysy View Post
    For those wanting to know

    Lake Pukaki > 100% full

    Manapouri - 104cm above main operating level.

    Te Anau - 140cm above main operating level.

    Great storage position to be at the start of winter that much is clear ...

    https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/who...s/lake-levels/
    WOW, there's full and then there's really FULL !!

    New Logo and all that Jazz https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/new...aunch-MAI_2019
    Last edited by Beagle; 31-05-2019 at 12:12 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #1834
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    And it continues to rain Beagle

    https://www.energylink.co.nz/sites/d...y_20190530.pdf

    noting this was as of as yesterday - with plenty more rain falling since this time - NI 2nd driest on record that bit is telling ....

    Pukaki - 99% nominally full
    Manapour - 126% nominally fulli
    Te Anau - 163% nominally full
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  5. #1835
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    Hydro Spill - Estimated spill at the Mararoa Weir was 201.6 cumecs.
    Cranking my heat pump up is not going to solve that wastage lol
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #1836
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    Mate sent this photo of Benmore spillway. Like full

    Suppose good for Meridian .....not knowing how they make money (maybe too much water is bad?)
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    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

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  7. #1837
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    on fire new highs coming , $5 anyone?
    50c to go lol people snapping up there income before rates go to zero
    bull

  8. #1838
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    50c to go lol people snapping up there income before rates go to zero
    It hasn't quite got there yet but...

    $4.50 is a nice round 3 times the initial cost of the shares.

  9. #1839
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    mthly report out demand and inflows up ..all great
    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335995
    bull

  10. #1840
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    It hasn't quite got there yet but...

    $4.50 is a nice round 3 times the initial cost of the shares.
    Plus good dividends too. My heartfelt thanks to Bill and John.

  11. #1841
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    It hasn't quite got there yet but...

    $4.50 is a nice round 3 times the initial cost of the shares.
    Yes...the tax payer really missed out there. Nice work Sir John et al.

  12. #1842
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    Interesting to note the wholesale average price MEL and charging customers up 20% from last year must be helping the bottom line - expect a fantastic full year result ....

  13. #1843
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    Default $5 stock

    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    Yes...the tax payer really missed out there. Nice work Sir John et al.
    Everyone knew it was a $5 stock (maybe much more actually). Have you stood on those gigantic dams --one after another--calculate the cost of building them today? (although the greenies would rule it out) so that makes them priceless!! Have you heard the greenies scream re burning coal and gas for electricity. Have you seen the growth of anything electric. Have you flown over our cities at night?
    Yep we all knew it was a $5 stock but --Hey --Governments have to win votes--it's the biggest weakness of Democracy so this went out at $1 down and 50 cents later, the Rowling scheme went out the door, Social Security special tax for old age pensions went out the door, we still try to run a military when it should have gone decades ago --why --It wins votes!! Go Meridian I say .

  14. #1844
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    It hasn't quite got there yet but...

    $4.50 is a nice round 3 times the initial cost of the shares.
    It got there!

  15. #1845
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    Quote Originally Posted by boysy View Post
    Interesting to note the wholesale average price MEL and charging customers up 20% from last year must be helping the bottom line - expect a fantastic full year result ....
    One weather event winter does not a cash cow make. If the wholesale price trend flips, then next years result could be very different. The incremental value of MEL shares over FY2019 should be priced on what one year special dividend shareholders might expect.

    Quote Originally Posted by warren View Post
    Everyone knew it was a $5 stock (maybe much more actually). Have you stood on those gigantic dams --one after another--calculate the cost of building them today? (although the greenies would rule it out) so that makes them priceless!! Have you heard the greenies scream re burning coal and gas for electricity. Have you seen the growth of anything electric. Have you flown over our cities at night?
    Yep we all knew it was a $5 stock. <snip politics> Go Meridian I say .
    The problem with this kind of logic Warren, is that if the MEL share price shot up to $100 you would still be buying. Because there is no limit to how valuable you consider those hydro dam assets. There isn't the significant demand increase in electricity that you think is there -yet. Electric vehicles are still a sideshow, with the growth of double cab fossil fuelled utes dwarfing any growth in the electric car market. The winding down of power intensive industry in NZ more than accounts for any growth in domestic electricity consumption.

    I agree that dams of the scale that Meridian own are unlikely to be built again. I say that not only because the rise of the green movement have increased the value of rivers in their natural state. But also because the best sites have already been developed.

    The cap on the value of these dams will be determined by the cost to build alternative generation and storage. Despite recent advances in battery technology, it is very difficult to argue that the most cost effective 'industrial scale battery' today is a lake. But lakes are a finite resource, and other batteries are getting better and cheaper. Once the price of controlling a lake exceeds the price of alternative battery technology, then usage rights of lakes and their associated downstream turbines and dams will cease to increase in value. At that price point, the likes of MEL will be priced like a true utility again. And that means in 2019 dollars, taking today's share price and dividing it by a factor of two. Talking to a respected broker who is managing a share portfolio for an aged relative, he is advising his clients to reduce their MEL holding. He sees MEL as the most overvalued company in an overvalued sector, but is not advising clients to sell out completely.

    Let's end on a point of agreement though. At some point I agree MEL will be worth $5 per share. But the year in which that happens will probably start with the digits 21.. !

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 19-06-2019 at 08:27 AM.
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

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