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21-05-2019, 10:44 AM
#1811
Comparing MEL to HLG you have to be joking couta - I get that you don’t like boring utilities but HGL will never be used as a bond proxy
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21-05-2019, 10:52 AM
#1812
One thing about the MEL share price is that it always seems to be trending up ......hardly any dips along the way
On monthly prices over the last 5 years there only seems to be about 16 months when the share price hasn’t increased
That’s pretty good
Last edited by winner69; 21-05-2019 at 10:58 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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21-05-2019, 11:42 AM
#1813
Originally Posted by boysy
Comparing MEL to HLG you have to be joking couta - I get that you don’t like boring utilities but HGL will never be used as a bond proxy
You cant compare the companies but you can compare dividend yield, capital gain and express an opinion on the current share prices. Lol
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21-05-2019, 01:11 PM
#1814
As discussed they are very, very different companies. You're getting paid quite a bit more with HLG but taking on quite a bit more risk doing so.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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22-05-2019, 05:07 PM
#1815
Wow didn't check sp for a while, $4.42 who would've thought.
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22-05-2019, 08:35 PM
#1816
Originally Posted by sb9
Wow didn't check sp for a while, $4.42 who would've thought.
Probably no one I imagine.
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22-05-2019, 08:52 PM
#1817
Originally Posted by sb9
Wow didn't check sp for a while, $4.42 who would've thought.
Sometimes it's difficult to comprehend how market sentiment shifts when they get nervous about growth, or how much money can flow into 'safe' yields when it does.
One wonders whether buyers are even considering yield on their purchase price, versus sector safety as a place to hide their wealth until things turn around. Or how long it might be until it does, or even whether it does. Might explain why some of the so called safe yields have become so over-priced, it beggars belief that buying now they can actually yield an acceptable return on investment, although they still do relatively versus other 'safe' yields like pure bonds or bank deposits.
All this while some companies are smashing growth out of the park. It's all relative, usually based on our fear, or better put, our aversion to risk.
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25-05-2019, 09:01 AM
#1818
some interesting comments from the recent morningstar recommendation - via ASB securities
Meridian is Thriving in FY19; Lifting FVE to NZD 3.50
Narrow-moat-rated Meridian Energy's earnings are tracking comfortably above last year. For the 10 months to April 2019, we estimate EBITDA is up a high-teens percentage on the previous corresponding period. While part of the improved performance is due to increased rainfall, which we don't overly focus on, Meridian is pushing through electricity price increases to large customers. We expect this to continue, leading us to upgrade medium-term forecasts. We increase our fair value estimate 9% to NZD 3.50. At current prices around NZD 4.40, the stock is overvalued.
In contrast to the past couple of years, the South Island is experiencing above average rainfall in fiscal 2019 while the North Island has been drier than usual. Underwhelming inflows to North Island catchments combined with gas supply issues pushed wholesale electricity prices higher, while major South Island generators such as Meridian have been producing copious amounts of low-cost hydroelectricity. This is the perfect mix for maximising earnings. Meridian's hydro generation in the fiscal year to date is tracking 10.7% above the prior corresponding period. On May 10, North Island storage sat at just 61% of historical average for this time of year, while South Island storage was 113%. This suggests favourable conditions will continue. However, we don't worry too much about variable rainfall. Our valuation is based on long-term rainfall averages.
Another positive for earnings this fiscal year is that high wholesale prices allowed Meridian to exercise its option with Genesis Energy profitably. Meridian contracts with Genesis for the right to buy electricity at a fixed price from the flexible gas and coal-fired Huntly power station. Being 100% renewable, this is a risk mitigation strategy to protect Meridian in dry years, when it doesn't produce enough power to supply its customers. But it can also provide extra profit when wholesale prices are high.
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Assuming they hit the EBITDA morningstar are expecting the divi could see a nice bump, storage continues to look good and as thought MEL using that profitable swaption at a fixed cost - wonder how much this fixed cost swaption is costing genesis
Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils
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27-05-2019, 08:15 AM
#1819
MELs hydro catchment due to get a battering of rain over the next few days - In light of lakes being full will be interesting to see how much power is sent north over the HVDC.
https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/who...s/lake-levels/
Looks like MEL will be running hard into the end of the FY should be a cracker of a result
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27-05-2019, 11:17 AM
#1820
Rooftop solar industry veterans say Australia has become a dumping ground for poor-quality solar products and some are questioning the regulatory oversight of household rooftop solar installers and products.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-...ction=business
just as we thought waste of money
one step ahead of the herd
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