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  1. #1941
    Senior Member
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    Id love to know what the cost of electricity is, which should include amortization of assets, transmission, etc.

    If I were Rio, I'd have calculated the cost benefit of moving the plant elsewhere, and started negotiations a long time ago, so i could actually move the plant if there were better offers elsewhere. Assuming it's currently profitable, which it probably is, otherwise other plans would already be in motion, I imagine the opportunity cost of shutting it down to open somewhere else outweighs keeping it running for another epoch.

    I imagine it's fairly expensive to leave a plant like that unoperational, and I would guess it'd be near impossible to sell.

    My guess is that rio will either keep it running for several years while another plant can be built elsewhere, or just put up with it, which is more likely.

    Good time to buy power shares imo.

  2. #1942
    percy
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    Crikey ....back up over $5.00.!

  3. #1943
    Advanced Member
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    Catchments full to bursting - Pukaki alone is up over 7m in the past month. You would expect MEL should have no problems generating through summer though works to the HVDC cable will limit output north - to what extent this will impact production is yet to be seen ....

    https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/who...ns/lake-levels

  4. #1944
    Investor
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    Jul 2014
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    Wow this really powering ahead now, currently $5.74 and heading to $6 soon...

  5. #1945
    Member Onion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Wow this really powering ahead now, currently $5.74 and heading to $6 soon...
    Lots of rain and concerns about a Tiwai smelter shutdown are presumably receding too.
    Last edited by Onion; 12-02-2020 at 01:00 PM. Reason: Clarify

  6. #1946
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    Lots of rain and concerns about a Tiwai smelter shutdown are presumably receding too.
    the sell off over twai concerns provided a great opportunity to buy , over $6 soon i reckon
    one step ahead of the herd

  7. #1947
    Junior Member
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    Jan 2020
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    Welly
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    woa, im glad i sold my other shares to buy more MEL shares yesterday ^^ good return today.
    what happened ?!?

  8. #1948
    Banned
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    Dec 2015
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    Official cash rate stays...corona virus fear investors to other sectors.. investors felt MEL, GNE, CEN.MCY....are the best as reliable dividend payer stocks....

  9. #1949
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    ... and here is the third review in my wee pseudo random analysis how good analyst predictions are. Bear with me, at some stage I publish as well an overview ...

    In January 2019 the peak MCY share price was $3.63 and analyst consensus for January 2020 was $3.54 - i.e. the analysts expected the MCY share price to slightly drop. Buying recommendation was (consistent with their price prediction) a "weak hold" (4.6/10).

    Peak MCY share price in January 2020 was actually $5.34 (i.e. 47% up on the peak January 2019 price and 51% above their consensus prediction), i.e. share price went up significantly despite the analysts forecasting a drop.

    Looking at their buy recommendation - MCY outperformed the NZX50 over the last 12 months by more than 15% - that's clearly better than a "weak hold".

    Looks like the analysts got both predictions wrong - this is another 0:2 against the analysts with an overall hit rate for them so far of 1:5;

    Not flash.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #1950
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Jarden, thought to have the finest analysts in the country just two days ago upgraded Synlait to the late $8 range somewhere, I forget, was about $8.80 from memory.
    Lets not forget that professional analysts have the ability to meet with senior management and one would have hoped they did so before playing their Pied Piper tune and leading their clients over the cliff.

    DYOR.

    On the subject of MEL, everyone appears now to be thinking the smelter risk no longer exists and I don't think that's a 100% safe assumption at this stage.
    Last edited by Beagle; 13-02-2020 at 11:13 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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