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  1. #1201
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    Artificial? I would suggest demand is artificially being propped up by Tiwai. Remember the $30M National pumped in only a few years back?
    One of the main reasons electricity prices are very high in NZ & climbing (or so we are told) is to meet peak demand of a couple of hours a day.
    Tiwai closing would help resolve this.
    Personally I don't think it will close, but who knows.
    As mentioned before.
    Tiwai has been a known risk for investors for sometime & its a bit rich to expect the rest of NZ to subsidise your dividends.
    Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.

  2. #1202
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Artificial?
    And to think, people took confidence from an extension of negotiations.

    There is no certainty in an extension. In fact, there is less certainty.

    Be fearful when others are greedy! (Obviously the greedy came out when others were fearful!)
    'I often quote myself. It adds spice to my conversation.' - G B Shaw

  3. #1203
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    robbo, I think the market has worked out NZAS is a prostitute - the only issue now is the price and whether NZAS will service more than one client.......

    mouse, thanks for your comments last evening

  4. #1204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    robbo, I think the market has worked out NZAS is a prostitute - the only issue now is the price and whether NZAS will service more than one client.......

    mouse, thanks for your comments last evening
    Servicing two or more power companies at once while the rest just sit and watch.

    Meanwhile the big boss who owns the smelter rakes in the cash...
    'I often quote myself. It adds spice to my conversation.' - G B Shaw

  5. #1205
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    That 50mill per year saving by not subsidising the Northlanders, and Coasters, would be a no-brainer game changer, for NZAS.

    Winston and Damian will whinge of course, but the Nats will find a way to compensate them by other methods, separated by 2 degrees from power prices - four lane bridges anyone? regional differentials for the dole? Regional WINZ power allowances?

    Or perhaps just add another special rating to the Aucklanders rates bills - they can clearly afford it, given the ludicrous prices they pay for some very average quality houses

  6. #1206
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Artificial? I would suggest demand is artificially being propped up by Tiwai. Remember the $30M National pumped in only a few years back?
    One of the main reasons electricity prices are very high in NZ & climbing (or so we are told) is to meet peak demand of a couple of hours a day.
    Tiwai closing would help resolve this.
    Personally I don't think it will close, but who knows.
    As mentioned before.
    Tiwai has been a known risk for investors for sometime & its a bit rich to expect the rest of NZ to subsidise your dividends.
    Tiwai would not have closed if the Government refused to provide a $30M subsidy. In hindsight, the Government's bluff was called and they lost, but that's clearly not happening this time.

    Having a taxpayer asset such as Manapouri subsiding your power prices through what amounts to quantitative easing, is not a viable long term solution to the pricing situation.

  7. #1207
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    Quote Originally Posted by robbo24 View Post
    Servicing two or more power companies at once while the rest just sit and watch.

    Meanwhile the big boss who owns the smelter rakes in the cash...
    Yes, the real winner in all this is the smelter (and their accountants/lawyers). Hopefully the other generators are playing hardball in their pricing negotiations.

  8. #1208
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    It may not have closed, so why then give them $30M? You are suggesting the government made a mistake, if so I agree.
    Lower electricity prices amounts to QE. I suggest you read a little bit about what QE is.
    Would it create stimulus to the NZ economy? Definitely and that's where the similarity ends. f
    The stimulus would be far more direct & wide spread than any QE program has achieved.
    Are you suggesting that NZ energy demand wont grow in the future to eventually take up the slack?
    Demand will grow over time & with lower prices quicker than they would have.
    The real question for me is we should be allowing more generation, but instead of South Island generation that is very inefficient, should we be producing more localized energy where it is being consumed i.e. in the upper half of the North Island.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zaphod View Post
    Tiwai would not have closed if the Government refused to provide a $30M subsidy. In hindsight, the Government's bluff was called and they lost, but that's clearly not happening this time.

    Having a taxpayer asset such as Manapouri subsiding your power prices through what amounts to quantitative easing, is not a viable long term solution to the pricing situation.
    Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.

  9. #1209
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    It may not have closed, so why then give them $30M? You are suggesting the government made a mistake, if so I agree.
    Yes, we agree on this point. They should not have supplied a subsidy.
    To be fair though, I think the Government were between a rock and a hard place on this issue. Don’t supply a subsidy and Tiwai closes? They’ll be blamed. Supply a subsidy and Tiwai doesn’t close? They’ll be chastised for wasting money.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Lower electricity prices amounts to QE. I suggest you read a little bit about what QE is.
    No, that's not what I said.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Would it create stimulus to the NZ economy? Definitely and that's where the similarity ends. f
    The stimulus would be far more direct & wide spread than any QE program has achieved.
    The degree to which it would create an economic stimulus is extremely debatable. Projections on areas of economic growth centre around less electricity intensive industries, such as those in the service sector.

    A strong manufacturing sector (which would presumably involve higher levels of electricity demand) is highly unlikely to return despite lower electricity prices.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Are you suggesting that NZ energy demand wont grow in the future to eventually take up the slack?
    Demand will grow over time & with lower prices quicker than they would have.
    Electricity demand growth is projected to be low. Home PV, wind, micro hydro etc. and rapid increases in efficiency will all help sustain this slow growth trend.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    The real question for me is we should be allowing more generation, but instead of South Island generation that is very inefficient, should we be producing more localized energy where it is being consumed i.e. in the upper half of the North Island.
    I agree. Investment in North Island generation and transmission infrastructure is critical to efficiently servicing the key economic growth areas.

  10. #1210
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    Just a question. My ASB Watchlist still list MELCA and MEL. I thought people moved to MEL? Please educate me.

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