MEL - Meridian Energy

[bull....]

I would think now that energy prices around the world a falling big time any major decisions around solar , lng, batteries etc ill be delayed now so he future of power companies and oil companies looks pretty good now for the for seeable future

[IAK]

I'm all for distributed generation but I just can't see how solar could provide sufficient power to run a household and 2-3 ev's esp. in a cold, wet winter.

Wind and solar are rising, but energy revolutions don't happen quickly or smoothly. on.wsj.com/1HZPye2

[sb9]

17ml traded so far pre-market...

[bull....]

big pre market crossing

[Joshuatree]

I was discussing with a friend who has switched his portfolio from growth to income recently, Meridian being one stock he has bought in big. The question can the ComCom force the gentailers to lower their charges despite being 51% govt owned, i think yes he said no. So i looked up ComCom and got this

"The Commission is an independent Crown entity established under section 8 of the Commerce Act 1986.The Commission is not subject to direction from the government in carrying out its enforcement and regulatory control activities. The Commerce Commission's purpose is to achieve the best possible outcomes in competitive and regulated markets for the long-term benefit of New Zealanders."

So in theory all it takes is complaint from you or me or anyone for them to decide whether to do a review on the pricing of power. So maybe more risk in our plain vanilla power companies then thought?

[xafalcon]

The comcom would be unlikely to take this action as it's outside their scope. The market has competition. End of story

The lines companies are a different story. They are monopolies in their own geographic region(s). They are also making huge profits. Two reasons why they are potentially in the firing line

[Hoop]

I was discussing with a friend who has switched his portfolio from growth to income recently, Meridian being one stock he has bought in big. The question can the ComCom force the gentailers to lower their charges despite being 51% govt owned, i think yes he said no. So i looked up ComCom and got this

"The Commission is an independent Crown entity established under section 8 of the Commerce Act 1986.The Commission is not subject to direction from the government in carrying out its enforcement and regulatory control activities. The Commerce Commission's purpose is to achieve the best possible outcomes in competitive and regulated markets for the long-term benefit of New Zealanders."

So in theory all it takes is complaint from you or me or anyone for them to decide whether to do a review on the pricing of power. So maybe more risk in our plain vanilla power companies then thought?

I think the market is in the process of self correcting as the prices are not increasing..there's more competition out there now, especially this year..
A couple of Charts below reproduced from the "If National Wins...." thread shows a price downtrend from 2008 onwards ..If there was anytime ComCom should've intervened it would've been 2007...The partial float has seen better market efficiencies and a sudden drop in pricing.....Why should ComCom be called in?

DISC:- I Hold MEL

[bull....]

The comcom would be unlikely to take this action as it's outside their scope. The market has competition. End of story

The lines companies are a different story. They are monopolies in their own geographic region(s). They are also making huge profits. Two reasons why they are potentially in the firing line

agree plenty of competition around for power companies, power companies are only increasing profits thru efficiencies in operations and capex spend decline.
the lines companies are already being looked at - I like the user pays system there looking at between nth and sth island but guess im a bit biased being a mel shareholder but then again why should they subsidise nth island users?

[Joshuatree]

Thanks guys for your opinions. On another point ; I'm hearing this years ELNino has been predicted with a % of certainty to cause extreme dry and wet areas. Am i right thinking Meridian will be a beneficiary with its southern alps catchment and The Waikato river catchment may be the the worst for MRP?

[Rossimarnz]

Hi Joshuatree. I am no meteorogist but in the North Island I thought the drought impacts of an El Nino event were located on the east coast and Waikato would be unlikely to experience a significant drought event. I think the same principle applies in the South Island but am not entirely sure on how this effects the Southern Alp catchments.

Anyone named Jim Hickey care to comment?