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05-10-2015, 05:41 PM
#1301
Originally Posted by Rossimarnz
....
Anyone named Jim Hickey care to comment?
Not Jim Hickey, but as I near retirement age I have returned to University part time, and this is my field of research. Just something that is totally different to electricity trading, yet is still mildly related.
Yes, you have it right. An El Nino usually means more westerly winds, and in turn that usually means wetter in the west and drier in the east. It doesn't always happen that way though, and there have been some El Niņos that have presented very dry conditions all over. I believe I have found the reason for that and have a paper being published later this year that may go someway to explaining that.
My call is that this summer is likely to be very wet in Meridian's catchments early on, but will swing to dry sometime in February.
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05-10-2015, 08:39 PM
#1302
Thanks Rossi and Jantar ,i was really hoping you'd respond. Indifference elsewhere it seems. Will do some more sleuthing e.g. how much of the rainfall falls on the west side and how much will get over the peaks to the east of the Alps
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06-10-2015, 08:59 AM
#1303
Member
I think the winter snowfalls in the Southern Alps are the more significant event as far as southern hydro storage is concerned as much of the storage capacity is infact generated by snowmelt rather than rainfall. Again happy to stand corrected.
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06-10-2015, 09:36 AM
#1304
Originally Posted by Rossimarnz
I think the winter snowfalls in the Southern Alps are the more significant event as far as southern hydro storage is concerned as much of the storage capacity is infact generated by snowmelt rather than rainfall. Again happy to stand corrected.
There is a bit of a disagreement in the scientific world over the issue of snowmelt. The latest published paper (Kerr, 2013) gives only a 3% contribution to the South Island's mean annual streamflow. Different catchments do act differently and other papers give numbers from 10 to 30%. I personally use a base figure of 15% for the hydro catchments and modify that according the amount of estimated snow accumulation over winter, to arrive at the amount of water stored as snow that should be relaesed for generation over spring and summer.
Rainfall is still much more significant than snowmelt.
Last edited by Jantar; 06-10-2015 at 09:39 AM.
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06-10-2015, 10:34 AM
#1305
Originally Posted by Jantar
Rainfall is still much more significant than snowmelt.
Surely snowmelt is just stored (or deferred) rainfall? It just time shifts it from winter to spring/summer?
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06-10-2015, 10:48 AM
#1306
Originally Posted by Harvey Specter
Surely snowmelt is just stored (or deferred) rainfall? It just time shifts it from winter to spring/summer?
Yes it is. What is important is:
How much is actually stored?
When will it be released?
What rate will it release?
Will any add to glacial accumulation? (we'll see it years to decades later)
Will there be carry over to the following year? (happens around 50% of the time)
The amount of snowmelt that is added to the streamflow is taken as lost flow until it actually melts.
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13-10-2015, 10:41 AM
#1307
Banned
Todays Craigs Investment Partners 2015 investor day presentation;
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/222545.pdf
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15-10-2015, 10:50 AM
#1308
Nice dividend in the bank today.
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15-10-2015, 10:51 AM
#1309
Originally Posted by IAK
Nice dividend in the bank today.
My thoughts too
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15-10-2015, 10:54 AM
#1310
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