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15-10-2015, 11:46 AM
#1311
Originally Posted by IAK
Nice dividend in the bank today.
It is a very nice dividend stock. I only wish I had bought more at IPO but things looked a lot more uncertain then than they do now.
My biggest concern for the mid term is Tiwai but on the flip side, I wonder if in 10-15 years there will be 100,000 electric cars driving around NZ.
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15-10-2015, 12:04 PM
#1312
The divies would have covered the cost of the stock by then....hopefully
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28-10-2015, 08:55 PM
#1313
Snippets from Craigs Excellent 23 page report on electricity companies
- MEL will be losing c. 200MW of swaption cover post CY18, but has c. 80-90MW of year round offsetting generation as a result of the modified Tiwai renegotiation contract that has just occurred. With modified hydro dispatch and no increase in load over the next few years MEL should be able to continue without any extra cover.
MEL had above average inflows(but lower than its pcp) however materially benefitted from increasing prices
MEL is strongly positioned with Pukaki around 136% of average and manapouri at 111%
Impact of El nino . Meridian should see 10% plus inflows into Manapouri, with the rest of its dams above average inflows.ElNino should also drive irrigation demand now representing c 3% of total demand in NZ.
Taking changes into account MEL has an increased FY16 EBITDA from $618 mill to $624 mill due to better than expected start to year and most likely biggest beneficiary of El nino
Target price $2.59
MEL continues to show strength in the face of weaker hydro conditions
Retail sales were also up 5.9% against its pcp offsetting some of the wholesale price softness. Wecalculate that the September energy margin was flat against a very strong pcp, this leaving thequarter up c. NZ$9m (+3.6%) on 1Q15.
El Nino.........MEL’s and CEN’s assets fare relatively well with average or above inflows, and 20.000000%)]as these two firms control c. 64% of]the country’s hydro capacity this means that overall generation is likely to remain at normal level or even be slightly elevated.
Meridians Hydro Ohau A,B ,C
Benmore
Aviemore
Waitaki
Manapouri
3 Windfarms sth island 1 in North
MEL generates re 30% of NZ electricity
]We expect Meridian to benefit from a potential change in the Transmission Pricing Methodology(TPM) in FY18/19, allowing it to grow earnings ahead of its peers.
We expect that MEL should fare well, with its hydro generation positioned in regions that are likely to see greater than normal rainfall over the spring period ]the summer period relativelyneutral. In particular, Manapouri is predisposed to the favourable conditions. Managementanalysis finds that an El Niño event causes a statistically significant increase of c. 10% in these dams
While the company is indicating a heightened expectation that the rest of the year will be wetterand cooler than average, it still notes the continued possibility of dry conditions still occurring even under dry conditions. Overall we see the event as a positive for MEL.
Last edited by Joshuatree; 28-10-2015 at 09:02 PM.
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28-10-2015, 09:19 PM
#1314
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Snippets from Craigs Excellent 23 page report on electricity companies
- MEL will be losing c. 200MW of swaption cover post CY18, but has c. 80-90MW of year round offsetting generation as a result of the modified Tiwai renegotiation contract that has just occurred. With modified hydro dispatch and no increase in load over the next few years MEL should be able to continue without any extra cover.
MEL had above average inflows(but lower than its pcp) however materially benefitted from increasing prices
MEL is strongly positioned with Pukaki around 136% of average and manapouri at 111%
Impact of El nino . Meridian should see 10% plus inflows into Manapouri, with the rest of its dams above average inflows.ElNino should also drive irrigation demand now representing c 3% of total demand in NZ.
Taking changes into account MEL has an increased FY16 EBITDA from $618 mill to $624 mill due to better than expected start to year and most likely biggest beneficiary of El nino
Target price $2.59
MEL continues to show strength in the face of weaker hydro conditions
Retail sales were also up 5.9% against its pcp offsetting some of the wholesale price softness. Wecalculate that the September energy margin was flat against a very strong pcp, this leaving thequarter up c. NZ$9m (+3.6%) on 1Q15.
El Nino.........MEL’s and CEN’s assets fare relatively well with average or above inflows, and 20.000000%)]as these two firms control c. 64% of]the country’s hydro capacity this means that overall generation is likely to remain at normal level or even be slightly elevated.
Meridians Hydro Ohau A,B ,C
Benmore
Aviemore
Waitaki
Manapouri
3 Windfarms sth island 1 in North
MEL generates re 30% of NZ electricity
]We expect Meridian to benefit from a potential change in the Transmission Pricing Methodology(TPM) in FY18/19, allowing it to grow earnings ahead of its peers.
We expect that MEL should fare well, with its hydro generation positioned in regions that are likely to see greater than normal rainfall over the spring period ]the summer period relativelyneutral. In particular, Manapouri is predisposed to the favourable conditions. Managementanalysis finds that an El Niño event causes a statistically significant increase of c. 10% in these dams
While the company is indicating a heightened expectation that the rest of the year will be wetterand cooler than average, it still notes the continued possibility of dry conditions still occurring even under dry conditions. Overall we see the event as a positive for MEL.
Can someone update what they have said on MRP? (over on that forum or send me a private message? thanks)
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29-10-2015, 05:49 AM
#1315
cheers for the update J, can you comment if craigs comment on the future of electricity markets in nz in there report and who might be well positioned if there is change in the future?
one step ahead of the herd
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29-10-2015, 09:21 AM
#1316
Craigs research snippets . Craigs research is now excellent imo and worth being signed up for. No more from me.
A continuation in demand growth. TRanspowers forecast demand growth 1.1% to 1.7% to 2019 and then 0.9%- 1% thereafter
Generally strong Op performance for Gentailers 1 Q 16
Contact and Meridian above average inflows into Sth island Dams during El Nino
Total returns forecast for companies 21%to 27%,TPW top MEL at the low end.
2019 forward prices reaching $81/MWH Dec 2019 (currently re $76/MWH
As a result it is our continued belief that NZAS will wait for the pending TPM outcome to make aclosure decision, the expected benefit to the company (under the current proposed options)ranging between NZ$ 52-56m. If there is a negative decision, the company is likely to shut Tiwai.More certainty on the TPM outcome is unlikely prior to June 2016.
Regulation has come a long way
The company(MRP) highlighted how far the sector has come over the last 18 months from a regulatorystandpoint. The EA has made significant ground in reforming the transmission pricingmethodology, attempting to resolve the historical HDVC issue and NZAS’ concerns.
Labour is now in a better dialogue with companies, starting to move thinking away from a single-buyer proposal, while the Greens have formally moved away from the policy. Signal likely to remain blurred as to whether Huntly should stay open or close
The most topical discussion point at the moment is whether Genesis will or will not close Huntlyat the end of CY18. This we believe is moot as what Genesis has in effect done is moved dry yearcapacity from a buyers market to a sellers market. The general view is that Meridian or MRPcould require dry year cover in CY19 and will be encouraging Genesis to keep the coal plant open.This assumes that MEL and MRP don’t have other ways of removing the risk.
- MEL will be losing c. 200MW of swaption cover post CY18, but has c. 80-90MW of yearround offsetting generation as a result of the modified Tiwai renegotiation contractthat has just occurred. With modified hydro dispatch and no increase in load over thenext few years MEL should be able to continue without any extra cover.
- , MRP has lost the extra cover from Southdown, but this was never going to be material in MRP’s outlook. It has the ability to remain under hedged, where it currently sits, and would nevertheless be able to over earn in a tight volatile market, where NI becomescapacity constrained, due to its Taupo storage asset.
- While a closure of Huntly reduces Genesis capacity, it will just need to reduce some ofits fixed price C&I exposure (as it has done in the past) to bring it back in balance
So who hurts if it is not the gentailers? It is the C&I customer. If this customer isn’t willing to pay up for FY19+ contracts, then there is no reason for Huntly to remain open and certainly norational new build to take place either
The risk is that the forward signal is getting blurred, this potentially murky due to the keyindustry risk of Tiwai shutting sooner than later. In MRP’s recent strategy day the companyhighlighted the conundrum that faces CY19 using the following matrix:
Last edited by Joshuatree; 29-10-2015 at 09:29 AM.
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06-11-2015, 10:27 AM
#1317
Annual shareholder meeting today? Anyone going?
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06-11-2015, 11:34 AM
#1318
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Craigs research is now excellent imo and worth being signed up for.
What is the cost of "signing up"? Do you have to subscribe to their fund management services?
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06-11-2015, 07:36 PM
#1319
Originally Posted by Onion
What is the cost of "signing up"? Do you have to subscribe to their fund management services?
basically if you are a customer, they give you ( or you ask) for a log in to their website.
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24-11-2015, 10:00 AM
#1320
went to the agm, good stuff glad to see there presentation and thoughts on future tech, getting close to breaking out of the consolidation.
one step ahead of the herd
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