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  1. #1216
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    It seems to me that as the CO2 taxes bite these are the best positioned.

  2. #1217
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12215148
    I am curious as to why a power company needs such ritzy digs in one of the most expensive parts of Auckland and I am quite pleased that this is one utility I chose not to invest in after reading this.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #1218
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12215148
    I am curious as to why a power company needs such ritzy digs in one of the most expensive parts of Auckland and I am quite pleased that this is one utility I chose not to invest in after reading this.
    From the perspective of a (very small) Augusta shareholder it looks like an excellent use of MCY shareholders' funds to me.

  4. #1219
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    Looks like its day of downgrades today..

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333499

    "18 April 2019 Mercury announced today that it has revised its FY2019 EBITDAF guidance from $515 million to $495 million. This is due to an expected 150 GWh reduction in full year forecast hydro generation due to continued dry weather in the Taupo area. Based on hydro generation year to date and the current below average Taupo lake level, this 150 GWh reduction is forecast to mostly occur in Q4-FY2019. FY2019 annual hydro generation is now forecast to be 4,000 GWh in line with the historic average."

  5. #1220
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Looks like its day of downgrades today..

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333499

    "18 April 2019 Mercury announced today that it has revised its FY2019 EBITDAF guidance from $515 million to $495 million. This is due to an expected 150 GWh reduction in full year forecast hydro generation due to continued dry weather in the Taupo area. Based on hydro generation year to date and the current below average Taupo lake level, this 150 GWh reduction is forecast to mostly occur in Q4-FY2019. FY2019 annual hydro generation is now forecast to be 4,000 GWh in line with the historic average."
    Today in CEN's March op report - Taranaki Combined Cycle plant, "entered into an agreement that will enable sustained operation ." Looks like big early winter price spikes around peak periods could be ahead. That's more bad news for Flick et al. Cen's South Island storage looks good.

  6. #1221
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hectorplains View Post
    Today in CEN's March op report - Taranaki Combined Cycle plant, "entered into an agreement that will enable sustained operation ." Looks like big early winter price spikes around peak periods could be ahead. That's more bad news for Flick et al. Cen's South Island storage looks good.
    GNE feeling the pinch too - "Genesis now expects an outcome towards the lower end of its previously stated
    FY19 EBITDAF guidance of $360 million to $375 million."

  7. #1222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hectorplains View Post
    Today in CEN's March op report - Taranaki Combined Cycle plant, "entered into an agreement that will enable sustained operation ." Looks like big early winter price spikes around peak periods could be ahead. That's more bad news for Flick et al. Cen's South Island storage looks good.
    I see no reason for it to be a general rule. But it does seem that when things are not so optimal for MCY, they are looking better for CEN. A really clever trader might be able to develop a long term strategy to 'swap between the two'. I prefer to not worry about picking which way the market is going and just own both!

    SNOOPY
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

  8. #1223
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Low interest rates, with the threat of lower again, plus that magic element that keeps the SP of utilities like this so high and I find that I have averaged a 20% compound annual return over the 5 years since buying in (with bottle top medals for brilliance in hindsight handed out for some fortuitous bottom picking).

    Investing is a random pudding sprinkled with a light topping of luck. ( Tis supper time here )
    om mani peme hum

  9. #1224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Low interest rates, with the threat of lower again, plus that magic element that keeps the SP of utilities like this so high and I find that I have averaged a 20% compound annual return over the 5 years since buying in (with bottle top medals for brilliance in hindsight handed out for some fortuitous bottom picking).

    Investing is a random pudding sprinkled with a light topping of luck. ( Tis supper time here )
    very nice return
    bull

  10. #1225
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Low interest rates, with the threat of lower again, plus that magic element that keeps the SP of utilities like this so high and I find that I have averaged a 20% compound annual return over the 5 years since buying in (with bottle top medals for brilliance in hindsight handed out for some fortuitous bottom picking).

    Investing is a random pudding sprinkled with a light topping of luck. ( Tis supper time here )
    Agree with the first paragraph and often the 2nd applies.
    Mercury is positioned well and its future looks bright.
    This year financially will have a small adverse effect due to the extremely dry summer.
    I am now out of all gentailers apart from mercury which I see as having the most promising future

  11. #1226
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    top performer this mth of the gentailers , playing catch up
    bull

  12. #1227
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    on fire up 17% for the mth
    bull

  13. #1228
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    I don't get it... why is this going up so much? Yea I know interest rates are expected to stay lower for longer, but there has been a massive re-rating on MCY more so than other gentailers I feel (don't actually know if this is the case)

  14. #1229
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    I don't get it... why is this going up so much? Yea I know interest rates are expected to stay lower for longer, but there has been a massive re-rating on MCY more so than other gentailers I feel (don't actually know if this is the case)
    it was playing catch up the other gentailers . that was the opp to close the gap. it happened with gne a while ago as well when i was saying on that thread it wass not going up as much as the others and then it had its catchup although it has been a bit of laggard this mth so maybe your get gne play a catchup again soon to match the others performance this mth.
    bull

  15. #1230
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    New ATH, not much in the way of $5 now.

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