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  1. #1186
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    The price review doesnt take account of the Entrust dividends. Says you are paying high charges. It is the worst report I have seen in my time in the Industry and that is 50 years . 30 at very senior levels.

  2. #1187
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    Spot electricity prices are now high all day.
    I can see this continuing with genesis unit 5(403mw) out of action and dry conditions plus extra Tiwai pot.
    Its very difficult to work out which gentailer will profit out of this.
    My speculation is that meridian and trustpower will be disadvantaged.
    Possibly mercury,contact and genesis could do well.
    I wonder if anyone better qualified has done the research as to which gentailer will have the best 6 monthly report

  3. #1188
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    I hope you get a bite, id be int too.
    South island lakes are low. How is lake taupo?
    Gas supply is currently limited.
    A Rankine unit is down /being in maintainence?
    So we have an energy shortage atm, a bit of perfect storm.

  4. #1189
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    I recall in past years Huntly has had to shut down over summer because its resource consent to discharge cooling water into the Waikato River is suspened when the river water temperature rises above a certain level. Should the current situation continue and the water temp restriction come into force hillarity will ensue.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Diamonds are a girls best friend.

  5. #1190
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn Munroe View Post
    I recall in past years Huntly has had to shut down over summer because its resource consent to discharge cooling water into the Waikato River is suspened when the river water temperature rises above a certain level. Should the current situation continue and the water temp restriction come into force hillarity will ensue.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    I think we have to keep the lights on regardless this year. At a guess I'd suggest GNE will be doing well out of this situation this half.
    Last edited by Beagle; 02-11-2018 at 07:34 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #1191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn Munroe View Post
    I recall in past years Huntly has had to shut down over summer because its resource consent to discharge cooling water into the Waikato River is suspened when the river water temperature rises above a certain level. Should the current situation continue and the water temp restriction come into force hillarity will ensue.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    It used to be, and as far as I am aware still is that:

    The discharge of cooling water into the river is limited by the temperature of the water measured [one km?] downstream of the station not exceeding 25C.

    So if the upstream temperature is at or above that limit then generation is limited by the capacity of the onsite [re circulatory] cooling system which can handle, from memory, about 250MW of generation.
    om mani peme hum

  7. #1192
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    There's a staggering amount of water flowing past that Huntly power station every minute of the day. I find it hard to comprehend how the operation of a couple of rankine units would make much of a difference to the temperature...but I am not pretending to have any expertise whatsoever on the matter.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #1193
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    There's a staggering amount of water flowing past that Huntly power station every minute of the day. I find it hard to comprehend how the operation of a couple of rankine units would make much of a difference to the temperature...but I am not pretending to have any expertise whatsoever on the matter.
    They sure do affect the temperature. The heat output into the cooling water is around 25 MW per unit and if only 50% of that gets into the Waikato river, then that is a huge warming effect.

    The resource consent on river heating is not just the 25 deg maximum, there is also a temperature difference between above and below the station. Although that difference is less likely to restrict the station output than the strict maximum.

  9. #1194
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    Too volatile for one supplier.....

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/108...ket-volatility

  10. #1195
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    I hope you get a bite, id be int too.
    South island lakes are low. How is lake taupo?
    Gas supply is currently limited.
    A Rankine unit is down /being in maintainence?
    So we have an energy shortage atm, a bit of perfect storm.
    "How is lake Taupo?"
    Saw a snippet in the herald today. lake taupo level at a 2 year low atpit.

  11. #1196
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    1. "Batteries
      > Useful when coupled to solar but at significant additional cost
      > Lake Taupo storage equivalent to 41m 14kWh Tesla Powerwalls"
      Mercury Investor Roadshow Presentation November 2018 29 pages 2.4MB





  12. #1197
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    In this market batteries plus solar will make money as you can go on spot and get peak prices.

  13. #1198
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    Quote Originally Posted by horus1 View Post
    In this market batteries plus solar will make money as you can go on spot and get peak prices.
    What mercury is pointing out is that lake taupo in the right conditions-usually winter -can be used as a massive storage peaker equivalent in power to a massive number of tesla batteries.

    If solar plus batteries made economic sense wouldnt we be doing it now ?

    Lots of rain now forcast-if it eventuates in mcy catchment we will see prices back to normal.

  14. #1199
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    Of the few shares that I currently hold this is the best performing, as in the only one where the price is rising, over recent months.

    In fact, as I fortunately bought most of my holding very close to the all time low nearly five years ago, on a dividend inclusive basis this has turned out to be one of my best long-term investments, ever.

    However I see the current buying being the blind purchasing of a 'quality defensive utility' and the Panther senses are tingling that this is more than fully priced.

    So, I am wondering whether to follow my version of technical analysis on this and sell on the next bout of price weakness and may be buy a property to live in and some other utility instead.
    om mani peme hum

  15. #1200
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    Yes, I think you're right. I'm about 5 days ahead of you This week I sold two thirds of my electricity sector stocks, my largest holding at 18 per cent of my portfolio. Remarkably, despite the chaos, or because of it, they were close to 52 week highs. It took me longer than expected for them to sell and while I didn't have a monster holding I still had to do it in bite size chunks over the last 5 days. I can't imagine what happens in our small market when more than a few people are heading towards the exit.

    I've also noticed the chatter about moving towards "defensive" stocks. For me "defensive" just means losing 25 per cent of my portfolio rather than 50 per cent, when things really get nasty. Most of us have been investing since 1987 and we know that when things go really south, no one gets out of here alive. Cash is the only true defensive position.

    Just to come completely clean, I had an extra incentive to sell. I borrowed a little over $200,000 to invest in this sector in 2014 and, up until the sale, still owed $180,000. It's all worked out well with the tax deductions, appreciation and exceptional dividends. However given the strong performance of the shares lately, the poor performance of every other sector, and the fact that I'm retired, it was time to settle up. No one ever went broke taking a profit, especially when it wasn't their money to begin with. Buffet is right of course, never borrow money to invest. On Friday afternoon I was chuckling and thought "what was I thinking!". Still, all's well that ends well. But no more debt shenanigans for me - not that I could if I wanted to, banks don't look fondly on retirees.

    Notwithstanding all of the above, I'm keeping the remaining electricity shares. I now own them free and clear, the dividends are intoxicating and interest rates are going nowhere. The dividends also make me feel as though I get my electricity for free.
    Last edited by Bobdn; 23-12-2018 at 08:33 PM.

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