MCY Mercury NZ ( MRP Mighty River Power)

[Harvey Specter]

Short memory HS. The current National Govt took the punter's money and then set the price knowing full well that what the opposition's policy would be.

the IPO price us irrelevant as MRP aren't paying that. Are you saying there is no discount in the CURRENT price for Greens/Labour policy?

[Harvey Specter]

Sorry, I don't understand this. Could you elaborate?

MRP did not do the IPO (ie. No new shares), it was their 100% shareholder.

The buy back is therefore independant to the IPO and the BoD only decisions are whether the current SP is undervalued and whether a share buyback is the best use of surplus cash. They have answered inthe affirmative, but haven't given a detailed explain action of why and in particular how the impact of the Greens/Labour policy effects that first decision. If implement in full ASAP, the current SP is overvalued and they would have done their remaining shareholders a disservice.

[mouse]

Another Disaster!!!!!!!!!!! Today!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How will Govt get Mum and Dad investors to queue up for Genesis Shares, when cash is lost on both Mighty River AND Meridian? Both below IPO price. With MRP well below IPO price. Where will it end? What is happening to the World?

[Bobcat.]

I'm left wondering if Key's nod of approval to Orion's price hike confirmes his preference that Christchurch City fund more of their rebuild, and therefore central government (NZ taxpayers) less of it (?).

I bet other power companies would now love to follow suit.

[Vaygor1]

Posted18-November-2013
.... after 1 month MRP are 30% of the way through the buy back process. Given the daily volumes traded on the market, MRP's buying has not been very aggressive to-date in my view, but so long as the shares stay around this price or lower and they maintain their current buying rate, they will complete the process before 31-Jan-2014. Nine months ahead of the deadline.

Well yesterday's announcement put the kibosh on that... I should have envisaged that a black-out period of MRP's buy-back would come into play at some stage.

MRP's share price will likely drop further as a result of them ceasing their buyback for 3 months, which will in theory have been artificially proping up the price since mid October. Perhaps down to $2:00 or less?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MRP/announcements/244547

[mouse]

Well yesterday's announcement put the kibosh on that... I should have envisaged that a black-out period of MRP's buy-back would come into play at some stage.

MRP's share price will likely drop further as a result of them ceasing their buyback for 3 months, which will in theory have been artificially proping up the price since mid October. Perhaps down to $2:00 or less?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MRP/announcements/244547

Oh, No! Just when I thought that MRP would buy the abandoned shares, they stop. For Three Months, or thereabouts. And they have already spent half the $25 million.
But think. Where the 'regulator' struck was in monopolies. Like Orion and the likes. We cannot expect power prices to be 'regulated' since they are not monopolies. In fact, I have an offer today from Meridian to supply me power. I shall ring Genesis on Monday to find their reaction. I suspect the selling of power company shares in NZ is coming from overseas. Take Courage!

[CAM]

Well yesterday's announcement put the kibosh on that... I should have envisaged that a black-out period of MRP's buy-back would come into play at some stage.

MRP's share price will likely drop further as a result of them ceasing their buyback for 3 months, which will in theory have been artificially proping up the price since mid October. Perhaps down to $2:00 or less?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MRP/announcements/244547

So a buying opportunity when the price drops and a selling opportunity when the buy back resumes?? Or a chance to short the shares now?

[Vaygor1]

Oh, No! Just when I thought that MRP would buy the abandoned shares, they stop. For Three Months, or thereabouts. And they have already spent half the $25 million.
But think. Where the 'regulator' struck was in monopolies. Like Orion and the likes. We cannot expect power prices to be 'regulated' since they are not monopolies. In fact, I have an offer today from Meridian to supply me power. I shall ring Genesis on Monday to find their reaction. I suspect the selling of power company shares in NZ is coming from overseas. Take Courage!

Oh I have no problem in the price dropping. The more they drop, the more I will buy! Did this with RYM from Sept 2007 to Nov 2008. Also did the same for PWC back when they were on the market. If these shares had not dropped (thus causing me to buy more than I ever imagined), then I would still be doing okay, but would be nowhere near the position I am in now.

[Vaygor1]

Well yesterday's announcement put the kibosh on that... I should have envisaged that a black-out period of MRP's buy-back would come into play at some stage.

MRP's share price will likely drop further as a result of them ceasing their buyback for 3 months, which will in theory have been artificially proping up the price since mid October. Perhaps down to $2:00 or less?
https://www.nzx.com/companies/MRP/announcements/244547

So a buying opportunity when the price drops and a selling opportunity when the buy back resumes?? Or a chance to short the shares now?

Buying more when/if the price drops? YES. I never went into the IPO and have bought cheap. Happy with the price I have bought. Happy to buy cheaper.

Selling when the buy back resumes? NO. Keep for divvy's or maybe sell around $3.00 which will occur in the next 18 months. Equals 50% return + divvys in 1.5 years. Not bad (if you think I'm right). I will even hazard a guess and say Feb 2015... 15 months from now.

Shorting now? NO. Too risky and too short term a strategy for me. Although propping up the price a bit, MRP's buyback wouldn't have that much of an impact on the share price if you look at average daily trading volumes. Market sentiment hearing about the buyback on hold for 3 months will drop the price more than the immediate effect of the buyback suspension itself imho.

[Wolf]

Geothermal power station down... Dam. Tossing up between putting them in the bottom draw for a year or so or throwing them out.