MCY Mercury NZ ( MRP Mighty River Power)

[Baa_Baa]

I don't think they have anything to hide, why would they? The Waikato river does not drive the turbines per se, it is the controlled spill from the dams on the lakes that drive the turbines that generate the power (hence controlled lake levels). The river tops up the big lake and then they control how much water is in each lake, and therefore each downstream section of the river, by spilling from each subsequent lake at varying rates until there are no more dams. There is take off along the river/lakes say for irrigation, but there is also inflow from tributary streams and springs.

I think you will find this information is a classic case of smoke in mirrors.
I note the charts both short and long term only relate to the level of the lake when the real measure for MRP is water flow down the Waikato river.
You would think they would correlate quite nicely but as there are many other users of the water from the river they often do not.
Whilst the long term water levels of lake Taupo show in 2013 and in 2014 the level was lower than now the river flow charts show the current river flow levels are as low if not lower than those years.
my post 579 has the link to these figures.
More intensive farm irrigation maybe the cause.
Levels of lake Taupo mean F all to MRP.....it's the river flow for driving the turbines that matter and the fact that they choose to cover the lake levels more thoroughly than the water flow levels means they have something to hide........smoke and mirrors stuff PT.

[Snow Leopard]

I think you will find this information is a classic case of smoke in mirrors.
I note the charts both short and long term only relate to the level of the lake when the real measure for MRP is water flow down the Waikato river.
You would think they would correlate quite nicely but as there are many other users of the water from the river they often do not.
Whilst the long term water levels of lake Taupo show in 2013 and in 2014 the level was lower than now the river flow charts show the current river flow levels are as low if not lower than those years.
my post 579 has the link to these figures.
More intensive farm irrigation maybe the cause.
Levels of lake Taupo mean F all to MRP.....it's the river flow for driving the turbines that matter and the fact that they choose to cover the lake levels more thoroughly than the water flow levels means they have something to hide........smoke and mirrors stuff PT.

All I said was:

Lake Taupo levels and flows starting to look better - I hope it continues...

BTW: They very kindly do provide the flow information for you.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jantar]

I think you will find this information is a classic case of smoke in mirrors.
I note the charts both short and long term only relate to the level of the lake when the real measure for MRP is water flow down the Waikato river.
You would think they would correlate quite nicely but as there are many other users of the water from the river they often do not.
.....

You would expect very little correlation between the lake level and river flow. MRP control the gates at the Taupo outflow, and hence the river flow. The correlation is between inflows and lake level, with the level lagging the inflows. The outflow from the lake will correlate directly with electricity demand and inversely with thermal generation.

I don't think they have anything to hide, why would they? The Waikato river does not drive the turbines per se, it is the controlled spill from the dams on the lakes that drive the turbines that generate the power ....

The spill from the dams down the river chain is water that has bypassed the turbines. Water passes from one dam to next either via the turbines, or via controlled spill, or both.

Water held in Lake Taupo is like money in the bank. Its available but not yet utilised. Once water has been released from Lake Taupo its like drawing money via an ATM; its now in your pocket, but not yet used. When the water has flowed out from Karapiro (the last dam in the chain), then it is gone (spent), and is now back in general circulation for the water cycle to eventually dump it back on Ruapehu where it can be used again.

[Jantar]

Saying MRP control the flow is technically correct but that control is governed by a very strict set of resource consent rules that they must adhere too and have very little control over.

They must abide by minimum and maximum levels in Lake Taupo, and minimum flows in the Waikato river measured just below the control gates and at the outflow of Karapiro. Outside of those parameters they have very little restriction. Deciding the timing and quantity of the water release was my job in a previous position I held.

[Snow Leopard]

thanks Janter.....do you think the latest lower than normal river flow levels (about 4-5 months worth) will hit their bottom line materially.
I believe it has and that's why you are seeing a sell down in SP.
Interested to here any other idea's why MRP has sold off in SP more than it's rivals.

Last financial year they had an EBITDAF of $504M and forecast for this (2015) FY a range of $495M - $520M.

With the Half Year ann they revised down the EBITDAF guidance to the $480M - $500M range.

For whatever reason they did not draw down Lake Taupo as much as they have done in previous years, but how much effect this has had on the river flow I do not know (but if you wanted to you could do a little research and work it out).

Anyway that guidance currently still stands.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jantar]

thanks Janter.....do you think the latest lower than normal river flow levels (about 4-5 months worth) will hit their bottom line materially.
I believe it has and that's why you are seeing a sell down in SP.
Interested to here any other idea's why MRP has sold off in SP more than it's rivals.

Unlike the South Island lakes, Taupo gets most of its inflows during the winter. On that basis I don't believe MRP will be at all woriied by bthe present levels. In fact I believe they will be quite pleased with where they are. Meridian is the company that will be most likely to suufer slightly if Manapouri doesn't get some decent inflows over the next 6 weeks.
Contact and Genesis are insulated from the effects of low lake levels due to having standby thermal generation, and I notice that Contact is still actively dropping the level of Hawea much earlier than in most other years.

[Snow Leopard]

MRP pushing hard up from oversold, back above the 200EMA and positive money flow. Bonus shares for IPO holders just around the corner.
Attachment 7281
BAA

I see that sideline as pointed out that the Yahoo data for GNE is incorrect.
This chart is based on imaginary data as well.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks, I'll remove my post.

I see that sideline as pointed out that the Yahoo data for GNE is incorrect.
This chart is based on imaginary data as well.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Attachment 7285

50 & 200 day Exponential Moving Averages for the fun of it.

Some will attach significance to the price 'bouncing' off the 200 EMA - diversity is to be welcomed.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Could you please explain the PE of 43.6 seems high to me? appreciate your insight.

In a word - No.

FY14 (30-Jun-14) EPS was $0.153 (PE=20 @ SP of $3.05)

HY15 (31-Dec-14) EPS was $0.006

But we pay little attention IFRS NPAT for any company and read the detail of the accounts.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger