MCY Mercury NZ ( MRP Mighty River Power)

[fish]

Hail now, snow soon. It must boost electricity demand. Solar Energy is a bit of cold comfort at the moment.
Plus talk of Greenhouse Gas Reduction means using Hydro generation.

Demand hasn't caught up with the extra geothermal and rain this winter.
Looks like prices are lowish this winter

[couta1]

So the general consensus on here is that Tiwai won't close otherwise why the extension? I see this stock heading back to $3 once this is confirmed. I'm thinking of doing a serious averaging down as my current average is $3.24, risky if Tiwai closed but upside more likely plus a good divvie coming up

[rbel038]

So the general consensus on here is that Tiwai won't close otherwise why the extension? I see this stock heading back to $3 once this is confirmed. I'm thinking of doing a serious averaging down as my current average is $3.24, risky if Tiwai closed but upside more likely plus a good divvie coming up

from what I understand the contract allows the smelter to reduce the take to 400MW. I suspect they are trying to get the best deal for the remaining MW they need. I doubt this has anything to do with MRP though, being north island generation.

[Crackity]

So the general consensus on here is that Tiwai won't close otherwise why the extension? I see this stock heading back to $3 once this is confirmed. I'm thinking of doing a serious averaging down as my current average is $3.24, risky if Tiwai closed but upside more likely plus a good divvie coming up

I'm confident Tiwai ain't closing anytime soon!

[trader_jackson]

I am very confident in MRP long term, I am looking forward to August 3 when they announce they are not closing and send all the gentailers on a steady upwards march, with this in mind, no reason why this shouldn't be a $3.50+ share by the year's end. (all this rain must be good for generation! all this cold must be increasing power usage! - wonder when market will catch on to this?)

[Baa_Baa]

I'm confident Tiwai ain't closing anytime soon!

I'm not as supremely confident as you Crackity, but it seems less likely than more likely at the moment, albeit keeping the whole energy sector on tenterhooks.

It's interesting to me though that MRP has sold off virtually the entire 'election premium' which began around the IPO price (after being sold down about 20% from IPO!) and has found renewed buyer support back around the IPO price! What a rollercoaster ride for a boring utility eh?

Indicators have ticked upwards and the price has ranged this week right in between my fav 10/14 weekly EMA's. MRP has been just a bit too volatile for me so I sold my IPO holding recently to at least book a modest capital gain + dividends = 17.4% (still holding MEL though).

A move through my EMA's and a solid close above $2.93 resistance with a rising trend would have me back in, but closely watching. My concern is that MRP along with the other power company's, post a Tiwai decision, and pending the next election, is that they will find a fair value range .. and for MRP that could well be in the $2.61-$2.93 band. We need to keep in mind these gentailers aren't growth companies (imho).

Which would mean, goodbye capital gains and hello boredom, which could only be offset by consistent profits and returns to shareholders. Careful what we wish for.

Attachment 7481

[troyvdh]

dear long road home...with all due respect ..it will be...me..all of us have made mistakes...but honestly how can you ave at 3.24...did you look at the 2 year chart...were you there at 1.80....again go well mate...your posts are quite depressing.....cheers mate

[couta1]

dear long road home...with all due respect ..it will be...me..all of us have made mistakes...but honestly how can you ave at 3.24...did you look at the 2 year chart...were you there at 1.80....again go well mate...your posts are quite depressing.....cheers mate

Troyvdh MRP traded for quite a while in the $3.00-$3.56 range so what is so unusual at holding at a $3.24 average? My above post is just an honest expression of what I'm planning on doing in the coming week and seeing what others thoughts are re MRP at the moment, if you find my posts depressing perhaps that's more a reflection of your own state of mind? Cheers. PS-The day I have to be a pretender or game player to please others on here will be the day I leave this forum.

[xafalcon]

I believe that periods of volatility in all the generator shares will be the norm while Rio Tinto are involved. Their brinkmanship/bully-boy negotiating style keeps certainty a short-range luxury. Their electricity contract periods seem very short duration. All generator stocks are effected because power that is no longer sold to Tiwai Pt can be sold elsewhere, but some generator(s) will miss out due to current over-capacity. The HVDC link constraint exposes MEL to this more than others.

I do not expect the smelter to close, in fact I believe the main part of the deal has already been agreed back when manapouri transformers were purchased 12 months ago.

But I don't think MRP will become the boring utility stock until new smelter owners are found and they agree to some longer duration electricity supply contracts (whoever they are with)

Personally I prefer GNE over MRP

[trader_jackson]

As I like to say: "GNE or MRP?" ... "Why not both?" (... Followed by numerous cheers)