sharetrader
Page 66 of 66 FirstFirst ... 16566263646566
Results 1,301 to 1,309 of 1309
  1. #1301
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    53

    Default

    Nice to have the dividend in the bank this morning, good reliable payer in a sea of cancelled and reduced dividends.

    Personally, I'm a wee bit sad it jumped up after Tiwai announcement as it was shaping to come back to a more realistic price to top up, I'm happy to stay on the sidelines at the current price.

  2. #1302
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,994

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Norwest View Post
    Nice to have the dividend in the bank this morning, good reliable payer in a sea of cancelled and reduced dividends.

    Personally, I'm a wee bit sad it jumped up after Tiwai announcement as it was shaping to come back to a more realistic price to top up, I'm happy to stay on the sidelines at the current price.
    nearly at all time highs now , maybe you should have just done it
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  3. #1303
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Location
    LA/ChCh/AKL
    Posts
    1,176

    Default

    Look at the SP now...

  4. #1304
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    53

    Default

    Yes its definitely shot up a lot since I last posted several weeks ago - I believe it has overshot in my opinion and I'm posting this as a happy holder.

    I still stand by my conviction that there will be better opportunities for me to continue to accumulate more of this stock at better prices in the next 12 months.

  5. #1305
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,994

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Raz View Post
    Look at the SP now...
    truely wonderful sight it is
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  6. #1306
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    7,224

    Default Equity Ratio: FY2013 to FY2020

    [
    The following is a break down of the equity ratio of what was once 'Mighty River Power' and is now 'Mercury Energy' since float time.

    Equity (A) Assets (B) Equity Ratio (A)/(B)
    FY2013 $3,182m $5,802m 0.5484
    FY2014 $3,219m $5,689m 0.5658
    FY2015 $3,337m $6,058m 0.5508
    FY2016 $3,315m $6,085m 0.5448
    FY2017 $3,308m $5,997m 0.5516
    FY2018 $3,286m $6,091m 0.5395
    FY2019 $3,537m $6,484m 0.5455
    FY2020 $3,739m $6,885m 0.5431


    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  7. #1307
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    7,224

    Default 'Thin Air Capital' Reprised

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    They say you can't get something out of nothing. But with the NZ electricity market, I am not sure that holds. Here is how the 'something out of nothing' method works:

    1/ Revalue assets to market.
    2/ Note that after revaluation your return on assets in not acceptable.
    3/ Put up prices to get an acceptable return on assets.
    4/ Price increases now increase underlying value of assets
    5/ Go back to step 1

    The power companies are very keen on using EBITDAF as a measure of their operating performance. But MCY/MRP has another profit stream, generated according to steps 1 to 5 above, not included in EDITDAF. These revaluations are based on future earnings projections. That means they might go down, although in practice I have never seen this.

    When the need for more electricity generation does become apparent, value will once again arise out of thin air based on increasing energy use projections. So Mercury (MRP now MCY) may never need to raise capital again to build new power stations!
    'Thin Air Capital' is not a concept I have discussed for a while. So it might be worth going over it again 'for those who came in late'. It is important because it provides one way of understanding why gentailers like Mercury, can trade on what look like 'ridiculous multiples' for a utility (Mercury I calculate is on a normalised historic PE of 44) and yet still be a worthwhile investment.

    Conventionally there are two ways to fund new projects:

    1/ Raise money from shareholders (shareholder equity)
    2/ Borrow money from the bank (bank debt)

    Yet in the New Zealand electricity market there is a third way. Look at your long lived generation assets. Decide they are worth a lot more than their 'book value'. Increase 'book value' to 'market value' by imagining new capital that you 'create out of thin air'.

    This somewhat unconventional way of raising capital is only possible because:

    1/ Over time the wholesale price of power increases
    2/ The cost of producing power from the long lived hydro assets and geothermal power stations remains largely fixed.

    So with power becoming more and more expensive on the market , and production cost not rising in tandem, these long lived generation assets become more and more valuable over time. In fact they become so valuable that building a brand new power station at today's prices can be done without raising any new money from shareholders. The way the electricity market is structured in NZ means that this practice can continue in perpetuity. Not all power companies use this method of funding new power stations (Contact Energy doesn't). But Mercury Energy certainly does. Mercury shareholders might consider 'thin air capital' a 'secret source of value' that conventional valuation metrics overlook. The obvious question is, how much 'thin air capital' has Mercury Energy accumulated? And can we take this as an indication of how much more thin air capital might be accumulated in the future?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; Yesterday at 06:20 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  8. #1308
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    7,224

    Default 'Thin Air' capital since the GFC (FY2020 Perspective)

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Time to update my table

    Reval. Hydro & Thermal Assets ($m) Reval. Other Generation Assets ($m) Total Revaluation ($m) Post tax New Capital Per Share ($m) Pre Tax Revaluation ($m) Pre Tax New Capital Per Share (c)
    2009 0 170.987 170.987 12.2 244 17.4
    2010 200.900 60.250 261.150 18.7 373 26.6
    2011 153.300 135.275 288.575 20.6 412 29.4
    2012 119.520 2.880 122.240 8.7 170 12.1
    2013 30.960 26 57 4.9 79 5.6
    2014 4 25 29 2.1 40 2.9
    2015 ? ? 356 25.5 497 35.5
    2016 ? ? =79+21 7.1 137 9.8
    2017 ? ? 38 2.7 52 3.7
    Total 102.2
    less Special Dividends Declared (per share) -10.4
    Residual Thin Air capital 91.8

    Note:

    1/ Capital per share figures assume 1,400m shares on issue throughout the whole comparative period.
    2/ 30% tax rate assumed up until FY2012. 28% tax rate assumed from FY2012 forwards.
    3/ I notice that after FY2014 the break down in the annual report between 'Hydro & Thermal Assets' and 'Other Generation Assets' has ceased.
    4/ In FY2016 I have added back the tax effect of the Southdown write down, to get the residual tax effect of the remaining generation assets.
    5/ Since I am counting 'thin air capital' as an extra return over and above dividends, I feel it is appropriate to look at the 'post tax' effect of the new thin air capital. That aligns more closely with the post tax effect of dividends. Dividends 'post tax' are what shareholders get in their bank account.
    6/ I have removed the special dividends declared over time , as these may been seen as a method of paying back excess 'thin air capital'.
    7/ For the calculation of the 10.4cps special dividends paid, see my post 1003 on this thread.

    91.8cps x 1,400m shares = $1,285m of retained 'hidden value' 'Thin air capital' over the years. Of course not all of this still exists because it has been used to build both the Nga Awa Purua (FY2010) and Ngatimariki (FY2013) power stations over the years. These power stations were built using a combination of new equity (the infamous 'thin air capital') and borrowings. We should also bear in mind that some of this thin air capital may be needed to retain the credit rating of the company. Put simply, the more capital the company have, the less borrowings they need. So some unspent thin air capital could contribute to a better credit rating for the company.
    Time to update my table

    Reval. Hydro & Thermal Assets ($m) Reval. Geothermal & Other Generation Assets ($m) Total Revaluation ($m) Post tax New Capital Per Share ($m) Pre Tax Revaluation ($m) Pre Tax New Capital Per Share (c)
    2009 0 170.987 170.987 12.2 244 17.4
    2010 200.900 60.250 261.150 18.7 373 26.6
    2011 153.300 135.275 288.575 20.6 412 29.4
    2012 119.520 2.880 122.240 8.7 170 12.1
    2013 30.960 26 57 4.9 79 5.6
    2014 4 25 29 2.1 40 2.9
    2015 356 0 356 25.5 497 35.5
    2016 ? ? 100 7.1 139 9.9
    2017 0 38 38 2.7 52 3.7
    2018 0 40 40 2.9 55 3.9
    2019 109 71 180 12.9 250 17.9
    2020 182 31 213 15.2 296 21.1
    Total 133.5
    less Special Dividends Declared (per share) -10.4
    Residual Thin Air capital 123.1

    Note:

    1/ Capital per share figures assume 1,400m shares on issue throughout the whole comparative period.
    2/ 30% tax rate assumed up until FY2012. 28% tax rate assumed from FY2012 forwards.
    3/ I notice that after FY2014 the break down in the annual report between 'Hydro & Thermal Assets' and 'Other Generation Assets' has ceased. This distinction was reinstated in FY2017.
    4/ In FY2016 I have added back the tax effect of the Southdown write down, to get the residual tax effect of the remaining generation assets.
    5/ Since I am counting 'thin air capital' as an extra return over and above dividends, I feel it is appropriate to look at the 'post tax' effect of the new thin air capital. That aligns more closely with the post tax effect of dividends. Dividends 'post tax' are what shareholders get in their bank account.
    6/ I have removed the special dividends declared over time , as these may been seen as a method of paying back excess 'thin air capital'.
    7/ For the calculation of the 10.4cps special dividends paid, see my post 1003 on this thread.

    123.1cps x 1,400m shares = $1,723m of retained 'hidden value' 'Thin air capital' over the years.

    Of course not all of this still exists because it has been used to build both the Nga Awa Purua (FY2010) and Ngatimariki (FY2013) power stations over the years. These power stations were built using a combination of new equity (the infamous 'thin air capital') and borrowings. We should also bear in mind that some of this thin air capital may be needed to retain the credit rating of the company. Put simply, the more capital the company have, the less borrowings they need. So some unspent thin air capital could contribute to a better credit rating for the company.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; Yesterday at 08:35 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  9. #1309
    ... Ferg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Location
    Hawkes Bay
    Posts
    62

    Default

    Hello Snoopy

    Would a quicker way of getting this value be to look at the balance in the Asset Revaluation Reserve? The 2020AR has a balance of $3.28b. I also noticed the current year movement is "net of taxation". This balance would represent the accumulation of "thin air assets" or "thin air equity" since inception.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •