MCY Mercury NZ ( MRP Mighty River Power)

[trader_jackson]

Almost back into the $2.30's now..

[horus1]

read in NBR about solar coming . Watch volumes go down over 5 years

[trader_jackson]

Even if it was solar that was 'causing doubt'... why is MRP being hit extremely hard compared to other listed power stocks?

[horus1]

It may be El Nino which usually has a bigger affect on the NI catchments than the SI, although I think from memory it affects them too

[xafalcon]

read in NBR about solar coming . Watch volumes go down over 5 years

I do not see it that way.

Solar is 20% more expensive now than it was 18 months ago since CNY is tied to USD (most panels come from China). Meanwhile retail power prices are static and look like staying that way. So the cost recovery period has extended significantly, meaning solar is much less viable now than 18 months ago. There was no huge uptick in solar installations 18 months ago, so unlikely to be one in the next few years either.

In the unsubsidised NZ market, solar needs all these things to "make it happen"

- homeowner must have significant spare capital
- homeowner must expect to remain in current house for about 6-7 years just to achieve pay-back (cost parity), even longer for "cost saving"
- homeowner must not mind aesthetic deterioration
- homeowner must want solar
- homeowner must have energy supplier that allows grid-tied connection

Solar is a great idea, I am planning an install. But I can do it myself, which vastly improves economics. However the pool of potential customers who tick all the above boxes is small (alot less than the 3% annual electricity usage growth).

I do not see any decrease in electricity usage unless Tiwai reduces/stops production

[mouse]

Down to $2.40. Is it time to PANIC, or buy more????

[trader_jackson]

Down to $2.40. Is it time to PANIC, or buy more????

I'm thinking buy more, it is like when Genesis went down into the mid 1.60's a couple months back, it was stupidity driving the market, not fundamentals

[Antipodean]

Down to $2.40. Is it time to PANIC, or buy more????

$2.40 only on intraday and these are relatively small trades - definitely wouldn't make a decision to sell or buy based on that. Stick to the trends, fundamentals and your overall strategy. For example someone today bought 99 shares at $2.415 ($99) and paid $30 fee for the privilege - this is not the type of person to follow in behaviour.

[trader_jackson]

For example someone today bought 99 shares at $2.415 ($99) and paid $30 fee for the privilege - this is not the type of person to follow in behaviour.

Although this is possible, it is unlikely, it was probably the remainder of an outstanding order

[IAK]

It looks like Contact Energy is being hit too.